Thursday, February 27, 2014

Israel is Apartheid? “LOL”

     There are several phrases in English we use to express disbelief when we hear something so ridiculous that it defies all logic and reason. The basic one is the knee-jerk: “say what?!?” often accompanied by a facial expression somewhere between utter disbelief and having just bitten into a lemon. More sophisticated reactions are: “No way!”; “Are you kidding me?” or the less-than-kosher: “when pigs fly”. 
   Israelis use the Hebrew phrase “Hitschaktem otee” (the “ch” is guttural) – meaning: you made me laugh. Sort of like the computer-speak “LOL” – Laughing Out Loud.
  I found myself muttering this phrase often in the past few weeks with ever mounting anger and frustration over the well-orchestrated voices accusing Israel of being an “apartheid” state, like South Africa was until 1994.
   Israel has been called many things: innovative, brash, pioneering, unique, holy, caring, fascinating, historical, spiritual, annoying, enchanting, cultural, traditional, perplexing, altruistic, united, divided, protective, inclusive, apprehensive, generous, infuriating, magnanimous…etc., etc.   
   You can call Israel many things…but “apartheid” is not one of them! 
   These accusations are coming from the Palestinian, Arab and Iranian leadership, from Europe and North America, Asia, Africa, South America and even in the corridors of the UN.  They come from NGOs (Non-Government Organizations) as well as religious institutions.
   They form the basis of the growing BDS (Boycott, Divest and Sanction) movement and are the rallying cry for the new surge of anti-Semitism in Europe and South America.
   The widespread “Israel is Apartheid” offensive, culminating this week with a worldwide “Israel Apartheid Week” would perhaps be valid if the accusation was true. But it’s not true. It’s a lie.
    The Concise Encyclopedia definition of apartheid is: “(Afrikaans: “apartness” or “separateness”) Policy of racial segregation and political and economic discrimination against non-European groups in South Africa. The Group Areas Act of 1950 established residential and business sectors in urban areas for each “race” and strengthened the existing “pass” laws, which required nonwhites to carry identification papers. Other laws forbade most social contacts between those of European descent and others, authorized segregated public facilities, established separate educational standards, restricted each group to certain types of jobs, curtailed nonwhite labor unions, denied nonwhite participation in the national government, and established various black African “homelands”...
   Israel is being accused of practicing apartheid against Israeli Arabs and Palestinians. Not true. Here are some facts:

  • 20% of the citizens of Israel are Arabs. The majority are Sunni Muslims. 
  • They have equal legal, occupational, civil, residential, movement and business rights as the Jewish citizens.
  • There are absolutely no restrictions on where Israeli Arabs can live, work, vacation or travel
  • Many serve in the IDF 
  • They are members of Israel’s parliament and serve as government ministers
  • Salim Joubran, an Israeli Arab, is a permanent Justice on Israel’s Supreme Court
  • Israeli Arabs serve as ambassadors and consul generals around the world
  • The head of one of Israel’s largest hospitals is an Arab. 
  • The President of Achva College at Ben Gurion University is a Bedouin.
  • Arabs head University departments and are tenured professors.
  • Israelis overwhelmingly chose an Arab woman on the “Next Top Model” reality TV show.
  • The 2013 winner of Israel’s “The Voice” is an Arab female singer.
  • Israeli Arab Miri Anwar Awad represented Israel in the 2009 Eurovision Song Contest, in Hebrew and Arabic. 
  • Rana Raslan, a Sunni Moslem, was the 1999 Miss Israel, representing Israel in the Miss Universe pageant.
  • All Arabs, including Palestinians living in the West Bank have unsegregated access to Israel’s medical facilities, beaches, parks and recreation facilities.
  • Israeli Arabs, and many Palestinians and Arabs from other countries, have the same access to Israel’s Universities and Colleges as any Israeli or foreign student. 

I know that Israel is not perfect. The Jewish State is still a work in progress. But my answer to the ridiculous, unfounded, accusation of some arbitrary and widespread institutional practice of “Apartheid” against Israeli Arabs and West Bank Palestinians is: Hitschaktem otee!    
    Agree or disagree, that’s my opinion.

