Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Cease Fire - Middle East Style

In the Middle East, very few things are simple or straightforward. Arranging even a temporary cease fire in the Gaza war between Israel on one side, and Hamas and Islamic Jihad on the other side, is a case in point.
 
Here is why it’s so difficult.

First: Each side’s “carved in stone” demands (remember – this is for just a temporary cease fire, not a final agreement).

Israel:
  1. All organizations must halt all rocket and mortar fire.   
  2.  No terrorist attacks through tunnels.   
  3. Israeli ground troops continue to search for, and destroy remaining attack tunnels between Gaza and Israel, Will use force only in self-defense, if attacked

Hamas:
  1. Withdrawal of all IDF units from Gaza 
  2. Halt IDF air and artillery strikes 
  3. Open Rafah crossing point to Egypt, allow free movement of Gazans 
  4. Open all commercial crossing points to Israel 24/7
  5. Immediately enable transfer of cement and construction materials.
  6. International guarantees of all above, plus – that the IDF will not target leaders.
Second: The $64K question: Who is the broker?

Traditionally, cease-fires and peace treaties in the Middle East are negotiated by a mutually agreed and respected broker. Temporary or permanent agreements are reached by the broker (or his staff) painstakingly shuttling between the adversaries with suggestions, demands, drafts, amendments, etc. until an agreement is reached. 

Once the broker has signed off on all details of the agreement, the parties get together for a “Sulha” ceremony and the deal is confirmed.

The questions of who will broker a cease-fire, and whose “plan” will be on the table, have now become international issues of high contention.
 
Here are the players besides Israel:
U.S. – Israel’s traditional ally and almost exclusive supplier of arms and munitions, as well as international and political support. 
Egypt – At peace with Israel, excellent communications and cooperation between both militaries and political leaders. Strongest military in the Arab World. Uneasy relations with USA administration since outlawing the Muslim Brotherhood and arresting its senior leaders, including past president Mohamed Morsi and Supreme Guide Mohamed Badai. 
Jordan – At peace with Israel. Currently concerned that it’s growing Hamas terrorist groups will link up with the Islamic State (ISIS) that is already threatening the kingdom.
Qatar – Tiny (4,467 sq. miles) oil and gas rich (GDP: $215 billion – richest country in the world per capita) Sunni Arab country. Adheres to Muslim Brotherhood doctrine. Biggest supporter of Hamas, whose senior leaders live there in luxury and protection. Home of Al Jazeera, which in its Arabic and worldwide broadcasts is rabidly anti-Israel. Also home of the biggest US military base in the Middle East. 
Turkey – Once a good friend and ally of Israel (The first Moslem country to recognize and establish diplomatic relations with Israel in 1949, things went downhill with the current pro-Muslim Brotherhood, pro-Hamas Islamist government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan. His recent statements comparing Netanyahu to Hitler and the IDF to Nazis has eliminated him as a possible broker.

  So here’s the “broker” update.

 Last week Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the Emirates and presented a plan (“the Egyptian plan”) that Israel agreed to and would include disarming Hamas of rockets and destroying the tunnels, while both sides held fire for a designated period and negotiated a final agreement with a broker yet to be chosen... At first it looked like the US also agreed, until Secretary of State Kerry met with the foreign ministers of Qatar and Turkey, and essentially rejected the Egyptian plan and seemed to embrace the Qatari-Turkish plan, which reads like it was written by Haled Mashal – the Hamas leader.

The US then came out with a similar “plan” demanding an immediate Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and a cessation of air and ground strikes, with no guarantee of a halt in the rocket barrage on Israel.

Oh – and the question of demilitarization of Gaza including removing all the rockets and mortars and tunnels will be left for discussion and resolution during the final Israel-Palestine peace talks. The word “delusionary” came up frequently as analysts tried to understand this new American position.

