Real and imagined threats to the U.S.

According to a Rasmussen poll published on October 27, "86% of likely U.S. voters now consider radical Islamic terrorism a threat to the United States". Only 12% disagree. Strange as it may be, both groups are right...and both are wrong - depending on how you construe three words in that sentence: "Islamic" "Terrorism" and "threat".

Here are my short and incomplete definitions:

• Islamic: motivated by a strict interpretation of some of the laws of Islam, as detailed in the Quran and the Hadith, to commit acts of extreme violence, cruelty and mass murder against people.

• Terrorism: performing acts of cruelty, physical abuse, kidnappings, starvation and killings for the purpose of breaking people’s will to resist submitting to an ideology, religion or servitude.

• Threat: Creating fear by having a real and imminent ability to bring pain, suffering, destruction, loss of life, liberty, quality of life, etc. to an individual, family, group or nation.

Using those definitions, let’s look at some of the known Islamic terrorist groups today, and what degree of threats they actually pose to the U.S.

ISLAMIC STATE (IS, aka “ISIS”, ISIL”)

1. Base: Syria 
2. Religion: Sunni Salafism 
3. Affiliation: Muslim Brotherhood. 
4. Strength 35,000-45,000 fighters. Heavily armed and trained. 
5. Growing?  YES 
6. Ideology: Jihadism; eradicating the Shiites, establishing an Islamic Caliphate in areas under its control (currently about half of Syria and Iraq). 
7. Threat to the US: VERY SMALL (unless it acquires nuclear weapons…).

Al-QAEDA

1. Base: Afghanistan/Pakistan 
2. Religion: Sunni Salafism 
3. Affiliation: Muslim Brotherhood 
4. Strength: 15,000-18,000 (estimate) 
5. Growing? YES 
6. Ideology: Establishing Worldwide Caliphate; punishing the West – specifically the US. 
7. Threat to the US – very high (see Khorasan below).

JABHAT El-NUSRA

1. Base: Syria. Main rebel group against Assad 
2. Religion: Sunni Salafism/Jihadism 
3. Affiliation: Al Qaeda 
4. Strength: 6,000 (including 60-85 Khorasan foreigners) 
5. Growing? YES 
6. Ideology: Same as Al-Qaeda 
7. Threat to the US – very high, mainly through Khorasan.

KHORASAN

1. Base: Syria – an independent group within Jabhat el-Nusra 
2. Religion: Sunni Islamism/Jihadism 
3. Affiliation: Al-Qaeda 
4. Strength: 60-85, mainly US, Canadian, Asian and EU citizens 
5. Growing? YES! 
6. Ideology: Execute numerous “spectacular” terrorist attacks in the US and Europe that exceed 9/11 in scope, casualties and media coverage. 
7. Threat to the US: Extremely high and immediate.

So among the Islamist terror groups we hear about in the news recently, there is no doubt that Khorasan, though smallest, poses the biggest and most urgent threat to the US homeland and citizens.

The positive side is that with good electronic (signal) and human intelligence (including on-the-ground “specialists” in Syria), and a decision to use whatever force is needed to prevent another 9/11 – the moment the opportunity arises (which unfortunately but necessarily will include targeting American citizens), there is more than a good possibility that this planned series of Al-Qaeda attacks can be stopped…at least for now.

So up till now the 86% in the Rasmussen poll were right.

But the 12% that did not consider Islamic terrorism, as defined above as a threat, were also right.

Just look at the series of “Lone Wolf” attacks that took place in the past few weeks. Not all of them were inspired by Islam and certainly not all followers if Islam are extremists or Jihadists. Most of them are typical Americans, bringing up families, who are loyal to this country and the US Constitution.

But then – so probably are the “Lone Wolf” terrorists. Those not affiliated to any organization, religion or group. They are individuals with “issues” who snapped and had access to a weapon. I believe that right now (and this could change), perhaps with the exception of a few dozen members of Khorasan in Syria, it’s the “Lone Wolf” terrorist that is the biggest threat to the United States.