Thursday, February 20, 2014

A Purim Thought: Is Iran the New Persia?

    "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it", wrote George Santayana (1863-1952). But does that mean that those who do remember history will not repeat it? Not necessarily. Two modern cases in point: The rebirth of Israel as the historic Jewish homeland after two thousand years of exile, and the re-emergence of Persia (Iran) as a potential empire for the first time since the fall of the Sassanid Empire to the Muslim invasion in 651.
   Lt. Col. (Res.) Dr. Rafael Ofek, an Israeli expert in the physics and technology of nuclear power, wrote this week in Israeldefence.com, “… even under the reign of the Shah Iran aspired for the status of a regional superpower, and made no attempt to conceal its aspirations. However, since the Khomeini revolution of 1979, Iran has become the flag bearer of Shia Islam worldwide, and has positioned itself as the sworn enemy of the USA and the West”. 
   To expand its power regionally, Iran created Hezbollah as a militia which is now the dominating force in Lebanon. It also allied with the Shia related Alawite regime in Syria. 
   Following the US pullout from Iraq, Iran absorbed that country into its ever growing sphere of influence, making sure that a pro-Iranian Shiite majority government is in power.
    But Iran wants more: It wants to control the oil and minerals of the Arabian Peninsula. 
  In an article published in the newspaper Makor Rishon last December, Mideast expert Dr. Mordechai Kedar told of a meeting a few years ago in Tehran between a Kuwaiti parliamentary delegation and current Iranian president Rouhani, then Chairman of the Iranian parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee. Rouhani made it clear to the Kuwaiti delegation that in his country’s opinion, the entire western coast of the Persian Gulf was Iranian sovereign territory that Iran will dominate when the time comes.
   Iran also plans to dominate Afghanistan. In a recent meeting in Tehran, Afghan President Hamid Karzai and Iranian President Rouhani signed an agreement to enhance “regional security” opposite the America’s efforts to persuade the Afghanis to agree to an extended Statement of Forces Agreement (SOFA). 
   What the Iranians really want is control of Afghanistan’s yet to be exploited vast deposits of oil and gas reserves, as well as rich deposits of various metals and minerals.
   According to Dr. Kedar, in 2006 Karzai rejected any attempt by Iran to intervene in Afghanistan. Today, however, in view of the fact that the US armed forces will pull out in about a year’s time, and his belief that the USA is about to abandon him to the Taliban, he feels he must yield to the empire-building ambitions of Tehran. No wonder Karzai is so far rejecting the agreement that would allow American military bases to continue to operate in Afghanistan.
  Dr. Kedar explained in his article why Tehran wishes to prevent Afghanistan from allowing foreign troops to remain on her soil. Firstly, Iran wishes to demonstrate that it is the “landlord” in central Asia and the Islamic world. In Iran’s view, driving the USA out of the region will be celebrated as a victory of Shia Islam over the infidels, including Sunni Islam led by Saudi Arabia. The other reason, according to Dr. Kedar is that US bases in Afghanistan will be used by American intelligence for monitoring communications and sending agents, especially against the Iranian nuke program.
  Dr. Ofek notes that terrorism has been a primary instrument employed by Tehran for the purpose of promoting its objectives around the world. While these activities focused primarily on “soft” Israeli targets, there were others, like the attempt in 2011 to assassinate the Saudi Arabian ambassador to the USA.
  But the “crown jewel” of the Iranian regime is the establishment of a pretentious technological infrastructure, with the emphasis placed on the nuclear program and the space program. The world has not been convinced yet that these programs are intended “for peaceful purposes”, as Tehran proclaimed. The Geneva agreement may slow down Iran’s nuclear weapon program, but it is reasonable to assume that once Iran’s economy has recovered, it will revert to its plans and speed up its military nuclear program.
   The weak resolve of the West in the recent Geneva agreement will just increase Iran’s appetite for dominating its neighbors. One country Iran is eying is Pakistan, with a sizable Shiite minority and a considerable nuclear arsenal which the Iranians would like to control before some of it is transferred to Saudi Arabia and other Sunni countries.
    As Dr. Ofek notes: “If the world fails to stop Iran, then in a few years’ time it will expand further and further, and we might, heaven forbid, once again witness a Persian Empire extending “from India even into Ethiopia” (Esther 1, 1), as in the days of king Ahasuerus (Xerxes)”.  Only this time with nukes – and no shortage of Hamans...
   It looks like our memory of the past is not preventing a repeat of it. 
    Agree or disagree, that’s my opinion.

