Israel's Security Status in 2014

   On Monday, November 25th, Israel’s top intelligence officials met with members of Netanyahu’s exclusive inner cabinet for a secret briefing at a secure Mossad facility in central Israel. The ministers were presented with an evaluation of various possible developments in the world and the Middle East in 2014 that could have a direct impact on the security of Israel and Israelis.

   Though the details of secret briefings cannot be divulged, knowledgeable sources in Israel reported that the ministers left the briefing with a look of contentment. Apparently the threat assessment for 2014 was for the most part pretty optimistic. 
   It seems that in 2014, despite the overall turmoil in the Middle East, the chance of a major ground war using large armor and infantry formations, between Israel and one or more of the countries in the region, is very low to nil. 
   With Israel at peace with Egypt and Jordan, Syria fighting a bloody civil war and Iraq falling apart, there simply is no country, or potential coalition of countries, that has the military ability, motivation or political will to mount a serious ground campaign against Israel.
   However an air war, with missiles, rockets and aircraft is distinctly possible in 2014, though not very probable. Let’s look at the regional players.

• Syria: Even though Syria possesses thousands of rockets and missiles that can cause devastating damage and casualties to Israel, both the regime and the rebels are too embroiled in a harsh civil war. The last thing either side wants, at least until the dust settles, is to open a front against Israel.
• Hezbollah. Despite having over 100,000 long, medium and short range rockets aimed at Israel, Nasrallah’s status in Lebanon is growing precarious by the day. Heavy troop losses fighting for the Assad regime in Syria, and the inability to provide security at home, have tarnished Hezbollah’s image greatly. Knowing how disproportionately destructive an Israeli retaliation would be to rocket fire from Lebanon, Hezbollah leadership currently prefers to avoid a conflict.
• Hamas (Gaza): Same as Hezbollah. Rapidly losing popularity due to an inability to govern and provide basic services to the population, the Hamas leadership simply can’t afford to be blamed for even more misery after an Israeli retaliation. 

    So according to most analysts, barring an unforeseen circumstance there is very little chance of a full blown war in 2014 on the scope of the 1973 Yom Kippur War, or the 1967 Six Day War.
   That was probably the “good” part of the evaluation briefing.
   The more ominous part may have dealt with the growing security threats posed by various Sunni terrorist groups and their fanatical, religious obsession with the very existence of Israel. While there have been anti-Israel terrorist groups from as far back as the Fedayeen in the 1950s, this latest crop are more numerous, more sophisticated, better trained, better armed and highly motivated.
   Their Muslim Brotherhood inspired goal, be “they” Al Qaeda, Hamas, Taliban, Jabhat al Nusra, Islamic Jihad or any one of the alphabet-soup Jihadi Islamist groups, is simple and frightening: First, establish Sharia law in all countries with a Muslim population, second, reestablish the Caliphate in Sinai, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Syria and the whole Middle East. Third, expand worldwide.  Israel is obviously in the way.
   I would be surprised if the briefing did not include the increase in the number of Jihadists in Sinai, and how Egypt is fighting them. It may have also covered the threat to Israelis (though not to the State of Israel) by the growing presence in Jordan and Syria of elements of Hamas and Al-Qaeda affiliates – all highly trained, combat experienced and armed with large quantities of weapons looted from Libya.    
      Iran is a whole different issue. I can’t imagine that the intelligence heads did not remind the cabinet ministers of the fact that Iran is already a “breakout” nuclear state, and that thanks to the unfortunate “Geneva Agreement” a few weeks ago, will remain so in the foreseeable future.
   So without having been a fly on the wall at that secret intelligence evaluation briefing, I would guess that the smiles on the minister’s faces as they left the facility meant that Israel’s security status for 2014 is good. There is no major ground war on the horizon, terrorism is being dealt with…and based on Netanyahu’s speech at the Saban Forum last weekend – we won’t have to worry much longer about Iran’s nuclear break-out capability...   
   Agree or disagree, that’s my opinion.

