Real and imagined threats to the U.S.

According to a Rasmussen poll published on October 27, "86% of likely U.S. voters now consider radical Islamic terrorism a threat to the United States". Only 12% disagree. Strange as it may be, both groups are right...and both are wrong - depending on how you construe three words in that sentence: "Islamic" "Terrorism" and "threat".

Here are my short and incomplete definitions:

• Islamic: motivated by a strict interpretation of some of the laws of Islam, as detailed in the Quran and the Hadith, to commit acts of extreme violence, cruelty and mass murder against people.

• Terrorism: performing acts of cruelty, physical abuse, kidnappings, starvation and killings for the purpose of breaking people’s will to resist submitting to an ideology, religion or servitude.

• Threat: Creating fear by having a real and imminent ability to bring pain, suffering, destruction, loss of life, liberty, quality of life, etc. to an individual, family, group or nation.

Using those definitions, let’s look at some of the known Islamic terrorist groups today, and what degree of threats they actually pose to the U.S.

ISLAMIC STATE (IS, aka “ISIS”, ISIL”)

1. Base: Syria 
2. Religion: Sunni Salafism 
3. Affiliation: Muslim Brotherhood. 
4. Strength 35,000-45,000 fighters. Heavily armed and trained. 
5. Growing?  YES 
6. Ideology: Jihadism; eradicating the Shiites, establishing an Islamic Caliphate in areas under its control (currently about half of Syria and Iraq). 
7. Threat to the US: VERY SMALL (unless it acquires nuclear weapons…).

Al-QAEDA

1. Base: Afghanistan/Pakistan 
2. Religion: Sunni Salafism 
3. Affiliation: Muslim Brotherhood 
4. Strength: 15,000-18,000 (estimate) 
5. Growing? YES 
6. Ideology: Establishing Worldwide Caliphate; punishing the West – specifically the US. 
7. Threat to the US – very high (see Khorasan below).

JABHAT El-NUSRA

1. Base: Syria. Main rebel group against Assad 
2. Religion: Sunni Salafism/Jihadism 
3. Affiliation: Al Qaeda 
4. Strength: 6,000 (including 60-85 Khorasan foreigners) 
5. Growing? YES 
6. Ideology: Same as Al-Qaeda 
7. Threat to the US – very high, mainly through Khorasan.

KHORASAN

1. Base: Syria – an independent group within Jabhat el-Nusra 
2. Religion: Sunni Islamism/Jihadism 
3. Affiliation: Al-Qaeda 
4. Strength: 60-85, mainly US, Canadian, Asian and EU citizens 
5. Growing? YES! 
6. Ideology: Execute numerous “spectacular” terrorist attacks in the US and Europe that exceed 9/11 in scope, casualties and media coverage. 
7. Threat to the US: Extremely high and immediate.

So among the Islamist terror groups we hear about in the news recently, there is no doubt that Khorasan, though smallest, poses the biggest and most urgent threat to the US homeland and citizens.

The positive side is that with good electronic (signal) and human intelligence (including on-the-ground “specialists” in Syria), and a decision to use whatever force is needed to prevent another 9/11 – the moment the opportunity arises (which unfortunately but necessarily will include targeting American citizens), there is more than a good possibility that this planned series of Al-Qaeda attacks can be stopped…at least for now.

So up till now the 86% in the Rasmussen poll were right.

But the 12% that did not consider Islamic terrorism, as defined above as a threat, were also right.

Just look at the series of “Lone Wolf” attacks that took place in the past few weeks. Not all of them were inspired by Islam and certainly not all followers if Islam are extremists or Jihadists. Most of them are typical Americans, bringing up families, who are loyal to this country and the US Constitution.

But then – so probably are the “Lone Wolf” terrorists. Those not affiliated to any organization, religion or group. They are individuals with “issues” who snapped and had access to a weapon. I believe that right now (and this could change), perhaps with the exception of a few dozen members of Khorasan in Syria, it’s the “Lone Wolf” terrorist that is the biggest threat to the United States.