Thursday, February 13, 2014

Mideast Snapshot February - 2014

 “What’s going on over there?” is a question I’m asked daily – at work, at lunch meetings, at my grandkids’ games…even at the doctor’s office.
      The question is serious, and comes from a real concern. Everyone has ‘skin’ in the rapidly changing, often confusing and highly volatile developments in that region. We all know that one way or another, what happens in the Middle East will have a direct impact on us, our families and our future.
   So starting this week, from time to time this column will answer the question, and give a snapshot of the current status of various Mideast issues.
   Iran: The Geneva “agreement” of last November between Iran and the P5+1 powers morphed into the “JPA” (Joint Plan of Action) that was supposed to make sure that during a six month period of negotiating an end to its nuclear weapons program, Iran would halt all enrichment and weapon development activities in exchange for a “slight” easing of the US imposed economic sanctions. As of this week the sanctions are effectively gone and Iran’s economy is recovering, while the UN inspectors confirm that Iran is still enriching and stockpiling Uranium and is still constructing a heavy water reactor capable of producing weapons grade plutonium. The inspectors have not, as of this writing, been allowed into Iran’s secret nuclear weapon research and testing facility, even though this was agreed on in the JPA.
   Final agreement talks are scheduled to start on February 18 in Vienna. Iranian officials announced last week that they have no intention of giving up their nuclear program. Foreign minister Zarif said that the U.S. wanted Iran to give up major parts of its nuclear program but such demands won’t be carried out. “America has wishes and those wishes are unlikely to come true” he said.
   And to prove some point, president Rouhani is sending their whole “Northern Fleet” (one destroyer and one supply ship) “towards the US Atlantic coast”. Remember Peter Seller’s hilarious 1959 movie “The Mouse That Roared”?
   Egypt: Despite being outlawed, arrested and with its top leadership on trial in Cairo, the Muslim Brotherhood has gone underground and is regrouping. According to Egyptian officials, the MB is building a formidable military force with the help of seasoned jihadists from Libya, Iraq Afghanistan and Syria, and are currently attacking Egyptian security forces in the South and Sinai. 
   The Egyptian military has declared all-out war against the MB, but will probably keep it low until after the upcoming presidential election, expected within the next 60 days. At the moment all bets are on Field Marshall Abdel Fatah al-Assisi winning the election. This is good for Egypt, good for Israel, good for Middle East stability and good for the US. 
   Syria: The UN peace talks between the conflicting Sunni rebel groups and the Assad regime have failed. As intense fighting continues, the civilian casualty toll rises by hundreds a week – on both sides. The Syrian government is committing extreme atrocities including ethnic cleansing, destruction of whole villages, the kidnapping, torture and murder of children and the use of “barrel bombs” filled with nails shrapnel and ball bearings that are dropped with devastating effect on residential areas.
   The Sunni rebel forces are fighting on two fronts: against the regime and between themselves. All sides are getting supplies and reinforcements from outside of Syria – including radicalized US citizens who are fighting with the Jihadists, gaining combat and terrorism experience…
   Turkey: Under growing regional isolation, a declining economy, expanding civil unrest, and broad accusations of corruption at the highest levels, the Islamist government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan has decided to accept Israel’s explanation for the 2010 Mavi Marmara flotilla raid, take the compensation offered and renew full relations with Israel. With a nuclear Iran looming, and under pressure from the Turkish military, this is a logical and step for both countries.
    Israel: Even if Secretary of State John Kerry succeeds in presenting an acceptable framework for continuing peace talks with the Palestinians – three towering and unbridgeable obstacles prevent a final deal from being reached anytime in the near future:

  1. The Muslim world’s carved-in stone, religion based absolute refusal to recognize Israel as the national homeland of the Jewish people 
  2. The Palestinian’s insistence of keeping their “right of return” national narrative.
  3. Israel’s ironclad pledge to never subcontract its security to a foreign military force.  

