As a young boy growing up in New York in the 1950’s, I remember looking forward to the annual family ritual of going to Madison Square Garden to see the Ringling Brothers and Barnum & Bailey Circus. It was a three ring spectacle with five rings. At the age of eight, I was constantly shifting my gaze so as not to miss anything. It seemed like well-choreographed chaos…with clowns appearing from time to time to screw things up.
At the start of 2014, the Middle East reminds me of the circus. Wherever one looks there are major, ongoing events taking place simultaneously. While seemingly unconnected, they are all happening inside one large “tent”, and therefor will eventually have an impact, to a lesser or greater degree, on everyone inside. Here are just some of the events we will be following in the weeks and months ahead:
- The end of an era. With the notable exception of still very active Israeli president Shimon Peres, the imminent passing of Ariel (Arik) Sharon marks the end of the era of modern Israel’s founding generation. Soldier, politician and farmer, Arik Sharon was active at every major crossroad of Israel’s history. Frequently controversial, both revered and criticized, he has been instrumental, at many levels, in making Israel what it is today. I’ll cover his life in more detail in a future column.
- The Israeli-Palestinian Peace Talks. By all available accounts as of this writing, Secretary of State John Kerry’s recent series of meetings in the region did not advance the current round of talks. Key points of his proposed framework were rejected outright by both the Palestinians and the Israelis. In the meantime while the Israelis are continuing their promised release of prisoners, the Palestinians have hardened their positions, continue vicious public incitement against Israel, show hateful anti-Israel programs on educational TV stations and are allowing preparations for terrorist attacks. With Hamas and Fatah renewing reconciliation talks this week, no one believes that the nine-month timetable for reaching an agreement is realistic.
- Civil War in Syria: Though “Peace Talks” are schedule to begin this month in Geneva, Assad, with massive support from Iran and Hezbollah and the diplomatic backing of Russia and China, has no incentive to cut a compromise deal at this moment. The rebel Sunni forces are divided and fighting each other with no recognizable central command or credible political leadership. Also – Israeli Experts say that the over 20,000 international Jihadists now fighting in Syria against Assad, are already marking Israel as their next target.
- Iran Nukes: Talks with P5+1 are scheduled to resume next week. As of this writing the “6 month hiatus” has still not yet started. Iranian high government officials brag that the Uranium enrichment is continuing at an accelerated pace, as is the completion of the Heavy Water reactor at Arak.
- Egypt: As the new Constitution comes into effect, presidential elections are already in preparation. It is all but confirmed that the highly popular strongman General Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi will run for the presidency – and in all probability win.
- Iraq: With violence now a daily occurrence, and in the noticeable absence of a peacekeeping or moderating power, the renewed Sunni-Shiite-Kurdish civil war is about to break out with brutal force. Can anyone say (with apologies to Yogi Berra): “Syrian déjà vu all over again”?
Just like at the circus, in the Middle East wherever you look there is action, danger, comedy, edge-of-your-seat nail-biting suspense…and, of course – clowns. Unfortunately, at the moment this circus doesn’t seem to have a ringmaster. And this is just the first week of 2014! Hold on to your seats and cotton candy – it’s going to be an interesting year...
Agree or disagree, that’s my opinion.
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