Mideast Snapshot February - 2014

 “What’s going on over there?” is a question I’m asked daily – at work, at lunch meetings, at my grandkids’ games…even at the doctor’s office.

      The question is serious, and comes from a real concern. Everyone has ‘skin’ in the rapidly changing, often confusing and highly volatile developments in that region. We all know that one way or another, what happens in the Middle East will have a direct impact on us, our families and our future.
   So starting this week, from time to time this column will answer the question, and give a snapshot of the current status of various Mideast issues.
   Iran: The Geneva “agreement” of last November between Iran and the P5+1 powers morphed into the “JPA” (Joint Plan of Action) that was supposed to make sure that during a six month period of negotiating an end to its nuclear weapons program, Iran would halt all enrichment and weapon development activities in exchange for a “slight” easing of the US imposed economic sanctions. As of this week the sanctions are effectively gone and Iran’s economy is recovering, while the UN inspectors confirm that Iran is still enriching and stockpiling Uranium and is still constructing a heavy water reactor capable of producing weapons grade plutonium. The inspectors have not, as of this writing, been allowed into Iran’s secret nuclear weapon research and testing facility, even though this was agreed on in the JPA.
   Final agreement talks are scheduled to start on February 18 in Vienna. Iranian officials announced last week that they have no intention of giving up their nuclear program. Foreign minister Zarif said that the U.S. wanted Iran to give up major parts of its nuclear program but such demands won’t be carried out. “America has wishes and those wishes are unlikely to come true” he said.
   And to prove some point, president Rouhani is sending their whole “Northern Fleet” (one destroyer and one supply ship) “towards the US Atlantic coast”. Remember Peter Seller’s hilarious 1959 movie “The Mouse That Roared”?
   Egypt: Despite being outlawed, arrested and with its top leadership on trial in Cairo, the Muslim Brotherhood has gone underground and is regrouping. According to Egyptian officials, the MB is building a formidable military force with the help of seasoned jihadists from Libya, Iraq Afghanistan and Syria, and are currently attacking Egyptian security forces in the South and Sinai. 
   The Egyptian military has declared all-out war against the MB, but will probably keep it low until after the upcoming presidential election, expected within the next 60 days. At the moment all bets are on Field Marshall Abdel Fatah al-Assisi winning the election. This is good for Egypt, good for Israel, good for Middle East stability and good for the US. 
   Syria: The UN peace talks between the conflicting Sunni rebel groups and the Assad regime have failed. As intense fighting continues, the civilian casualty toll rises by hundreds a week – on both sides. The Syrian government is committing extreme atrocities including ethnic cleansing, destruction of whole villages, the kidnapping, torture and murder of children and the use of “barrel bombs” filled with nails shrapnel and ball bearings that are dropped with devastating effect on residential areas.
   The Sunni rebel forces are fighting on two fronts: against the regime and between themselves. All sides are getting supplies and reinforcements from outside of Syria – including radicalized US citizens who are fighting with the Jihadists, gaining combat and terrorism experience…
   Turkey: Under growing regional isolation, a declining economy, expanding civil unrest, and broad accusations of corruption at the highest levels, the Islamist government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan has decided to accept Israel’s explanation for the 2010 Mavi Marmara flotilla raid, take the compensation offered and renew full relations with Israel. With a nuclear Iran looming, and under pressure from the Turkish military, this is a logical and step for both countries.
    Israel: Even if Secretary of State John Kerry succeeds in presenting an acceptable framework for continuing peace talks with the Palestinians – three towering and unbridgeable obstacles prevent a final deal from being reached anytime in the near future:

1. The Muslim world’s carved-in stone, religion based absolute refusal to recognize Israel as the national homeland of the Jewish people 
2. The Palestinian’s insistence of keeping their “right of return” national narrative.
3. Israel’s ironclad pledge to never subcontract its security to a foreign military force.  

 So the answer to: “What’s going on over there” is…A lot. And it’s complicated, evolving and will probably change by the next snapshot. 
    Agree or disagree, that’s my opinion.