The Geneva Talks and new Jerusalem-Washington friction

   This was not the first time Iranian delegates met with representatives of the P5+1 (USA, Russia, France, Great Britain, China and Germany) to negotiate a deal that would end the threat of a nuclear armed Iran. But this time was different:

1. All the participants were high level officials: Foreign Ministers or Secretary of State.
2. The talks were held after heavy, ongoing sanctions have crippled Iran’s economy.
3. Recent reports confirm that Iran is already at, or very near “break-out” stage in its nuclear weapons program, and therefor close to both the US and Israeli “red lines” for military action.
4. Iran is rushing to complete a heavy-water nuclear reactor, capable of producing weapons-grade Plutonium.

   But while eliminating the Iranian nuclear threat is a top priority of Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the Gulf states, this is not the case with the rest of the world. Most industrial countries, including the US, are eager to see the sanctions lifted so that they can resume profitable commercial ties with the Islamic republic.
   And the Iranians are playing directly to that gallery with promises, “as soon as the sanctions are lifted”, of lucrative energy, construction and trade contracts, of opening Iranian oil fields to foreign exploration and extraction, and of a population of 17 million mostly middle class consumers. No wonder powerful multi-national corporations are pressuring world leaders to come to an agreement that will lift the sanctions – even if it means that Iran has a few nukes.
   “What’s the big deal?” they ask cynically, “If worse comes to worse Israel has great ‘second strike’ capabilities. On the other hand, in the current world financial downturn, opening this huge and eager market will raise the economic strength and prosperity of our countries!” It’s hard to argue against that.
   Fortunately one country, France, refused to go along with the proposed deal that would have let Iran not only keep the low-enriched Uranium they already have stockpiled, but continue enrichment for 6 months and complete the heavy-water reactor (which once activated cannot be destroyed with explosives or bombs).
  The Geneva talks ended with no agreement, and are scheduled to resume on November 20. In the meantime the centrifuges will continue to spin as Iran races towards its nuclear objective.
   Who won this round? The Iranians came to Geneva with two goals:

1. To buy time to continue Uranium enrichment as well as completion of their heavy-water, Plutonium reactor.
2. To open a crack in the punishing sanction regime, hoping to render it ineffective.

 They achieved the first, at least until November 20. They failed the second (though there are reports that the US has granted sanction wavers over the past few months…).
   The P5+1 came with only one goal: To get Iran to agree to an immediate 6 month halt of enrichment, in exchange for a partial release of Iranian oil funds frozen in European banks. Score…1:0 Iran.
   In the meantime, there is a new and ominous growing rift between the US and Israel. Last Friday, on his way to Geneva, John Kerry stopped briefly in Israel, met Netanyahu at the airport, and showed him a document that he said was the P5+1 proposal that would be presented to the Iranian Foreign Minister. 
   Netanyahu warned the Secretary of State that he was offering Iran "the deal of the century." "This is a very bad deal. Israel utterly rejects it," Netanyahu said, vowing that Israel would not be bound by any agreement. Netanyahu reminded Kerry of his own words that “no deal is better than a bad one”. 
   Netanyahu found out on Saturday that the actual proposal presented to the Iranians in Geneva was much more lenient than the one Kerry showed him. Bibi, according to several reports, went ballistic, saying again that Israel is not obligated to this agreement and will take any measures needed to defend itself. 
   According to Ynet, a source close to the prime minister said: "Some three days ago we received an update – both from the Americans and from other sources – about an overall deal with Iran. Israel was against it. Then, over the weekend, we learnt that the deal is even worse than we had been told, simply a massive mistake, and we lost it. Kerry left with a lot of food for thought after a very difficult conversation with Bibi.”
   Attila Somfalvi reported on Sunday in Ynet: “The tension between Israel and the US signals a tough road ahead for the twin American goals of finding a diplomatic solution for Iran's nuclear program and forging peace between Israel and the Palestinians. It also raises the specter of a return to the uncomfortable relationship that has often characterized dealings between Obama and Netanyahu.”
   However with or without US blessings, I believe that Israel will do whatever it takes to stop Iran from having a nuclear weapon…and I know that Israel is fully capable of it. 
   Agree or disagree, that’s my opinion.