Obliteration

In his 1996 movie "Eraser", Arnold Schwarzenegger played John Kruger, a U.S. Marshal working for the Witness Security Protection Program (WITSEC) specializing in "erasing" high-profile witnesses by essentially obliterating all evidence of their existence.

  

I was reminded of that movie while reading the most recent reports about how DAESH (ISIS) is literally obliterating centuries of Middle East cultures, religions and civilizations, in the ever-expanding areas under its control.

I'm not referring to their obsessive destruction of historical sites and holy shrines of other religions, or to the fact that, at this moment, DAESH is feverishly placing powerful anti-tank mines and explosives in and around the beautiful site of the oasis city of Palmyra, first settled some 70,000 years ago and containing monumental ruins of what was one of the most important cultural centers of the ancient world. Its imminent destruction will certainly be a loss, but...

No - the tragic "obliterating" that DAESH is doing so systematically and successfully is of living, breathing people and cultures. They are succeeding in a program of ethnic and religious cleansing on a scale that we have not seen since the Holocaust.

Syria, a "country" artificially created by the Western powers after World War 1, included various ethnic (Arabs, Turkomans, Circassians, Palestinians, Kurds, Yazidis, Druze), sectarian (Sunni Muslims including Sufis, Shiite Muslims including "Twelvers", "Seveners" and Ismailis, Christians of various denominations, Jews, Alawites, Alevis, Zoroastrians and more).

When the current civil war broke out on March 15, 2011, it was essentially a majority Sunni rebellion against a dictatorship of the minority Alawites, a Shiite breakaway denomination supported by Iran and headed by Bashir al-Assad.

As the war dragged on, the Sunni rebel groups merged into two main organizations: the Al-Qaeda franchise Jabhat al-Nusra, and DAESH - formerly known as "ISIS", "ISIL" "Islamic State" and "al-Qaeda in Iraq and Syria".

 While both adhere to, and demand, the most extreme interpretations of Islam and Sharia, and both use terror, rape, child torture and sex slavery and large-scale beheadings to force whole populations into total cowed submission, it is DAESH, as the largest, best trained, best led, best equipped and best financed terrorist organization, that sets the tone.

And the tone is horrendous.

DAESH and al-Nusra have declared an all-out war of extermination to annihilate any tribe, ethnic group or religion in the Middle East that are not Sunni Muslim Arabs.

The prime targets of DAESH are every Shiite, Christian, Druze, Kurd, Yazidi, etc., based on the explicit instructions of the 15^th century Islamic Scholar, Taki e-din Ibn Tamiya, who is considered to be the main authority of DAESH and Jabhat: "The Alawites and the Druze are apostates and must die. Take their women as concubines and their children as slaves. If the men beg for mercy or forgiveness, you must never give it".

Slowly, systematically and with overwhelming numbers and weapons, they take over community after community, conduct a quick "selection", immediately kill all the non-Arab or non-Sunni men, separate the women from the children and, after taking and brutally abusing their own "spoils of war", sell them to the highest bidder in the sex-slave markets.

The results: DAESH is succeeding - beyond its wildest dreams. Syria is disintegrating.

The Allawites have abandoned all their communities around the country and are flocking to the Western mountains along the Mediterranean - the historic Alawite homeland. Weak, desperate, outnumbered and outgunned they are hoping against hope that the Iranians, Russians and other countries will save them from a massacre. Wishful thinking since right now Daesh and Jabhat forces are just a few miles away and advancing...What's left of the Syrian army is joining the rebels, and Russian generals are negotiating deals with both rebel groups.

The Druze, a non-Muslim Arab sect that live mostly in the Southwest corner of Syria and practice a mystical, secret religion, declared "neutrality" in the civil war. But recent bloody skirmishes with Jabhat and ISIS in the North, including killing men, kidnapping women and children and desecrating their holy books, artifacts and secret prayer rooms have led them to issue a warning to the approaching DAESH forces in the North and South: "Don't even think about it!". Historically fierce and formidable warriors, the Druze will make DAESH and Jabhat pay dearly.

It is also more than reasonable to assume that because of longstanding excellent relations between the tightknit Druse communities both in Israel and in Syria, Israel will intervene, with overwhelming power, on their behalf.

The Shiites outnumbered and weak, they still have sporadic security protection from Hezbollah and units of the Iranian revolutionary guard Corp (IRGC). A small minority, located in villages in Southern Lebanon, they are petrified with fear not only for themselves, but mainly for the gold domed tomb in Damascus of their worshiped protector: Sayyidah Zaynab, Mohammed's granddaughter. DAESH has vowed to destroy the tomb and anything in it.

The Christians: The Sunni rebels have a popular battle cry since the beginning of the revolt: "The Christians to Beirut, the Alawites to coffins."

