The goal of the international economic sanctions on Iran was to pressure the regime to give up its obsession with developing and producing nuclear weapons.
As I predicted in last week’s column, this “interim deal” neither addresses Israel’s (and the Saudis’) concerns, nor does anything to prevent a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. It does not dismantle even one of the over 18,000 centrifuges currently installed and operational in Iran’s nuclear facilities, it does not reduce by even one gram the stockpile of some 7 tons of low enriched uranium (3.5-5%) which can be converted within weeks to bomb grade fissile material and it allows Iran to continue unlimited enriching (after 6 months) to that level. As for “enhanced intrusive monitoring” – the only thing “enhanced” that we’ll see over the next six months is the Iranian version of “whack-a-mole”.
In the “deal” signed on Saturday, Iran agrees to slow construction of the Arak heavy water, plutonium producing nuclear reactor for 6 months (while continuing maintenance on both the nearly completed reactor and the nearby heavy water production facility) and to convert some of its 200 Kg. of 20% enriched uranium to fuel rods.
In other words, in exchange for significant and immediate sanction relief, Iran essentially maintains its full six week nuclear break-out capability, while resuming trade and commerce with the world. Does anyone really believe that, aside from Canada, any country would have the appetite to renew sanctions in 6 months – if the permanent deal isn’t reached?
A serious flaw in the Geneva deal is that it does not include an immediate Iranian commitment to uncover the development and construction of the explosive devices and warheads being worked on at secret, well hidden facilities.
So who are the winners and losers in this “interim deal” signed in Geneva? (note that some appear in both columns)
Winners:
• Iran – Enhanced Status – Gave nothing, got everything:
- Some sanctions relief and no new ones.
- No degradation of nuclear weapons breakout capabilities
- Keeps full enriched uranium stockpile
- Can continue enrichment after 6 months
- Arak reactor untouched.
- No supervision of weaponization facilities
- No mention of delivery system (Missile) production and stockpiling
• USA:
- Administration hailed as instrumental in reaching the diplomatic deal.
- Military option off the table
- Economic benefits
• P5+1:
- Economic benefits
- Lessens chance of war
- Lessens chance of Iranian sponsored terrorism in Europe
• Israel: - New alliances with Gulf States, especially Saudi Arabia
Losers:
• Israel:
- Major damage to relations with the US administration
- Military action harder (though not impossible)
- Risks worldwide condemnation if it takes military action
• USA:
- Loss of influence and status in Sunni Arab countries
- Loss of trade with Saudi Arabia
- Probable loss of military assets in the Gulf States
The biggest loser however, is the security of the Middle East and the world. With this capitulation of the West to Iran’s “charm offensive”, and the ill-advised signing of this unfortunate “deal”, the Pandora’s Box of a Middle East’s nuclear arms race has been opened. It looks like only Israel and her new allies may have a small window of opportunity to close it.
Agree or disagree, that’s my opinion.
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