Friday, June 3, 2016

Why I'm giving Lieberman the benefit of the doubt - for now

When the announcement came out last week that Lt. Gen. (res.) Moshe Ya'alon had resigned from his political positions as Israel's minister of defense, and member of Knesset from the Likud party, no-one was really surprised. His relations with Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu had been bumpy from the beginning. Ya'alon, a decorated combat officer who rose to the highest rank possible in the IDF and finished his career as its Commander in Chief, had a hard time taking orders from a career politician whose service in the IDF in an elite unit, was respectable, if unremarkable.

Bibi, on the other hand, didn't appreciate the perceived patronizing by his higher ranking, more experienced and sometimes a bit too outspoken, subordinate.
The final straw came last month over two comments  Ya'alon made. Bibi essentially gave him the option to resign or be fired. He "resigned". That was not surprising.

What raised eyebrows, rolled eyes and sent pundits everywhere (except in Israel) into hi-caffeinated hand-wringing angst, was the offer of the job to 
Corporal (res.) Avigdor Lieberman.
The Israelis knew that Bibi had no choice. I'll try to explain:

In the US, the executive and legislature branches at all levels: federal, state and local, draw their power and authority from the voting public directly. In Israel the executive branch (Primer Minister, ministers, etc.) is installed and empowered by the Knesset, both individually and collectively.

The Israeli system of government is a parliamentary democracy, based on "proportionate representation". Voters for the Knesset cast ballots for a party - not an individual candidate. The parties are competing for the 120 seats in the Knesset.

After an election, all valid votes are counted and the Knesset seats are allocated proportionately to the number of votes each party received. If party A received 30% of the votes - it will get 30% of the 120 seats = 36 seats or Members of Knesset (MK's). Once allocated, the new MK's are sworn in.
In order to form or maintain a government, a party must receive a vote of confidence from at least half of the sitting MK's+1 = 61. Anything less and the government will not be confirmed or will fall in a future "no confidence" vote.

Since no party in Israel's 68 years of history has ever received 61 seats in an election, every Prime Minister candidate has had to cobble together a coalition of several parties, and for the next few years try to keep everyone in their coalition happy...

After the last election Bibi formed a coalition with a razor thin majority of 61. Ya'alon's resignation of his Knesset seat left the coalition under the threat of losing a no-confidence vote at any time. Bibi had to act fast to stay in power:

First he tried (not too hard...!) to get the center-left "Zionist Union" party (24 MK's), led by Yitzchak ("Bujy") Hertzog, but that fell through.

Since the "Joint List" Arab party (13 MK's) is not really an option, Bibi turned to the party that has always been his ideological and political "plan B" (or maybe it was really "Plan A" all along...?), Avigdor Lieberman's right-wing nationalistic "Yisrael Beiteinu".With six MK's - it pretty much solidifies the government's continuation. 
Lieberman demanded and received the Ministry of Defense.

The new coalition agreement was ratified by the Knesset, and Lieberman was sworn in.

Understandably, not everyone in Israel is happy, but aside from those few perennial declarers who say (again) that they are "packing their bags", everyone understands that this is the cost of Israel's style of democracy.

As for Lieberman as Defense Minister, I'm taking a wait and see position. Though he may not have been my first choice to replace Ya'alon, he might just turn out to be the right person at the right time. I disagree with those that are arguing that the position should be held by someone from within the IDF.

Due to the importance of the defense portfolio, prime ministers have often held the DM position in addition to their prime ministerial duties... seven of the sixteen Defense Ministers to date were serving Prime Ministers: David Ben Gurion, Levi Eshkol, Menachem Begin, Yitzhak Rabin, Shimon Peres, Ehud Barak, Bibi (two days...).

Five of them (Moshe Dayan, Yitzhak Rabin, Ehud Barak, Shaul Mofaz and Moshe Ya'alon) were former IDF Chiefs of Staff. Most of them were either civilians or served at low ranks See the list below.*

Anyone familiar with the last 68 years knows that Israel has had excellent Defense Ministers who had no IDF experience at all: Ben Gurion, Eshkol, Arens, Peres, Begin, and civilian ones those were not that great: Lavon and Peretz for example.

And even among those who had IDF experience, some were great, some were good, and at least one made a terrible decisionthat cost Israel over 9000 casualties, of which 2,656 were IDF killed.

Like I said - I'm taking a wait and see position on Lieberman as Defense Minister.

Here is the list of Past Defense Ministers and whether or not they served in the IDF:

OrderMinister
1
David Ben-Gurion
civilian
2
Pinhas Lavon
civilian
-
David Ben-Gurion
civilian
3
Levi Eshkol
civilian
4
Moshe Dayan
IDF (General)
5
Shimon Peres
Civilian
6
Ezer Weizman
IDF (General)
7
Menachem Begin
Civilian
8
Ariel Sharon
IDF (General)
-
Menachem Begin
Civilian
9
Moshe Arens
Civilian
10
Yitzhak Rabin
IDF (General)
-
Moshe Arens
Civilian
-
Yitzhak Rabin
IDF (General)
-
Shimon Peres
Civilian
11
Yitzhak Mordechai
IDF (General)
-
Moshe Arens
Civilian
12
Ehud Barak
IDF (General)
13
Binyamin Ben-Eliezer
IDF (General)
14
Shaul Mofaz
IDF (General)
15
Amir Peretz
IDF (Captain)
-
Ehud Barak
IDF (General)
16
Moshe Ya'alon
IDF (General)
-
Benjamin Netanyahu
IDF (Captain)
17
Avigdor Lieberman
IDF (Corporal)

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