Syria and the "Russian Deal"

   Last week President Obama addressed the nation on Syria. He gave a compelling argument for an American missile strike in response to the Sarin gas killing of over 1,400 civilians in Damascus, leaving no doubt that the Assad regime had committed this atrocity. He was convincing as to why Congress should vote to support the attack. But then the president said that he had asked Congress to delay voting because “…the Russian government has indicated a willingness to join with the international community in pushing Assad to give up his chemical weapons.” 

   Russian president Vladimir Putin had come up with a “deal”. Secretary of State John Kerry and his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, agreed on the framework of the deal.
   
   With the threat of a US missile attack hanging over, Putin apparently convinced Assad to give up a massive arsenal of over 1,000 metric tons (about 2.3 million lbs.) of weapon-grade chemical agents, together with some 30,000 warheads, at various stages of operational readiness, and numerous delivery systems. All had been accumulated over thirty years, and earmarked to deter Israel’s perceived nuclear capability in a future war.
   
   The agreed outline of the “deal” is:
1. By Sept 21 Assad must provide a full disclosure of all his chemical weapons (CW) including names, types, quantities, warheads and locations, as well as all research and production facilities.
2. In November, inspectors from the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (UNSC), arrive for preliminary confirmation of the report. Assad must provide them immediate and unrestricted access to every location, at any time.
3. By June 2014 all CW, precursors, warheads and related equipment must be destroyed or removed from Syria.
  
    But as always – the devil is in the details. Here are just some of the problems:

• Assad recently moved much of his CW to over 40 sites around the country, including residential areas, locations of ongoing fighting and the formidable Southeastern mountain and desert region.
• He has also reportedly moved CW to Lebanon and Iraq.
• The inventory provided this week will also be suspicious as analysts believe that Syria’s elite 4th Division, commanded by Assad’s brother Maher, has had plenty of time to squirrel away CW and equipment for future use. These troops are highly trained in CW and have used them at least 13 times in the past two years, including in last month’s attack in Damascus. 
• The international inspectors will be under constant danger from both rebel and regime forces as they visit the numerous sites, especially in the combat zones.
• Once sites have been inspected and confirmed they will have to be monitored and secured by an international force of about 75,000 to prevent the CW from falling in the hands of the rebels, regime forces or unscrupulous Bedouin smugglers. However both the US and Russia have declared “no boots on the ground” policies.
• Destruction of CW is very complex, dangerous and time consuming. The eight month time frame is unrealistic.

   In my opinion, even with thousands (from where?) of foreign or contract security personnel on the ground, this “deal” will take years to reach completion, if at all. There are too many political, diplomatic and technical obstacles along the way, including (despite the smiles in Geneva), the cooling US-Russia relations. 

   So regardless of guarded optimism here and in Israel, it is way premature to determine if the “deal” has a chance of success or, as we say in Texas “that dog won’t hunt”. Let’s see how the next few weeks play out.    
   
   Agree or disagree – that’s my opinion.