Keeping our Eye on the Right Ball

Yes - Ebola is very scary.  And ISIS (ISIL), which the US and a bunch of coalition partners are currently dropping a few bombs on, even though it does not pose an immediate threat to the U.S. – or even Israel, is also scary.

The Al-Qaeda affiliated Khorasan group, which is feverishly recruiting and training radicalized, non-Mideastern looking young American and European passport holders for another mass- casualty 9/11 style strike against the U.S. is way above the two previous groups on the what-should-we–be-afraid-of list. But it’s not at the top – not by a long shot.

That honor goes to Iran, which with all the news about everything else going on in the world, seems to have fallen out of the headlines. And that can prove but fatal.

Just 12 months ago, before the Gaza war, Isis, Khorasan and Ebola in the U.S., the world’s focus was on the latest reports that Iran was close to break-out stage in the development of nuclear weapons. According to reports from both the UN’s watchdog International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and David Albright’s Institute for Science and International Security, Iran was between 4-10 months away from building its first nuclear bomb.

That fact, coupled with almost daily calls by various Iranian leaders for the destruction of the US and Israel led to economic sanctions being imposed on Iran.

At a conference in Geneva last November between Iran and the “G5+1” countries (US, UK, France, Russia, China + Germany), a tentative and time-limited verbal agreement was reached that was supposed to cool off tensions and enable talks aimed at reaching a permanent arrangement that would prevent Iran from building nuclear weapons while continuing “peaceful” nuclear research.

During this period Iran was to stand-down its Uranium enrichment process, dismantle several hundred centrifuges, reduce already enriched Uranium both in quantity and level, halt all construction on a new heavy water nuclear reactor (that could produce weapons-grade Plutonium) and allow IAEA inspectors to enter and monitor all suspected nuclear weapon program facilities.

In exchange there would be some lifting of the sanctions, based on the IAEA confirming Iran’s fulfilling its requirements.

The carved-in-stone date for the signing of the final and permanent agreement is November 24, just one month from today. So is the final agreement almost ready? Not by any account!

• The latest IAEA report claims that Iran has not honored most of its obligations from the November deal. 
• It also says that IAEA inspectors have not been given access to the highly secret Parchin facility, where nuclear weapon trigger testing and other nuke weapon related activities are suspected to be taking place, and had limited access to others. 
• Iran has not dismantled centrifuges as it was required, but has actually installed new, faster "next generation" ones that will shorten the "break out" stage once a decision to build a bomb is made.

In the meantime many of the sanctions have been breached and the Iranian economy is certainly not on the ropes at the moment.

As for the P5+1 talks – very little seems to have been achieved despite constant new concessions being made to the Iranian negotiators (who are described as “charming”, “attentive” and “sincere”), while getting nothing in return.

Israel’s minister of intelligence, Yuval Steinitz, wrote on October 19^th in an Op-Ed in the New York Times titled: “Don’t make a bad deal with Iran”:  “Israel is deeply concerned about the trajectory of the ongoing negotiations concerning Iran’s nuclear program. The talks are moving in the wrong direction, especially on the core issue of uranium enrichment.”

And the Los Angeles Times, quoting the Iranian Mehr news agency, reported on Tuesday that “The Obama administration has sweetened its offer to Iran in ongoing nuclear negotiations, saying it might accept Tehran operating 4,000 centrifuges, up from the previous 1,300.” And that “Abbas Araqchi, a deputy foreign minister and nuclear negotiator, told the Iranian parliament's foreign affairs committee that the U.S. "made concessions."

So why should Iran come to an agreement in November, when it can drag on the “talks”, continue enrichment and weapons development, while getting more and more “pot sweetening” concessions from the US and Western powers? 

I’m willing to bet that come November 24^th, we’ll see a flurry of diplomacy that will end with an extended deadline, more sanction concessions…and Iran ever closer to being a nuclear power.   

