Syria, Egypt, and the UN General Assembly

While we celebrated the holidays, the Middle East continued to generate news and speculation. 
Syria:
According to the Russian “deal” Assad had until Sept 21 to provide the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) a full disclosure of all his chemical weapons, as well as all research and production facilities. As of the deadline the Syrians have delivered only a partial list. The OPCW is busy translating the report while still waiting for the rest.
2. The US and Russia have not yet agreed on the wording of the UN Security Council (UNSC) resolution, due to be voted on next week. The US insists on a binding non-compliance consequence clause, Russia disagrees. Russia wants the military threat completely removed, the US disagrees.
3. There are difficulties in recruiting the international inspectors. So far only Germany has agreed to send a handful.
4. Vladimir Putin said last week that he “could not be sure” that Bashar al-Assad would fulfill the requirement to identify and destroy his chemical weapons stocks. 
5. In the meantime, the Syrian civil war has evolved into a three way conflict. Last week saw intense fighting within the rebel forces – mainly between jihadist al-Qaeda affiliates and the supposedly pro-west Free Syrian Army (FSA). 
6. In the past few weeks several large units of the FSA have switched sides and joined the jihadists. 
Egypt:
1. Defense minister General Assisi continues with an all-out campaign to weaken and destabilize the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), whose leadership, together with thousands of its members and supporters are in jail awaiting trial. Street demonstrations have all but ceased following the military’s harsh policy for dealing with any unrest.
2. In the meantime a new, secular Constitution is almost complete, and is expected to be put to a national referendum within 4-6 weeks, followed by general elections.
3. The military campaign in Sinai against the jihadist fighters is gaining momentum. Both sides are keeping up the pressure, while suffering heavy casualties. Egyptian helicopter gunships and artillery pound jihadist forces daily, while the latter use car bombs with devastating effect against the military.
4. The army has now closed all tunnels between Gaza and Egypt, preventing jihadist reinforcements, weapons and money from getting through.
5. At Egypt’s request, Israel has extended the hours at the crossing points into Gaza, and is allowing construction material through for private projects.
New York 
   The UN General Assembly opens this week in New York.  Without Ahmadinejad, it will be interesting to see who, among the participating kings, princes, presidents, prime ministers, etc. will be this year’s clown. Whose speech will inspire the delegates? Who will be totally forgettable…or worse?
  Regarding the Middle East this year, tantalizing “promos” and “teasers” have simultaneously raised high expectations and deep concerns, not to mention some serious questions:

1. Will the scheduled September 30 meeting between President Obama and Prime Minister Netanyahu in DC be warm, cordial or chilly? What will they really discuss?
2. Will there be an Obama-Netanyahu-Abbas summit…or is Abbas planning another bid for UN recognition of “Palestine”?
3. Will there be a linkage between a UNSC resolution on Syria’s chemical weapons and Israel’s rumored nuclear arsenal?
4. Will President Obama meet with Iranian President Rowhani of Iran? And which Rowhani will show up at the UN – the aggressive long-time Iranian nuke champion, or the disarmingly likable “let’s-lie-through-our-teeth-until-we-have-the-bomb” negotiator? 

   As we know from past UN General Assemblies, the real news is generated during behind closed doors meetings in NY and DC, as well as with ongoing developments in the region.

   Agree or disagree, that’s my opinion.