Last week we celebrated the new Jewish year, 5774. In Israel it was almost surrealistic. Faced with the distinct specter of yet another war of “annihilation-by-missiles”, this time promised by Iran and Syria in retaliation to an expected US attack, the Israelis called up a few reserve units, beefed up anti-missile defenses in the North and then did what they do best on “Rosh Hashana” – New Year’s day – they thronged, en masse, to the beaches and parks, set up tables and chairs and broke out the grills. By noon highways were jammed, beaches were packed, parks were crowded (including in the Upper Galilee and the Golan Heights) and the smell of grilled lamb chops, steaks, hamburgers and hot dogs drifted over the country.
I’m sure that the warring factions in Syria paused to get a whiff, wishing at that moment that they too were picnicking in the cool Tal Forest Park, where the only smoke was from the “Mangal” (grill) and the only concern was if there is enough Hummus and Pitas, not when and where the US attack will come.
As of this writing the administration is trying to get Congress to support a limited US attack on Syria. Limited in scope – yet painful enough to send a clear message to Assad not to dare use chemical weapons again. The question right now is if Congress will go along.
Also, President Obama is currently in Russia at the G-20 meeting, trying to get other countries to join, or at least support the US position on Syria. Britain is out and France is wavering. Italy sent a frigate to the Eastern Mediterranean, but most countries, at this stage, prefer to take a wait and see position. Russia and Iran support Assad, both diplomatically and militarily.
Both the US and Russia have significantly increased their naval forces in the area, and more missile, assault, electronic warfare and support ships are on their way.
But is this really about the Sarin gas attack last week that killed over 1,400 civilians or is there a bigger picture involved? In my opinion, based on current activity in Israel and the disproportionate deployment of US and Russian assets, it’s the latter.
Here’s a possible scenario: American missiles are launched against targets in Syria. True to their word, the Iranians order their forces in Lebanon to fire missiles at Israel and attack American ships and interests in the Mediterranean and the Persian Gulf.
Israel reacts with massive force to destroy Iran’s and Hezbollah’s missile capabilities and military infrastructures in Lebanon. The US, having been attacked by Iran or its proxies, does not now need Congressional approval to retaliate…and at the same time, since “new intelligence” will show that Iran has crossed not only Israel’s but America’s nuclear “red line”, destroy Iran’s nuclear program sites…which many analysts believe is what this is really all about.
Why would the Iranians launch such a suicidal attack on Israel and the US, knowing exactly what the results would be? For the same reason President Obama now feels compelled to attack Syria – because they said they would. And in the Middle East a word is a word, a promise is a promise, and honor is sacred.
I may be wrong, or things may not go as expected. But if they do then the year 5774 May turn out to be the beginning of a whole new, hopefully peaceful, era for Israel, The US, and the Middle East.
Agree or disagree – that’s my opinion.
G’mar Chatima Tova.
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