Jumping out of a C130 Hercules troop carrier 1,200 feet above the sand dunes of Palmachim, just South of Tel-Aviv, is a unique experience. Near the target landing area, the red “get ready” light goes on and the side doors are opened. The first thing you experience is a rush of hot air and the deafening noise of the powerful turbo-prop engines.
And suddenly, as you seem to be just hanging there, you hear…absolutely nothing. Not a sound. The plane is already miles away. You’re platoon is scattered in two lines of olive green parachutes hundreds of feet behind you.
After checking that your chute is fully open you look down to find the landing spot. At first it seems that you are not moving at all. But within moments the ground seems to be coming up towards you. At first very slowly, then faster and faster, until in the last few seconds it’s rushing at you so fast that you barely have time to brace for the impact.
I remembered this while learning about John Kerry’s new threat tactic.
Six months ago he was led to believe that after 65 years of failed attempts, he could establish a two-state resolution to the Israel-Palestinian conflict by the end of 2014. One of the key benchmarks, directly connected to the next Israeli prisoner release, is next month, when an agreed “framework” for final negotiations must be in place.
With every trial balloon of possible “framework” issues having been rejected, so far, by both the Palestinians and the Israelis, and the March deadline rapidly approaching, we can guess what the Secretary of State is feeling: that the deadline seems to be approaching at ever accelerating speed. The ground is rushing towards him.
Otherwise it’s hard to understand the series of unveiled threats to both Israel and the Palestinian leadership made by Kerry in recent days.
According to reliable Palestinian sources, a frustrated Kerry recently threatened Palestinian president Abu Mazen that he would meet the same fate as his predecessor, Yasser Arafat, if he turned down Washington’s proposals for peace with Israel. Abu Mazen reportedly stormed out of the room. The Palestinians pounced on this statement as “confirmation” that Arafat was “murdered by Israel”.
In December Kerry implied that if a peace deal was not implemented then Israel would face a third bloody Intifada. At a security conference in In Munich last Saturday, Kerry said that the “Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not sustainable. It is illusionary. For Israel there is an increasing de-legitimization campaign that has been building up. People are very sensitive to it; there is talk of boycott and other kinds of things. Are we all going to be better with all of that?"
That statement was celebrated in Europe and the Arab world as a US endorsement of the growing BDS (Boycott, Diverse and Sanction) movement, and in Israel as a direct US threat to its legitimacy and economy.
In Middle East tradition, negotiations, even over small deals, frequently take a long time – measured in years and decades rather than weeks or months. Rigid timetables, deadlines and benchmarks rarely work (example: Assad’s failure to turn over Syria’s chemical weapons on time), neither do threats...at least not to Israel.
The Israelis and Palestinians have known since the UN partition vote on November 29, 1947 that the eventual end result will be two states for two people. They also know that the negotiations may continue, with different leaders and various interim agreements and accommodations, another 67 years or longer.
Both sides are rejecting, each in their own way, the threats and pressures of a super-power that is actively and rapidly disengaging from the Middle East.
The perception of the “ground rushing up” is real…but different for each party. For Israel – it’s the immediate probability of Iran having nuclear weapons and the region’s growing instability. For the Palestinians – it’s the potential loss of their perpetual and highly lucrative refugee status. For John Kerry and the White House, according to most US and Middle East analysts – it’s the upcoming 2014 and 2016 elections.
Kerry made three jumps from three planes – Peace talks, Iran nukes and Syrian chemical weapons. Each time his parachuting technique was by-the-book. But each time the green light went on and he took that giant step into the backdraft, Kerry’s pilot had been way off course and off timing. Each of the three meticulously planned drop zones was missed by miles. The missions, so far, are failing.
Just because the ground is rushing towards you doesn’t mean you’re at the right place – or that threats and/or bribes will get you where you want to be.
Agree or disagree, that’s my opinion.
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