 So the answer to: “What’s going on over there” is…A lot. And it’s complicated, evolving and will probably change by the next snapshot. 
    Agree or disagree, that’s my opinion.

Thursday, February 6, 2014

Peace Talks – Now the Threats

    Jumping out of a C130 Hercules troop carrier 1,200 feet above the sand dunes of Palmachim, just South of Tel-Aviv, is a unique experience. Near the target landing area, the red “get ready” light goes on and the side doors are opened. The first thing you experience is a rush of hot air and the deafening noise of the powerful turbo-prop engines.
   Standing in the open door like a ski-jumper on the ramp, when the light turns green you push and step forward, straight into the noisy and turbulent backdraft of the nearest engine, and are immediately thrown sideways, horizontally, beyond the tale of the plane. Within seconds you feel a slight jolt as the static rip-cord deploys your main chute.
   And suddenly, as you seem to be just hanging there, you hear…absolutely nothing. Not a sound. The plane is already miles away. You’re platoon is scattered in two lines of olive green parachutes hundreds of feet behind you.
   After checking that your chute is fully open you look down to find the landing spot.  At first it seems that you are not moving at all.  But within moments the ground seems to be coming up towards you. At first very slowly, then faster and faster, until in the last few seconds it’s rushing at you so fast that you barely have time to brace for the impact.
  I remembered this while learning about John Kerry’s new threat tactic.
  Six months ago he was led to believe that after 65 years of failed attempts, he could establish a two-state resolution to the Israel-Palestinian conflict by the end of 2014. One of the key benchmarks, directly connected to the next Israeli prisoner release, is next month, when an agreed “framework” for final negotiations must be in place.
   With every trial balloon of possible “framework” issues having been rejected, so far, by both the Palestinians and the Israelis, and the March deadline rapidly approaching, we can guess what the Secretary of State is feeling: that the deadline seems to be approaching at ever accelerating speed. The ground is rushing towards him.
   Otherwise it’s hard to understand the series of unveiled threats to both Israel and the Palestinian leadership made by Kerry in recent days.
   According to reliable Palestinian sources, a frustrated Kerry recently threatened Palestinian president Abu Mazen that he would meet the same fate as his predecessor, Yasser Arafat, if he turned down Washington’s proposals for peace with Israel. Abu Mazen reportedly stormed out of the room. The Palestinians pounced on this statement as “confirmation” that Arafat was “murdered by Israel”.
   In December Kerry implied that if a peace deal was not implemented then Israel would face a third bloody Intifada. At a security conference in In Munich last Saturday, Kerry said that the “Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not sustainable. It is illusionary. For Israel there is an increasing de-legitimization campaign that has been building up. People are very sensitive to it; there is talk of boycott and other kinds of things. Are we all going to be better with all of that?"
   That statement was celebrated in Europe and the Arab world as a US endorsement of the growing BDS (Boycott, Diverse and Sanction) movement, and in Israel as a direct US threat to its legitimacy and economy.
   In Middle East tradition, negotiations, even over small deals, frequently take a long time – measured in years and decades rather than weeks or months. Rigid timetables, deadlines and benchmarks rarely work (example: Assad’s failure to turn over Syria’s chemical weapons on time), neither do threats...at least not to Israel.
   The Israelis and Palestinians have known since the UN partition vote on November 29, 1947 that the eventual end result will be two states for two people. They also know that the negotiations may continue, with different leaders and various interim agreements and accommodations, another 67 years or longer.
   Both sides are rejecting, each in their own way, the threats and pressures of a super-power that is actively and rapidly disengaging from the Middle East.
   The perception of the “ground rushing up” is real…but different for each party. For Israel – it’s the immediate probability of Iran having nuclear weapons and the region’s growing instability. For the Palestinians – it’s the potential loss of their perpetual and highly lucrative refugee status. For John Kerry and the White House, according to most US and Middle East analysts – it’s the upcoming 2014 and 2016 elections.
    Kerry made three jumps from three planes – Peace talks, Iran nukes and Syrian chemical weapons. Each time his parachuting technique was by-the-book. But each time the green light went on and he took that giant step into the backdraft, Kerry’s pilot had been way off course and off timing. Each of the three meticulously planned drop zones was missed by miles. The missions, so far, are failing.
   Just because the ground is rushing towards you doesn’t mean you’re at the right place – or that threats and/or bribes will get you where you want to be.     
   Agree or disagree, that’s my opinion.

