Next Tuesday, April 29, the nine months allocated for the current attempt to solve the Israeli Palestinian conflict will expire. It started as an ambitious, well-intended US driven plan to negotiate a final peace treaty, which would once and for all end the century plus long ongoing dispute.
While both the Israelis and the Palestinians are interested, each for their own reasons, in extending the talks, both sides have laid down pre-conditions which, as of this writing, make that virtually impossible.
Israeli preconditions:
- Abbas withdraws all 14 applications of accession as “Palestine” to UN and International treaties and conventions (now pointless since they were accepted and confirmed last week, with lightning speed, by UN officials, including Secretary General Ban Ki Moon).
- Abbas recognizes Israel as the “Jewish” homeland.
- Abbas retracts the demand for Palestinian refugees’ (all 5 million worldwide) “right of return” into Israel proper.
- Abbas agrees to discuss an alternative to Jerusalem as the future capital of Palestine.
Palestinian preconditions:
- Israel recognizes “right of return” of 5 million refugees…to Israel
- Israel announces that East Jerusalem is the capital of Palestine
- Israel agrees, in advance, that borders will be the 1967 lines with minor adjustments
- Israel releases all agreed 4th tranche convicted terrorist prisoners plus (new list) Arab terrorists who have Israeli citizenship, plus two very high-profile terrorist leaders: Marwan Barghouti and Ahmed Saadat. This was never part of the original agreement with Kerry.
The last item is interesting and could possibly be the deal-maker to restart the talks. It’s complicated so bear with me:
- Abbas is in the 6th year of a 3 year term of office. There is no Palestinian legislature body.
- He is viewed by the street as corrupt and an Israeli/American lackey, with no “terrorist” credentials.
- He is facing strong opposition from powerful leaders within his own faction, led by Muhammad Dahlan.
- Prisoner release, especially of terrorists, is a top priority of the Palestinians.
- Getting prisoners released, especially Barghouti and Saadat, may buy him time to reinforce his position, or pack up and leave while he can. It may also let the USA keep up the pretense of ongoing “talks”.
- Netanyahu is under pressure by the extreme right wing of his coalition. Naftali Benet, leader of the settler friendly “Jewish Home” party is threatening to pull his 12 Knesset members from the government, thus toppling it, if Netanyahu, under US “persuasion”, bends to the Palestinian demands for prisoners.
So how can the US save face and keep the talks going without endangering Abbas and causing Netanyahu’s government to fall? Here’s one tortuous possibility:
- The US releases Jonathan Pollard in exchange for Barghouti, Saadat and a few Arab-Israeli terrorists (who immediately renounce their Israeli citizenship and are exiled with the rest).
- Abbas declares a voluntary freeze on “Palestine” activities re international treaties and conventions.
- Bibi agrees to “discuss” a limited, conditional and very long-term “right of return”
- The rest sort of falls into place or gets lost in the shuffle and the talks continue, and continue, and continue.
Obviously Benet’s party bolts. But Netanyahu, in anticipation, is reported to have cut a deal last week with Sheli Yechimovits of the Labor Party (15 seats) to join the coalition as long as Benet is out, and the “peace talks” go on. And for the record, she would not oppose a justified strike on Iran.
Is there a chance that such a convoluted plan will actually succeed by the April 29th deadline? With so many “moving parts” to precisely coordinate – I doubt it.
But this is the Middle East…and as we just retold during this holiday season – stranger things have happened over the past, say, 3,000 years.
Agree or disagree, that’s my opinion.
DISCLAIMER: Opinions expressed above the writer’s, and do not represent SWJC directors, officers or members
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