So while, Ebola, ISIS, and Khorasan are very scary, they are not existential. 

However there is no doubt in my mind that the fanatically led, revenge driven Shiite Islamic Republic of Iran remains today’s most foremost and immediate threat to the US, Israel and the world. We must guarantee that it never gets even close to obtaining nuclear weapons.

 And that is the only ball we should be keeping our eyes on.

The Wrong Way to Win a War

    About 2,500 years ago the legendary Chinese general, Sun Tzu, wrote “The Art of War”, a brilliant book on military philosophy, tactics and strategy that is still required reading for officers in the IDF and most armies in the world.

    Here are two quotes relevant to the current US war against ISIS:  

• “What is essential in war is victory – not prolonged operations.”
• “There is no instance of a nation benefitting from prolonged warfare”.

When President Obama, in his speech to the nation, declared war on the terrorist organization ISIS (aka: ISIL, IS), he said: “Our objective is clear: We will degrade, and ultimately destroy, ISIL through a comprehensive and sustained counter-terrorism strategy.”

In his speech the President also noted: “This is American leadership at its best:  We stand with people who fight for their own freedom.”

After two months of pinprick aerial attacks against ISIS targets in Iraq and Syria, it is clear that so far they have had little effect, if any, on the growth and expansion of ISIS, or the non-stop advance of ISIS formations on Baghdad, in the strategic Anbar province and most recently against the Kurdish town of Kobani on the Turkish border.

In Kobani, not only have ISIS fighters taken most of the town after several US air strikes, but according to reports, have brutally butchered civilian non-combatants. Al-Jazeera reports that one witness who escaped described the streets of Kobani as littered with beheaded Kurdish civilians, including women and children.

James Rush reported in the Daily Mail on October 13 that: “Refugees in Suruc, Turkey, have told The Daily Mail how relatives and neighbors were beheaded by the militants, while another spoke of how he had seen "hundreds" of decapitated corpses in the besieged town.” “Amin Fajar, 38, a father-of-four who left Kobani and made it across the border and into Suruc, told The Daily Mail: "I have seen tens, maybe hundreds, of bodies with their heads cut off”. “Others with just their hands or legs missing…I have seen faces with their eyes or tongues cut out – I can never forget it for as long as I live."

Prior to that, ISIS militants had laid siege to the town of Kobani for nearly four weeks, during which time the US launched several airstrikes against them.

A DOD (Department of Defense) newsletter on October 14^th reported that: “In Syria, 21 airstrikes near Kobani destroyed two ISIL staging locations and damaged another, destroyed one ISIL building and damaged two others, damaged three ISIL compounds, destroyed one ISIL truck, destroyed one ISIL armed vehicle and one other ISIL vehicle.”

“As part of these strikes, an additional seven ISIL staging areas, two ISIL mortar positions, three ISIL occupied buildings and an ISIL artillery storage facility were struck”.

OK - now let me get this straight – as hundreds or more trained and heavily armed ISIS fighters first shelled  the center of Kobani for over a week, forced over 200,00 people to flee the town as their possessions and family members were taken from them (to be abused and then sold into sex slavery), and then brutally took the town with only the woefully outnumbered and underequipped Kurdish fighters, many of them women, fighting an unsuccessful and hopeless rearguard action to stop them…the best that the world’s mightiest and most powerful military force can do against its declared enemy is to “strike”:

• nine empty staging areas 
• one truck 
• one “armed” truck 
• another “vehicle” 
• two mortar positions 
• four buildings 
• one artillery storing facility

Since there was no report of enemy casualties, one can assume that all the targets were empty.

I have to agree with Sun Tzu – This is not the way to a “degrade and destroy” victory. It is clearly just the start of years of another US “prolonged warfare”.

I also agree with another general who certainly understood how to win wars, General George S. Patton, who said: “No bastard ever won a war by dying for his country. He won it by making the other poor dumb bastard die for his.”