Thursday, January 30, 2014

The Oracles of Davos

   Every era has its seers – inspired individuals (or charlatans) who can explain the present and predict the future.  Three thousand years ago in Assyria and Mesopotamia it was the “frenzied women” or “Mari”.  In ancient Egypt it was the goddess Wadget. The Greeks had Pythia, the oracle at Delphi, and in biblical times there were prophets. 
   Today we have the statements of participants at the annual World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland.
   From the WEF website: “The World Economic Forum is an independent international organization committed to improving the state of the world by engaging business, political, academic and other leaders of society to shape global, regional and industry agendas…the Forum is tied to no political, partisan or national interests.”
    Traditionally the Davos Forum is attended by world leaders or their representatives, diplomats, educators and many business executives – both active and retired.
    Though usually mostly technical and pretty boring, the Davos Forum always provides insight into the current state of the world in general, and the Middle East in particular (we remember how, a few years ago, Israeli president Shimon Peres stormed off the stage in the middle of a debate with Turkish prime minister Recep Erdogan after the latter accused him of being a “murderer”).
   With Shimon Peres, Benjamin Netanyahu, John Kerry and Iranian president Hassan Rouhani all attending and speaking from the podium - this year’s crop of on-the-record quotes gave us an abundance of clarity as to where the current Middle East initiatives really are…and where they are heading.
   Here is what these modern-day oracles said – and what it means.
John Kerry about the peace talks:

  • “The Palestinians need to know that at the end of the day, their territory is going to be free of Israeli troops…”
  • There should be “a full, phased, final withdrawal of the Israeli army,”
  • Mutual recognition of the nation-state of the Palestinian people and the nation-state of the Jewish people. 

Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas (not at Davos)

  • “Palestine can never recognize Israel as a Jewish state.”
  • “In a final resolution, we would not see the presence of a single Israeli — civilian or soldier — on our lands”
  • “No Israeli settlers or border forces could remain in a future Palestinian state.”
  • “Palestinians deem illegal all Jewish settlements within the land occupied in the 1967 Six Days War.”

Benjamin Netanyahu:

  • “I have said it before and I repeat it today: I'm not going to evict a single community, I am not going to uproot any Israeli from his home.”
  • “Any peace agreement with the Palestinians must include a long-term Israeli presence along the Jordan River”.
  • “That presence would protect Israel from the importation of terrorists from Jordan into a Palestinians state”.

Iran president Hasan Rouhani:

  • “I strongly and clearly state that nuclear weapons have no place in our security strategy, and Iran has no motivation to move in that direction.”

Netanyahu:

  • "Rouhani is continuing with the Iranian show of deception.
  • At a time when Rouhani claims that Iran is not interested in a nuclear project for military purposes, Iran continues to strengthen its centrifuges and heavy water reactor, and to arm itself with intercontinental missiles, the sole purpose of which is for nuclear weapons.
  • Rouhani has admitted that a decade ago, he deceived the West in order to advance the Iranian nuclear program. He is doing this today as well.
  • The goal of the Iranian ayatollahs' regime, which is hiding behind Rouhani's smiles, is to ease sanctions without conceding on their program to produce nuclear weapons.
  • The international community must not go astray after this deception, and it must prevent Iran from attaining the ability to produce nuclear weapons."

