The Peace Process Needs a Miracle

In an interview on CBS in 1956, David Ben Gurion said: “In Israel, in order to be a realist you must believe in miracles”.  

   Now would be a good time for a miracle. Even the most optimistic Middle East observers are saying that at this point, ONLY a miracle can save the current Israeli-Palestinian peace process.  
  Last Thursday, there was a contentious meeting between Tzippi Livni, chief Israeli negotiator, Saeb Erikat, chief Palestinian negotiator and former ambassador Martyn Indyk, representing the US. It ended, according to reports, in a verbal shouting match. One observer described it as resembling combat more than a negotiation.
   US Secretary of State John Kerry, who has invested more than a year in intensive shuttle diplomacy, said that it was  "reality-check time” and he would evaluate with President Obama Washington's next move. "There are limits to the amount of time and effort that the United States can spend if the parties themselves are unwilling to take constructive steps."
    Kerry spoke to both Israeli and Palestinian leaders on Thursday night in a last minute bid to bring the two sides back from the brink of failure. How did we get there?
   Direct negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians began on July 29, 2013 after consultations with leaders in the region. Former US ambassador Martin Indyk was appointed to oversee the negotiations.
   The talks were scheduled to last nine months, with a goal of reaching a final status accords by April 29th. 
   Before the peace talks began, both sides agreed to the following good-will gestures and ground rules:

• The Palestinians will put on hold all forms of applying for international recognition as a state.
• Israel will release of 104 Palestinian prisoners, all of whom have been in jail since before the 1993 Oslo Accord, in four rounds. These convicted terrorists are responsible for killing 70 Israelis. Three rounds of prisoner releases were completed; the last release was planned for this past weekend.
• Both sides agreed to refrain from taking actions or making statements that could impede the negotiations.
• And that only the Americans will issue statements about the talks (that one lasted about 30 seconds!)

   During the past eight and a half months, there were very few actual meetings between the negotiators, and those were typically short, argumentative and produced unhelpful and uncompromising declarations. 
   In the meantime, John Kerry made frequent visits to the region and phone calls to the leaders, while dedicated US staffers met regularly with both teams to present versions of draft plans, ideas and compromises. According to reports, if one side liked a proposal, the other rejected it. The negotiations were going ahead at “full speed in neutral”.
   As the April 29th deadline drew nearer, there was growing opposition in Israel to fulfilling the final prisoner release. This was in view of the lack of progress and recent statements by Abu Mazen and other Palestinian leaders that the minute the talks “failed” they would apply to join UN affiliated and international organizations, treaties, conventions, etc. as “Palestine”. Once confirmed, especially to the 1998 Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court, they could, in theory and practice, charge Israel, namely current and former Israeli leaders and IDF officers, in International, UN affiliated and various sovereign countries’ courts with all kinds of crimes, getting sympathetic judges to issue international arrest warrants for Israeli politicians and IDF officers.
   Based on past experience, Israel is convinced that the Palestinians simply want to get the prisoners released so that they can “pocket” this Israeli concession without giving any in return. 
   Last Saturday Abu Mazen, in blatant violation of the peace talk’s ground rules, preemptively signed applications to join fourteen (!) international conventions and treaties, including the Rome Statute, even while negotiations over the final prisoner release were still going on. He also issued new demands just to “agree” to extend the talks.
  So barring an awesome miracle (OK, I’m a realist…), despite John Kerry’s herculean efforts, this current round of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process (the thirteenth since the 1949 Lausanne Conference) seems doomed to join its predecessors in the footnotes of history. 
  Agree or disagree, that’s my opinion.

DISCLAIMER: Opinions expressed above the writer’s, and do not represent SWJC directors, officers or members