Most of the Christians that lived in Syria six years ago have fled to Beirut and beyond. Those few that remain are subject to a special and perverted form of brutality and death, men women and children.

Ancient churches are systematically desecrated and burned - often with the men, or whole families, still alive inside them.

For all intents and purposes, the 2,000 year old Christian communities and culture in Syria and Iraq are all but extinct. DAESH and Jabhat al-Nusra will not stop until there are no more practicing Christians within the ever-spreading caliphate.

In a recent interview on Israeli media, a spokesman for the 2,000 year old, 1.2 million strong community lamented as to why no country or major force in the Christian world, with the exception of a few small organizations, has come to their aid...or rescue.

The Merriam Webster dictionary defines "Obliterate": "...to remove from existence: destroy utterly all trace, indication, or significance of..."

If this does not describe what is happening to the Christians, Kurds, Shiites and other non-Sunni minorities in Syria and Iraq, together with thousands of years of their achievements and culture, then I don't know what does. And again...the world is silent.

Turkey's Election Results

Last week, some 86% of Turkey's 76 million citizens voted in the national parliamentary elections and essentially told President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Islamist who has ruled Turkey for the past 13 years, that his long-time ambition to become a "strong president", or as some of his close associates put it - a "Sultan", will not happen anytime in the near future - at least not through the ballot box.

Despite the fact that 21 parties competed for the 550 seats in the Turkish parliament, Erdogan really believed that his AKP party would increase its seats in the parliament to 400, comfortably over the 330 needed to make constitutional changes he wants.

But the voters thought otherwise. In what were by all accounts fair, clean and democratic elections, the voters gave Erdogan's Justice and Development Party, the AKP, less than 41% of the vote, about half of what they received in the last elections four years ago.

The final results were:

• AKP "Justice and Development" (right, Islamist) - 40.9% = 258 seats
• CHP "Republican People's Party" (center-left ) - 25% = 132 seats
• MHP "Nationalist Movement Party (far right) - 16% = 80 seats
• HDP "Peoples' Democratic Party" (left, pro-Kurdish, pro women, pro gays) - 13% = 80 seats

While the AKP received more votes than any other party and technically can govern as a minority government with the tacit support of the right-wing MHP, in practice neither it nor any of the other parties can really govern without a firm coalition.

Two problems here - first, historically no minority or coalition government in Turkey has survived long. Second, as of this writing no party, including the right-wing MHP, has expressed an interest in joining or supporting Erdogan's megalomaniac ambitions.

Soner Cagaptay, a Turkish expert and fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, noted that all the opposition spokesmen have said that their parties would not form a coalition with Erdogan's AKP. If no government gets a vote of confidence in the Parliament 45 days after the election, new elections must be called.

Steven A. Cook, an expert on Turkey at the Council on Foreign Relations, warned that Erdogan could be "setting things up for a snap election."

If this happens then the AKP could launch a blitz campaign, handing out promises and economic "goodies" while repeating convincing arguments that a robust, one party government with a strong leader is preferable to ongoing political and economic uncertainty, and reminding the voters that Turkey actually thrived economically during Erdogan's thirteen year rule.

Erdogan still vows to continue trying to shift Turkey from a parliamentary to a presidential system, insisting that it would create more efficient governance. Others say that his version would just lead to a tyrannical and authoritarian Islamist rule.

Interesting note: the clear victor in these elections is Selahattin Demirtas, the charismatic, 42-year old Kurdish lawyer who heads the HDP. Under his leadership, the party transformed from a group fighting mainly for Kurdish rights into a mainstream liberal party that advocates more rights for women, gays, and other minorities.

Supporters of Demirtas' HDP and the other minority parties registered a clear protest vote against Erdogan, though he still enjoys strong support among religious conservatives and the poorer citizens, thousands of whom joined the middle class during his terms of office.

Erdogan's main problem in these elections was his "neo-Ottoman" politics - his suppression of the media and perceived desire for absolute power, as well as his unpopular crackdown on the followers of the US based Muslim cleric Fethullah Gülen, many of whom he had arrested and tortured, after accusing them of launching a corruption investigation against him.

While no-one really expects major shifts in Turkish foreign policy, the popularity of pro-Kurdish HDP could increase efforts to grant more rights to Turkey's Kurds.

A coalition government, if one is established, might also be less interested on spending resources to oust President Bashir Assad of Syria, one of Erdogan's key foreign policy priorities today.

Regarding Israel, contrary to media reporting relations between the two countries have remained cordial and cooperative. Trade continues, Israeli tourists still go to Turkey (though less than in the past), and military to military cooperation, on a national interest basis, is good.