   One does not have to be a genius to interpret the insights of the Oracles of Davos.  It looks like 2014 will be a year of Iran becoming a nuclear power (unless they are stopped militarily), and no final peace deal between Israel and the Palestinians (unless the Palestinians get better leadership).
    I find it strange, though, that the oracles are silent on foreseeing, in these dangerous times, the appearance of a new, “responsible adult” super power to rule the region and maintain security and stability. Historically one always arrives when there is a leadership vacuum. Maybe next year at Davos…
   Agree or disagree, that’s my opinion.

Thursday, January 23, 2014

What Peace Process?

    Albert Einstein defined insanity as “doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results”. 
   The ongoing attempts over the past 65 years to establish a two-states-for-two-nations resolution in what was formerly the Western part of British Mandatory Palestine (The Eastern part is today’s Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan), can be seen as the poster-child for Einstein’s definition.
   On November 29, 1947, the UN general assembly voted to partition the area into two separate states – a Jewish state, yet to be named, and an Arab state, yet to be named.
   The Jewish population accepted the partition and on May 14, 1948, David Ben Gurion declared the establishment of the Jewish State of Israel.
   The Arabs, both within the partitioned area and throughout the Middle East, rejected the partition vote almost unanimously. They launched an all-out war against the fledgling Jewish state with the declared goal of “throwing the Jews into the sea”. They were unsuccessful, but vowed to continue trying to remove the “Zionist Entity” from their midst.
   This is why the “Arab State” mentioned in the Partition Resolution was never declared or established.
   In 1964, frustrated by the lack of support of the Arab leaders, a number of terrorist  groups banded together to form the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), declaring: "... the right of the Palestinian Arab people to its sacred homeland Palestine and affirming the inevitability of the battle to liberate the usurped part from it, and its determination to bring out its effective revolutionary entity and the mobilization of the capabilities and potentialities and its material, military and spiritual forces".  For the PLO, then and today, “Palestine” includes all of Israel.
   The Palestinian nation was born, and the PLO is recognized worldwide, to this day, as its sole representative.  Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) is the fourth Chairman of the PLO. 
   During the 1967 Six Day War Israel captured parts of Syria (the Golan Heights), Jordan (The West Bank) and Egypt (The Gaza Strip). Two weeks later the Israeli government offered to return everything, with minor border adjustments, to Egypt, Syria and Jordan. Israel’s only condition was a peace treaty that says “end of conflict.”
   When the PLO heads got wind if the Israeli offer they went ballistic, threatening the leaders of Egypt, Syria and Jordan that they will pay dearly for reneging on their promises of 1949 to destroy Israel.        
   Nevertheless, King Hussein of Jordan accepted the Israeli offer, but refused to receive back the West Bank. In 1970 a secret peace treaty was signed with Jordan, though the West Bank remained under Israeli control.
   Since 1967, there have been numerous diplomatic attempts to try to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian issue. They all failed. And for one simple reason: Since the PLO is the sole representative of the Palestinians, all negotiations, from the Oslo Accords in 1993 up to the current talks led by John Kerry, are with the PLO – not the Palestinian Authority. And the PLO cannot, according to its own charter, ever accept a Jewish State of Israel on what it calls the “sacred land of Palestine”. 
   More than that, the PLO charter specifically states that: "The claims of historic and spiritual ties between Jews and Palestine are not in agreement with the facts of history or with the true basis of sound statehood...the Jews are not one people with an independent personality because they are citizens to their states." (Article 18).
   And let’s not forget that Hamas, which represents at least 50% of the Palestinians in Gaza, the West Bank and abroad, is not participating and is on record that even just talking to Israel is a treasonous act – punishable by death.
     George H.W. Bush tried with Yitzhak Shamir and Bibi Netanyahu; Bill Clinton tried at Camp David with Ehud Barak and Yasser Arafat. George W. Bush tried with Arik Sharon, Abu Mazen, Ehud Olmert, Tzippi Livni and the Roadmap. Hillary gave it a shot and now John Kerry is back for his 11th visit since taking office with “new and improved” proposals that are sure to displease both sides.
   So will there ever be a peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians? I believe that there will be eventually, because there has to be.
   But it will take strong leaders on both sides able to “sell” the necessary compromises to their constituents in a way that will generate resounding positive votes in the inevitable respective national referendums.
   In the meantime it looks more and more that John Kerry, like his well-meaning predecessors, is just, as Einstein put it: “doing the same thing over and over again, expecting a different result…”
    Agree or disagree, that’s my opinion.

