Thursday, April 3, 2014

A tale of two visits

With so much happening in the past week – two important Middle East stories received scant, if any, coverage in the media.
   President Obama in Saudi Arabia: Last Friday Air Force One landed in the Saudi capital. President Obama, John Kerry and the US entourage were then flown by Marine One to meet King Abdullah and several of the senior Saudi princes at the king’s luxurious ranch in Rawdat Khuraim, about 40 miles northeast of Riyadh. 
   While there was no press conference after the short visit, the official Saudi line was that they discussed “tactical differences” regarding Middle East issues, including Iran, Syria and the Peace Process. A US spokesman said that Obama assured Abdullah that the US “won’t accept a bad deal” regarding Iranian nukes.
   But an editorial in the semi-official al-Riyadh newspaper on Friday said Obama does not know Iran as well as the Saudis do, and could not "convince us that Iran will be peaceful". "Our security comes first and no one can argue with us about it," it concluded.
   Was this really about reassuring the Saudis? I don’t think so.  In all the pictures of the meetings there was one prince rarely seen until now, yet this time he stood or sat just a few feet away from the president and the king. His name is Prince Muqrin Bin Abdul-Aziz, he’s 69, and is this youngest surviving son of the Kingdom’s founder: Abdul-Aziz ibn Saud. Last week Muqrin was effectively designated to be the next king, receiving the title of Deputy Crown Prince. 
   King Abdullah, who is over 90 and was hooked up to oxygen during part of his talk with Obama, issued a Royal edict that “should the position of King or Crown Prince become vacated”, Muqrin was to be elevated to either. Since the current Crown Prince, Salman, 78, is suffering from dementia; Muqrin will be the next king of Saudi Arabia. Following the edict all the members of the Royal family vowed loyalty to the new king-in-waiting.
   And that is what the visit was mostly about – introducing Muqrin to Obama and the White House advisors. And possibly even more important – getting the Americans expert to evaluate Muqrin’s views, attitude, ideology, etc.
   In the conflict with Iran, Saudi Arabia is a key ally of the US and Israel. Following events in Syria and the so called Geneva agreement, the current leadership has lost trust in the US commitment to prevent its mortal enemy, Iran, from having nuclear weapons. With Muqrin becoming king, his position and alliances will be crucial, especially with Vladimir Putin knocking at the door...  
   General Dempsey in Israel: At the same time General Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff was in Israel on a working visit with Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon, IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz and senior IDF officers. Aside from smoothing ruffled feathers following recent criticism by Ya’alon of Secretary of State Kerry, reports talk about detailed operational planning, “target bank” updates and mission coordination.
   I would be surprised if the two visits were not connected. And I would be even more surprised if the Saudis – including Prince Muqrin’s advisors, were not in the loop.
  Agree or disagree, that’s my opinion.

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