But the most jaw-dropping suggestion from the Secretary of State was that the American position, “after careful consideration and consultation”, is that the best cease-fire, and long term arrangement brokers, would be…Qatar and Turkey – two Muslim Brotherhood countries!

 If that’s true, and that happens, then Israel may need to start looking for a new ally. Because to quote the State Department Spokesperson herself this week: “That’s not the way to treat a friend”

Thursday, July 24, 2014

Rockets, Tunnels and Cease Fires

    Over the last week, I’ve noticed that some people are confused about these three concepts. Here is a short “Guide to the Perplexed”.

Rockets:

    Hamas and Islamic Jihad started the war with a stockpile of over 10,000 rockets of various types. Many had been supplied by Iran and Syria, and the rest manufactured in sophisticated, modern, underground factories scattered throughout the strip. Learning from their experience in the last Gaza war, they placed the launchers for the biggest missiles in numerous buried single-use silos, knowing full well that each launcher would be destroyed by Israel after its first use. Reusable multi-barrel launchers were placed in or close to mosques, schools, hospitals, day-cares and large apartment buildings.
     As of Tuesday, July 21, Hamas had launched over 2,000 rockets at Israel. 92% of those heading for populated areas were intercepted by the Iron Dome anti-missile system. The rest fell into open areas in Israel or into the Gaza strip where they caused considerable damage and casualties.
     The IDF estimates that it destroyed another 20-30% of the rocket stockpile, leaving Hamas with around 5,000 rockets. Many launchers had also been destroyed by air and ground attacks. On Tuesday night the IDF announced a noticeable reduction in the quantity of rockets fired that day.

Tunnels:

   Over the last five years Hamas has spent billions of dollars constructing a maze of underground tunnels, divided into two distinct categories: Network tunnels and Terror tunnels 
  • Network Tunnels: This is an impressive engineering feat of literally building a “city beneath the city”. In the last several years, an entire city has been built 60 feet underground, exclusively for Hamas leadership and terrorists.  It is a complex series of underground passageways, some wide enough for a golf cart or jeep to get through, at two, three and even four levels, that includes large storage rooms, “living” areas, running water, plumbing, electricity, air, weapon stores, military style first aid stations (including operating rooms), and enough food to keep the political and terrorist leadership for months. These tunnels connect all the important buildings, hospitals and command centers, and several lead to “escape areas” for pick-up at the sea shore, hidden above-ground helipads or into Israel. In a damning report by the Washington Post, it was revealed that the Shifa Hospital in Gaza City has become Hamas’s ‘de facto headquarters’, where they operate a central command center four stories below the hospital. Hamas’ leaders are often seen in the hallways and offices, or packing Palestinian children into ambulances to accompany them when traveling through Gaza’s streets.

  • Terror Tunnels: These are large tunnels that lead into Israel for one of three purposes: 1.To let fully armed terrorist teams infiltrate Israel near a community to perpetrate major “Quality” terrorist attacks and then return to Gaza with hostages. 2. Tunnels that reach under nearby communities or military bases which are packed with explosives to be detonated with devastating results. 3. To smuggle weapons to Hamas terrorist cells inside Israel.

   It is the Terror Tunnels that Israel is seeking out and destroying in the ground operation. They are not connected to the “city beneath the city”, which Israel is leaving alone for now, even at the risk of letting Hamas terrorist leaders escape.
     American satellites have recently found at least 60 of these terror tunnels crossing the Israel-Gaza border, each at a cost of around $1 million. Each terror tunnel is complete with electricity and phone lines connecting back to the central command centers.
     Almost all of Israel’s military casualties to date have been during the uncovering of the Terror Tunnels, or while fighting Hamas terrorists that infiltrated using them. That’s why Israel will not agree to any permanent ceasefire until they are all destroyed.


Cease Fire

   As of this writing, there is an attempt in Cairo to arrange a temporary cease fire.
   With the exception of maybe more short  “humanitarian” lulls to let people stock up on food, water and basic supplies (all of which are sent into Gaza daily by Israel), I doubt that any significant breakthrough will happen for the simple reason that neither Israel nor Hamas want it.

