The Oracles of Davos

   Every era has its seers – inspired individuals (or charlatans) who can explain the present and predict the future.  Three thousand years ago in Assyria and Mesopotamia it was the “frenzied women” or “Mari”.  In ancient Egypt it was the goddess Wadget. The Greeks had Pythia, the oracle at Delphi, and in biblical times there were prophets. 

   Today we have the statements of participants at the annual World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland.
   From the WEF website: “The World Economic Forum is an independent international organization committed to improving the state of the world by engaging business, political, academic and other leaders of society to shape global, regional and industry agendas…the Forum is tied to no political, partisan or national interests.”
    Traditionally the Davos Forum is attended by world leaders or their representatives, diplomats, educators and many business executives – both active and retired.
    Though usually mostly technical and pretty boring, the Davos Forum always provides insight into the current state of the world in general, and the Middle East in particular (we remember how, a few years ago, Israeli president Shimon Peres stormed off the stage in the middle of a debate with Turkish prime minister Recep Erdogan after the latter accused him of being a “murderer”).
   With Shimon Peres, Benjamin Netanyahu, John Kerry and Iranian president Hassan Rouhani all attending and speaking from the podium - this year’s crop of on-the-record quotes gave us an abundance of clarity as to where the current Middle East initiatives really are…and where they are heading.
   Here is what these modern-day oracles said – and what it means.
John Kerry about the peace talks:

• “The Palestinians need to know that at the end of the day, their territory is going to be free of Israeli troops…”
• There should be “a full, phased, final withdrawal of the Israeli army,”
• Mutual recognition of the nation-state of the Palestinian people and the nation-state of the Jewish people. 

Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas (not at Davos)

• “Palestine can never recognize Israel as a Jewish state.”
• “In a final resolution, we would not see the presence of a single Israeli — civilian or soldier — on our lands”
• “No Israeli settlers or border forces could remain in a future Palestinian state.”
• “Palestinians deem illegal all Jewish settlements within the land occupied in the 1967 Six Days War.”

Benjamin Netanyahu:

• “I have said it before and I repeat it today: I'm not going to evict a single community, I am not going to uproot any Israeli from his home.”
• “Any peace agreement with the Palestinians must include a long-term Israeli presence along the Jordan River”.
• “That presence would protect Israel from the importation of terrorists from Jordan into a Palestinians state”.

Iran president Hasan Rouhani:

• “I strongly and clearly state that nuclear weapons have no place in our security strategy, and Iran has no motivation to move in that direction.”

Netanyahu:

• "Rouhani is continuing with the Iranian show of deception.
• At a time when Rouhani claims that Iran is not interested in a nuclear project for military purposes, Iran continues to strengthen its centrifuges and heavy water reactor, and to arm itself with intercontinental missiles, the sole purpose of which is for nuclear weapons.
• Rouhani has admitted that a decade ago, he deceived the West in order to advance the Iranian nuclear program. He is doing this today as well.
• The goal of the Iranian ayatollahs' regime, which is hiding behind Rouhani's smiles, is to ease sanctions without conceding on their program to produce nuclear weapons.
• The international community must not go astray after this deception, and it must prevent Iran from attaining the ability to produce nuclear weapons."

   One does not have to be a genius to interpret the insights of the Oracles of Davos.  It looks like 2014 will be a year of Iran becoming a nuclear power (unless they are stopped militarily), and no final peace deal between Israel and the Palestinians (unless the Palestinians get better leadership).
    I find it strange, though, that the oracles are silent on foreseeing, in these dangerous times, the appearance of a new, “responsible adult” super power to rule the region and maintain security and stability. Historically one always arrives when there is a leadership vacuum. Maybe next year at Davos…
   Agree or disagree, that’s my opinion.