Error correction: The current estimated population of Iran is close to 80 million (CIA World Fact Book) and not as stated in last week’s column. Thanks to all those who wrote to bring my attention to the typo.
Now back to the present. As of this writing, all indications point to the possibility that by the time you read this column, the P5+1 (US, Russia, China, France, Great Britain and Germany) will have signed a preliminary agreement with Iran regarding its nuclear weapons program.
If my information is accurate then it is a terrible deal. As you will see below, the formidable and effective sanctions architecture will be breached, while Iran’s ability to enrich Uranium and build nuclear weapons will not be degraded in any significant way.
As reported in this column last month, both the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and former UN nuclear Inspector David Albright, founder and President of the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) in D.C., said that with the new, next-generation centrifuges already installed in military enrichment facilities, Iran can now produce sufficient highly enriched, weapons-grade uranium for 3-5 Hiroshima size nuclear devices…every 8 weeks.
And it can do that from its already huge stockpile of over 7 metric tons of 5% enriched Uranium.
That’s why Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu strongly asked President Obama and the other leaders of the P5+1 not to agree to any deal with the Iranians that didn’t include removing all enriched Uranium from Iran, preventing Iran from enrichment to any level by removing or dismantling all centrifuges and conversion facilities, and halting construction on a new Heavy Water reactor that will produce bomb-grade Plutonium.
While none of these measures will stop a determined Iran from eventually acquiring nukes in the future, at least they would put their program back 10-15 years, and hopefully prevent a nuclear arms race in a very unstable region.
According to intelligence sources, Saudi Arabia has already purchased 2-4 nuclear warheads from Pakistan and will take delivery the minute Iran builds its first bomb. Turkey, Egypt and several Gulf States, all Sunni and feeling threatened by a nuclear Shiite Iran, will quickly follow suit, with financing from the Saudis.
So any deal with Iran that in any way allows the Islamic Republic to keep its centrifuges (even if temporarily shut down), keep its 7 ton stockpile of 5% enriched Uranium 235, keep its 200kgs of 20% enriched Uranium (only 50kgs less than needed for a bomb!) and finish its Plutonium producing reactor in Arak, is a terrible deal.
According to several reliable reports, the proposed “Interim Deal”, worked out mainly between the US and Iran over the past 10 days is that in exchange for releasing funds frozen in European banks and “selective” easing of sanctions, Iran agrees to:
- Freeze construction of the Heavy Water reactor (according to some versions dismantle or mothball it).
- Temporarily suspend enrichment operations at Natanz and Fordow for 6 months.
- Convert part of its 20% enriched Uranium to reduce the inventory to below 125kgs.
- Continue negotiating with the P5+1 for 6 months (!) over a “final resolution”.
Since, according to these reports, during the interim 6 months Iran keeps its 7 ton inventory of 5% enriched Uranium, keeps the centrifuges capable of converting that inventory into bomb-grade fissile material within weeks, keeps its weaponization and weapons production facilities intact and can either extend or simply walk away from the talks at any time – this is a terrible interim deal.
Since any breach in the architecture of the current sanctions on Iran will open the floodgates and effectively render the sanctions toothless – this is a terrible interim deal.
Since it virtually guarantees no American military action for at least 6 months (an eternity in the Middle East), and makes an Israeli strike much more difficult (though not impossible) – this is a terrible interim deal.
Israel says it’s terrible and t The Arab countries say it’s terrible. When Israel and the Arab countries are fully coordinated on something this important – it would behoove world leaders to pay attention.
Agree or disagree, that’s my opinion.
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