   Israel has not yet reached its operational goal of stopping the rocket attacks and destroying all the Terror Tunnels.  Hamas has yet to achieve that elusive “quality” mass-casualty military success which will enable it to claim a “victory” that forced Israel to “beg” for a cease fire.
   With all due respect to the distinguished statesmen meeting in Cairo who think that they know what is best for Israel and the Palestinians, and that everything can be resolved with a few million dollars here and a wink and a nod there – with all the terrible pain and suffering on both sides, this war is not ready to be over yet, not by a long shot.

Wednesday, July 16, 2014

Let Israel Do Its Job

Protective Edge Updates:
  • On July 16, a five hour humanitarian cease fire was observed by Israel and Hamas. 
  • Meetings in Cairo to try to work out a longer agreement failed. The Egyptians blamed Hamas. 
  • Rocket fire from Gaza continued, targeting most of Israel. 
  • The IDF increased air and artillery attacks against Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorism infrastructure.
  • To date: 1,400 rockets have been fired at Israel since July 8. 
  • July 17 – The IDF launches major ground operation against terrorist tunnels between Gaza and Israel that enable terrorists to carry out terror attacks. Hamas builds these terror tunnels close to Israeli communities in order to infiltrate and abduct Israelis. Hamas terrorists used such a tunnel to infiltrate into Israel Wednesday morning in order to perpetrate a large-scale attack against Israeli citizens. 
  • Large formations of IDF armor, infantry, engineers and support units entered Gaza. 
  • In the first few hours, the IDF discovered several tunnels and engaged Hamas terrorists. One Israeli soldier was killed. 
  • On Friday, July 18, the ground operations were expanded, as Hamas continued to fire missiles at Israel’s major cities.
  The anti-missile system Iron Dome is doing an outstanding job of intercepting over 90% of the rockets headed for populated areas.

How did it start?
What was Hamas thinking when it decided to rain rockets on Israel? That Israel’s reaction would be any less fierce than in the two previous Gaza wars? Knowing exactly what Israel does when even one rocket or mortar shell is fired, why would they launch hundreds, bringing on themselves so much pain and destruction?
      
To answer these questions we have to go back to June 12th, when the three Israeli teenagers were kidnapped and murdered in the West Bank.

Within 24 hours the Israelis knew, from the forensic evidence in the “burnt car” that they had been shot and were probably dead. They also knew the names of the two Hamas terrorists who did it. And yet for the next three weeks, thousands of soldiers and Shin Bet agents searched almost every hill, house, well, cave and valley, especially in and around the city of Hebron where the car had been found. 

So while it’s true that some of them were looking for the teens, either to rescue or retrieve, the IDF’s main mission was to utilize a unique opportunity to dismantle the political and terrorist infrastructure that Hamas had carefully and quietly built in the West Bank. It included political offices, terrorist recruitment and training bases, command and control centers, weapon and ammunition factories and stockpiles, and an elaborate network of underground spaces and tunnels under the city of Hebron.

During the operation over 600 active members of Hamas were arrested, including 50 that had been released in the Gilad Shalit deal. Dozens of computers and hundreds of files were seized, together with substantial quantities of weapons. Some of the most significant seizures were very large sums of money that were deposited in local Arab banks, as part of an elaborate and illegal worldwide Hamas funding scheme.   
   
The leadership of Hamas in Gaza and Qatar panicked. Realizing that they were losing their entire infrastructure and assets in the West Bank, and that Israel, even after the teens were found slain, was intensifying the operation against them, they decided to start what the thought would be a small tit-for-tat “skirmish,” in the South to force Israel to ease up in the West Bank.

Hamas fired two small rockets and one mortar shell into Israel. In the immediate response, the IDF killed the terrorists and their commander. Hamas responded with a barrage of rockets, triggering operation “Protective Edge”.         