While remaining in NATO, Turkey will probably continue to let extremist Islamists from all over the world move back and forth across the border with Syria to join DAESH (ISIS) or Al-Qaeda's Al Nusra Front.

As Rand Beers, a former senior US national security official, said after the elections: "There is no chance of a solution in the region that does not involve Turkey."

Together with most analysts I believe that Turkey, regardless of its type of government, will continue to play a vital role in the region's politics.

The Never-ending War

Forty-eight years ago this week, Israel fought the shortest and most decisive conflict in its history to date - The Six Day War.

In May of 1967, Syria deployed almost its entire active and reserve armor and infantry combat force - some 70,000 strong in aggressive attack formations on the Golan Heights.

At the same time Egypt blockaded the exit from the Red Sea to Israeli shipping, while massing 100,000 of its troops in the Sinai, including seven armor and infantry divisions, four independent infantry brigades and four independent armored brigades. The Egyptians had 950 tanks and more than 1,000 artillery pieces.

Egyptian president Gamal Abdul Nasser became increasingly belligerent. A year earlier, he had announced, "We shall not enter Palestine with its soil covered in sand; we shall enter it with its soil saturated in blood."

A few months later, he expressed the Arabs' ultimate goal: "...we aim at the destruction of the state of Israel...the national aim is the eradication of Israel."

Taking these threats literally, the Israelis were very concerned. Recruiting most of its reserve combat units, Israel deployed a total strength of around 264,000 troops, divided between the three fronts (Egypt, Syria and Jordan). Since the bulk of this fighting force was, as mentioned, reservists, the call-up could not be sustained long since these reservists were vital to the economy, transportation and civilian life.

Against Jordan's forces on the West Bank, Israel deployed about 40,000 troops and 200 tanks (8 brigades). Mordechai Gur's 55th paratrooper brigade was summoned from the Sinai front (and subsequently captured the Old City and Temple Mount).

The balance was divided between the Northern and Southern fronts.

On May 14, Nasser ordered the UN Emergency Force, which was stationed in the Sinai since 1956 as a buffer between Israel and Egypt, to withdraw. Secretary-General U Thant complied with the demand.

Everything went downhill from there:

On May 18, after the UN withdrawal, the "Voice of the Arabs" radio station proclaimed: "As of today, there no longer exists an international emergency force to protect Israel. We shall exercise patience no more. We shall not complain any more to the UN about Israel. The sole method we shall apply against Israel is total war, which will result in the extermination of Zionist existence."

On May 20, Syrian Defense Minister (later president) Hafez Assad announced: "Our forces are now entirely ready...to initiate the act of liberation itself, and to explode the Zionist presence in the Arab homeland. The Syrian army, with its finger on the trigger, is united...the time has come to enter into a battle of annihilation."

On May 30, King Hussein of Jordan signed a defense pact with Egypt. Nasser then announced: "The armies of Egypt, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon are poised on the borders of Israel...while standing behind us are the armies of Iraq, Algeria, Kuwait, Sudan and the whole Arab nation. This act will astound the world. Today they will know that the Arabs are arranged for battle, the critical hour has arrived. We have reached the stage of serious action and not declarations."

The same day President Abdur Rahman Aref of Iraq declared: "The existence of Israel is an error which must be rectified. This is our opportunity to wipe out the ignominy which has been with us since 1948. Our goal is clear -- to wipe Israel off the map." On June 4, Iraq joined the military alliance with Egypt, Jordan and Syria.

The Arabs mobilized over 465,000 troops, more than 2,800 tanks, and 800 aircraft, exclusively to destroy Israel.

By this time, Israeli forces had been on alert for three weeks. The country could not remain fully mobilized indefinitely. It also could not let its sea lane from the Southern port of Elat through the Gulf of Aqaba to be blocked by Egyptian guns in the Straits of Tiran at Sharm-e-Sheik.

Israel decided to preempt the expected Arab attack, and to do so by surprise. The IDF commanders knew that if Israel waited for the massed Arab armies to attack first the country could have faced a catastrophic, existential outcome.

On June 5^th, Because of the imminent threat, Prime Minister Eshkol gave the order to attack Egypt. The rest is history.

Within six days, Israel defeated the combined Arab armies and legitimately took possession of the Golan Heights, the West Bank, East Jerusalem (including Temple Mount), the Sinai Peninsula and the Gaza Strip.

Three weeks later the Israeli government officially offered to give up almost every inch (with security necessitated adjustments) to Egypt, Syria and Jordan in exchange for peace treaties that included the phrase "end of conflict". There were no takers.

Eventually Jordan established a secret peace treaty with Israel in 1970, but refused to take back the West Bank.

The war that was fought 67 years ago this week was a war that every Israeli and many Palestinians truly believed would be the last one, and that it would lead to regional peace and prosperity - and a Palestinian State alongside Israel...if only Egypt had accepted Israel's offer and King Hussein had agreed to take back the West Bank.