Thursday, January 9, 2014

Bring in the Clowns - Will 2014 be the Greatest Show on Earth?

As a young boy growing up in New York in the 1950’s, I remember looking forward to the annual family ritual of going to Madison Square Garden to see the Ringling Brothers and Barnum & Bailey Circus. It was a three ring spectacle with five rings. At the age of eight, I was constantly shifting my gaze so as not to miss anything. It seemed like well-choreographed chaos…with clowns appearing from time to time to screw things up.

At the start of 2014, the Middle East reminds me of the circus. Wherever one looks there are major, ongoing events taking place simultaneously. While seemingly unconnected, they are all happening inside one large “tent”, and therefor will eventually have an impact, to a lesser or greater degree, on everyone inside. Here are just some of the events we will be following in the weeks and months ahead:

  • The end of an era. With the notable exception of still very active Israeli president Shimon Peres, the imminent passing of Ariel (Arik) Sharon marks the end of the era of modern Israel’s founding generation. Soldier, politician and farmer, Arik Sharon was active at every major crossroad of Israel’s history. Frequently controversial, both revered and criticized, he has been instrumental, at many levels, in making Israel what it is today. I’ll cover his life in more detail in a future column.
  • The Israeli-Palestinian Peace Talks.   By all available accounts as of this writing, Secretary of State John Kerry’s recent series of meetings in the region did not advance the current round of talks. Key points of his proposed framework were rejected outright by both the Palestinians and the Israelis. In the meantime while the Israelis are continuing their promised release of prisoners, the Palestinians have hardened their positions, continue vicious public incitement against Israel, show hateful anti-Israel programs on educational TV stations and are allowing preparations for terrorist attacks. With Hamas and Fatah renewing reconciliation talks this week, no one believes that the nine-month timetable for reaching an agreement is realistic.
  • Civil War in Syria: Though “Peace Talks” are schedule to begin this month in Geneva, Assad, with massive support from Iran and Hezbollah and the diplomatic backing of Russia and China, has no incentive to cut a compromise deal at this moment. The rebel Sunni forces are divided and fighting each other with no recognizable central command or credible political leadership. Also – Israeli Experts say that the over 20,000 international Jihadists now fighting in Syria against Assad, are already marking Israel as their next target. 
  • Iran Nukes: Talks with P5+1 are scheduled to resume next week. As of this writing the “6 month hiatus” has still not yet started. Iranian high government officials brag that the Uranium enrichment is continuing at an accelerated pace, as is the completion of the Heavy Water reactor at Arak.
  • Egypt: As the new Constitution comes into effect, presidential elections are already in preparation. It is all but confirmed that the highly popular strongman General Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi will run for the presidency – and in all probability win.
  • Iraq: With violence now a daily occurrence, and in the noticeable absence of a peacekeeping or moderating power, the renewed Sunni-Shiite-Kurdish civil war is about to break out with brutal force. Can anyone say (with apologies to Yogi Berra): “Syrian déjà vu all over again”? 

   Just like at the circus, in the Middle East wherever you look there is action, danger, comedy, edge-of-your-seat nail-biting suspense…and, of course – clowns. Unfortunately, at the moment this circus doesn’t seem to have a ringmaster. And this is just the first week of 2014! Hold on to your seats and cotton candy – it’s going to be an interesting year...
   Agree or disagree, that’s my opinion.