The objective of Operation Protective Edge, as defined by Prime Minister Netanyahu, is to restore long term quiet and security to Israeli civilians by seriously degrading Hamas and other terrorist groups' military capabilities while inflicting a significant blow to Hamas and the Islamic Jihad.

Lebanon:
The three rockets fired last Friday from Lebanon into Northern Israel were answered immediately with pinpoint artillery fire that destroyed the launchers. Hezbollah was not involved. Shiite Hezbollah has no intention of opening another front in the North. Neither will Iran allow it to put the over 40,000 rockets and missiles it has in Lebanon at risk – certainly not to help Sunni Hamas. Also – because Iran is convinced that with the expected failure of the P5+1 nuclear deal this weekend, Israel may now launch a military strike. With the extensive damage to Hamas in Gaza, those rockets in Lebanon are the only force projector Iran has left to either deter Israel, or be used in punishing retaliation.

The Israelis and their allies in the region (Jordan, Saudia, Egypt, etc.) know that the rockets and missiles in Lebanon must be neutralized before any strike on Iran is possible.  There is nothing the Israelis would like more than to be given the justification to go into Lebanon with double the fire-power being used in Gaza today to eliminate that threat.

In the new Middle East, with ISIS gaining strength and support daily, with Hezbollah taking over Lebanon and Iran racing to have nuclear weapons, showing weakness is not a luxury Israel can afford. With the failed cease-fire attempt, and Hamas still holding a stockpile of over 6,000 rockets, Israel has a job to do. It will not be short. There will be casualties and pain. 

Bottom line:
Strange as it may sound, a defanged, demilitarized Hamas in power in Gaza is the lesser of evils – as long as Israel finishes destroying the rockets and tunnels. Hamas can be overthrown. The alternative could be worse. Just Imagine ISIS taking over Gaza with all the rockets, mortars and terrorist tunnels still intact.

 Let Israel do its job.

Wednesday, July 9, 2014

How did the Middle East get so screwed up?