A Murky Middle East Future

        “The future ain’t what it used to be”, quips the great American philosopher Yogi Berra. That seems to be the unanimous verdict of every Middle East analyst today. 

    Those of us born after WW II have lived most of our lives with a pretty clear general perception of the dynamics of the Middle East, which basically went like this:

1. Israel was established in the historical Jewish homeland 1948 following a narrow vote in the UN.
2. All the Arab countries in the neighborhood, themselves created during the prior 25 years by the victors of WW I to secure oil supplies, refused to accept the Jewish state and every ten years or so launched a war to destroy it...which Israel always won.
3. During the Cold War the super powers were deeply involved in the region, with the USSR mostly aligning with the Arabs, and the USA and Europe with Israel.
4. During each war (1948, 1956, 1970-71, 1967 and 1973) the super powers would play “responsible adult” and pressure their respective clients to agree to a cease fire…then re-supply them with more modern and more powerful weapons.
5. The periodic Israeli-Arab wars would continue, at varying degrees of intensity, pretty much forever, with the major powers making sure that they ended in a cease-fire within days.

   But things changed with the collapse of the Soviet Union. Some Arab states aligned with Russia, but most, including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, Iraq, Kuwait, Jordan and others aligned with the US. 
   Israel remained a major beneficiary of an economic, military and diplomatic partnership with the US, creating a unique situation where both Israel and most of its enemies were now in alliance with the US. This led to the relatively quick signing of peace treaties between Israel and Egypt, and Israel and Jordan, and the establishment of quasi-formal but strong relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
   With Russia being a weak shadow of the former USSR, the United States became the single formidable and dominant super power in the Middle East. It signed official and unofficial economic and defense pacts with most of the Sunni Arab countries, from which Israel also benefitted.
   But a new super power has emerged - Iran. 
   With the imminent threat of a nuclear Shiite Iran that not only threatens to destroy Israel but also to exact a terrible historic “blood revenge”, in revenge for centuries of persecution by Sunni Muslims, and especially those in Saudi Arabia, the Sunni Arab countries in the Middle East turned to both the US and Israel for help against what they rightfully see as a clear and present danger to their survival.
  In interviews last week, Israeli, Saudi, Qatari and UAE leaders said that ironclad assurances were given by the US administration at the highest levels that the United States is unwaveringly committed that Iran will never have the capability to acquire nuclear weapons. They claim they were lied to by the US that had been negotiating for months with Iran secretly.
  This commitment was reiterated even as the P5+1 foreign ministers were in Geneva “closing” a deal that assures that Iran can not only keep its current high stockpile of enriched uranium and continue nuclear weapons development, but that evaporates the sanctions and establishes what was a pariah regime just last month as an equal sitting at the big boys table on international issues (Syrian peace talks…). Here is the executive summary:
For the next 6 months while “negotiations” are going on, Iran – already a nuclear “threshold” state according to the IAEA:

• Keeps all its already enriched Uranium
• Does not dismantle any of its 13,000 centrifuges in Natanz and Fordow
• Continues to enrich “certain quantities”
• Continues manufacturing vital parts for the Heavy Water reactor in Arak
• Keeps IAEA inspectors away from its nuclear weapons development and production facilities, as well as its secret nuclear bomb warhead testing facilities.
• Does not have to worry about an American military strike
• Thrives economically as American, Russian and Asian businesses are already drawing up lucrative contracts now that the sanctions are no longer being strictly enforced by the US.

   So even during the six month “negotiations” period Iran can continue to inch along at breakneck speed towards developing nuclear weapons, while enjoying significant economic relief. 
   And by the way, the six month period doesn’t start until January…in the meantime its business as normal in Natanz and Fordow.
  Over the past weekend every top Iranian leader said publically that the “Interim Agreement” is not finalized to their liking so the beginning of the negotiating period may be further delayed.
   It used to be, in the good old days when there were “responsible adult” super powers with vested interests in the region, that all you had to worry about was a short Israeli-Arab war every decade or so. 
   Today…”The future ain’t what it used to be”… and it seems to be changing daily.
   Agree or disagree, that’s my opinion.