Unfortunately the Six Day War turned out to be just another violent and bloody chapter of the "Never-ending War" for Israel's very survival- the war that started in 1947, and continued through 1956, 1973, 1981, 2006, etc., to this day, as Israel completes preparations for upcoming rounds in the North and South.

"Two States": Not the Season, Not the Time

King Solomon instructed us in Ecclesiastes 3 that: "To everything there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven..."  

For years I have been a strong advocate of a negotiated "Two States" resolution of the Israeli - Palestinian conflict that would not compromise Israel's security.

Today - with growing concern over developments in the Middle East, Europe and here in the US - I have come to the conclusion that now is the wrong time to restart the so called "Peace Process". One reason is that that none of the leaders currently in place - Israeli, American or Palestinian - has the political authority, personal courage or national interest to make the compromises needed to reach and sign a permanent agreement that will guarantee Israel's long-term security and very existence.

History and current events negate the possibility of any resolution in the foreseeable future that will not result in the destruction of Israel and the massacre of its Jewish and Christian population.

Historical background:

• 1947: The UN General Assembly voted to Partition Palestine into a Jewish state (yet to be named) and an Arab state (yet to be named). The Jews celebrated and established the State of Israel; Arabs rejected and launched a war to destroy the nascent Jewish State.
• 1949: Rhodes armistice talks. The Arab countries and Palestinian leaders rejected suggestions to revisit the Partition plan.
• 1967: After the Six Day War Israel offered to return Sinai and Gaza to Egypt, the West Bank to Jordan and the Golan Heights to Syria - in exchange for full peace treaties.
• But the newly formed Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) objected vehemently and threatened the Arab leaders. The PLO convened the Arab League that decided on the "three no's": No recognition of Israel; No negotiations with Israel and No peace with Israel.
• Only King Hussein of Jordan secretly made peace with Israel but refused to take back the West Bank, leaving the Palestinians living there stateless.
• 1973: After the Yom Kippur War, Israel and the US made several unsuccessful attempts to approach PLO leaders, including Yasser Arafat. In some cases the Palestinian interlocutors were murdered by rivals within the PLO.
• The best chances for resolution were during the administrations of Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barak Obama, when extraordinary concessions were made by Israel to both Yasser Arafat and later Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen), giving them over 90% of the area of the West Bank and 100% of the Gaza Strip. Both leaders rejected the offers and demonstratively walked away from the negotiating table...without making a single counter offer.

As Israel proved in the 2005 pull-out from Gaza, Israeli communities beyond the armistice lines (AKA "settlements") are not a hindrance to the peace process. Israel showed clearly that when national interest and security are at stake, despite the pain and cost, Israel is willing and able to evacuate and uproot whole communities. In conjunction with the evacuation of Gaza, Israel received written guarantees from the PLO leadership that there would be no terrorism from Gaza after Israel pulled out.

But just a year later Hamas, which is not a member of the PLO, violently took over the Strip and launched terrorist attacks that killed Israelis and started three wars.

This brings us to today:

• Abu Mazen is an illegitimate president, being in the 10th year of a three year term. The Palestinian Authority's parliament (elected ten years ago and also not recognized in Hamas controlled Gaza) has not met in years.
• All polls show that in the West Bank Hamas has grown in numbers of fighters and supporters at the expense of Fatah (which is Abu Mazen's faction in the PLO) and are accumulating weapons including rockets mortars, machine guns and vehicles. Their declared goal is to launch attacks against Israel's heavily populated center and coastal areas as soon as the IDF pulls out...if a hasty and ill-advised agreement is forced on Israel.
• ISIS has already infiltrated Gaza and is being reinforced there by anti-Hamas Salafi forces as well as defectors from Hamas. It's only a matter of time before they gain control of the missiles, rockets and tunnels Hamas has prepared over the past year, and launch attacks on Israel.
• The leaders of Hamas, ISIS and those who oppose Abu Mazen in the PLO, together with the commanders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC) and the Grand Ayatollah himself, have declared that any deal with Israel is only temporary, must start with a full withdrawal to the indefensible 1949 Cease Fire "Green" line and...eventually must lead to the destruction of Israel.

So...

1. With the Middle East currently in flames,
2. With an ever-growing ISIS literally on Israel's borders,
3. With the Palestinians having neither credible nor legitimate leadership,
4. With Israel's three regional allies - Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia embroiled in their own counter Islamist terrorism conflicts and,
5. With Bibi Netanyahu's new government hanging on by a razor thin majority of 1...and,
6. With the US apparently unclear as to what's going on in Iran...

...this is certainly not the "season" nor the "time" to re-open the Pandora's Box of the peace process.