Isis today is over 30,000 strong and growing daily. President Obama called it a cancer. In his speech he said that: “it will take time to eradicate a cancer like ISIL”.

From my personal experience cancer is eradicated by aggressive surgery followed by non-stop aggressive cell-killing treatment. It’s not pleasant, but it usually works. 

It’s time to start implementing the right way to win this war. Otherwise this “cancer” as the President fittingly described it, will spread everywhere.

The Next Lebanon War?

Forty-one years ago this week, on Saturday, October 6, 1973, Syrian forces launched a surprise attack against Israel on the Golan Heights, while Egypt simultaneously attacked Israel across the Suez Canal.

Though Israel won that war, the national trauma of the first three days remains deep in the Israeli psyche. Everyone knows that Moshe Dayan was so concerned that he recommended an unconditional surrender, and Prime Minister Golda Meir, according to foreign reports, ordered that Israel’s so-called doomsday weapons, Jericho missiles with nuclear warheads, be prepared and armed for a possible “Sampson in the Temple” last ditch stand.

Israel never surrendered, and the Jericho missiles, which had been armed according to Golda’s orders, were stood down.

But despite winning the war on both fronts convincingly, the memory of “almost losing” explains why today Israeli’s are very concerned about the events in Southern Syria, where the Al Qaeda affiliated terrorist group Jabhat Al Nusra has captured now controls the “UN no man’s land” buffer area between the Israeli and Syrian parts of the Golan Heights. Tuesday’s attack from Lebanon by Hezbollah against an IDF patrol just added to the tension.

The reason for concern is that this is fulfilling a chilling prediction that Israeli Chief of General Staff, Lt. General Benny Gantz, gave last year on the high probability of a renewed war in the North.

Here are some of his observations: 

The Middle East is experiencing a period of what he called “instability squared,” which has completely unsettled the regional order. 

From dealing with an arena of functioning regimes, Israel, according to Gantz, now finds itself having to deal with states that are breaking up into secondary components, existing “at sub-state level but possessing significant operational capabilities.” 

War will remain what it was. The high friction with the enemy and the uncertainty will persist, but a gradual change in the modes of combat will take place. The IDF will confront an enemy possessing advanced capability, decentralized and camouflaged, and operating from within a civilian population.

The next campaign, according to Gantz, could open with a precisely fired missile that will hit the General Staff building in the IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv; or with a cyber-attack that will cripple everyday services, from traffic lights to banking; or with the detonation of a bomb in a kindergarten by means of a booby-trapped underground tunnel; or with a mass charge of Arabs at an Israeli town adjacent to a border.

Gantz then went on to detail a scenario in a specific arena: He spoke of a terrorist attack on the Golan Heights, where, after almost 40 years of total quiet, the border is now gradually becoming distressingly unstable.

In this hypothetical scenario, an explosive device will be activated against an Israeli patrol along the border. Three soldiers will be abducted, one of them a battalion commander. A jihadist organization – Gantz implied an Al-Qaida-inspired Sunni group − will take responsibility for the event. The attack will enflame most of Israel’s borders “in an immediate multiple-arena campaign.”

For its part, Hezbollah will fire volleys of rockets into Galilee, and jihadist organizations will continue trying to penetrate from the Golan. 

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The accuracy of the missiles will be greatly improved, Gantz added, “and if Hezbollah chooses to hit a specific target almost anywhere in Israel, it will have the capability to do so.” Hundreds of Hamas activists will try to overrun IDF checkpoints on the border with Gaza.

Israel will try to avoid inflicting casualties on enemy civilians, but will not be able to be completely successful. 

Given the serious damage that will be caused to the Israeli home front and the international pressure for a cease-fire, Gantz observed, “The hourglass gets turned over from the moment a war erupts. Israel pays a heavy price, in all senses, for every hour in which routine life is adversely affected. The clock obliges the IDF to work fast.”

Gantz referred to the outbreak of war in the North as a forgone conclusion, with only the timing unknown.

With the recent events – that “timing” may be very, very close.