How did the Middle East get so screwed up?  That is a question that I’m asked more and more these days.
   In just the past few weeks we’ve seen the murders of three Israeli teens by Palestinian terrorists from Hamas and the murder of a Palestinian teenager by young Israeli terrorists, while rockets and mortars are again hitting Israel from Gaza as the IDF destroys Hamas military infrastructures both in Gaza and the West Bank.
   We’re watching as large parts of Syria and Iraq morph into an Islamic jihadist caliphate, led by a man nicknamed “the butcher from Baghdad “, who heads ISIS, the biggest and most dangerous terrorist organization in the world that is now marching on Jordan. At the same time Iran is building nuclear weapons, Iraq, Lebanon and Syria are disintegrating…and Hezbollah is watching the World Cup soccer matches from Israeli broadcasts.
   Now that’s screwed up.
   How did it happen? How did the cradle of civilization and the birthplace of the three great monotheistic religions reach this volatile point in time?
   Numerous books and scholastic research papers have suggested several explanations.  Some experts blame the Sunni-Shiite rift that dates back to the eighth century. But while that has a lot to do with what’s happening today, it’s not the only cause.  Others blame the establishment of Israel in 1948, and while that is true regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, it has nothing to do with the current civil wars in Syria and Iraq, the creation of ISIS or the nuclear ambitions of Iran.
  As for me, I like to pinpoint the current Middle East mess to a singular event that happened on June 28, 1914, at 10:45am in Sarajevo – the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria, which led to World War l, which led to the break-up of the Ottoman empire (AKA the last Muslim caliphate), which led to the arbitrary creation of hybrid countries that never existed until 1922, which is the real cause of today’s crisis.
    Here’s why:
   We know that there were nation-states in the Middle East from biblical times onwards, some small – virtually city-states like Jaffa, Tyre, Ashkelon, etc. Others were larger, like the kingdoms of Judea and Israel, Canaan and Pleshet, while others like Rome, Greece, Egypt, Parthia, Media, etc. grew to become empires.  In general, the citizens of these countries, or nation-states, proudly identified as: “Jews”, “Philistines”, “Romans”, “Greeks”,” Egyptians”, etc.
  However all that ended with the Muslim conquest that started in 635 CE.
  The notion of any national and/or religious identity or loyalty other than Islam is frowned upon, and heavily taxed (Jizya).  Once one has converted to Islam he or she ceases to be “French” or “American”  and becomes a member of the “Ummat al-Islamiyah” (or “Ummah”) , the collective global community of Islamic peoples.
   Therefore, as the armies of Mohammed and his successors (“caliphs”) conquered country after country in the Middle East, North Africa, Southern Europe and Southwest Asia, they abolished the concept of national identity, converted the ruling classes to Islam and declared all territories to be part of a single “Islamic State”, ruled by a single “Caliph” (“successor”) and governed by Sharia law and customs.
   So with few exceptions, from the end of the Muslim conquest in the 11th century until the end of WWl, the model of nation-states did not exist in the Middle East, which was a vast area made up mostly of deserts, high mountains and precious little water. It was sparsely populated by tribes of desert nomads or Bedouins, and centuries old towns or cities on major land or sea trade routes. Each town or city was ruled by a clan or tribal leader, usually with the title “Malik” (king, chieftain, village head, etc.), “Emir” (prince) or “Sheikh”, who pledged loyalty to the Caliph and submitted revenue to the Islamic State from the Jizya tax levied on non-Muslims.
   As for the nomads, while there were no borders, each large tribe, or confederated groups of tribes, had their own territorial roaming or trading area, with sufficient water sources, that they guarded fiercely from other tribes. The caliph was responsible for overall security for the entire Islamic State, regardless of where his capital was.
   The main caliphate dynasties over the last 1300 years were:

  • The Umayyad dynasty in Damascus (661–750), 
  • The Abbasid dynasty in Baghdad (750–1258), and later in Cairo (1260–1517),
  • The Shi'ite Fatimid dynasty in North Africa and Egypt (909–1171). 
  • The Ottomans in Constantinople (1299–1924).

   For over 600 years, as caliphs of Islam, the Ottoman Sultans ruled over the largest empire in history.   
  
Then four things happened:  

  1. The assassination of  Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria 
  2. World War l 
  3. The discovery of huge amounts of oil in the Middle East 
  4. The Sykes–Picot agreement 

   Even before the war started it was clear that the Turkish Empire would be split up between the victors. The discovery of huge deposits of oil in parts of the Middle East made the division more contentious.
   The Sykes-Picot Agreement of 1916 was a secret agreement reached during the war between the British and French governments regarding the partition of the Ottoman Empire among the Allied Powers.         
   Essentially it gave Britain control over what is today Israel, Egypt, Sudan, Jordan, Iraq and the Arabian peninsula, France got  what today is Morocco, Tunisia, Syria, Algeria and Lebanon, and Italy got Libya.
   But these countries never intended to rule their new colonies – just to guarantee supplies of oil (and in the case of Great Britain – also sovereignty over the Suez Canal).
   One of the first things they did was to divide their huge mandates into manageable regions. They then identified and recruited suitable leaders from among the local tribal warlords, and paid them absurd amounts of money and weapons for their loyalty. Usually they looked for the head of the largest tribe or the fiercest warlord and made him governor of the region, often with a newly minted royal title.
   The problem is that in creating these artificially drawn “regions” the colonial powers did not take into account the fact that many of these “regions” include diverse ethnic, religious, racial, cultural and tribal groups that rarely interacted before, didn’t always speak the same language or dialect, were not of the same religion (Christians, Muslims, Jews, Animists, etc.), or branch of a religion (Sunnis, Shiites), or had tribal wars going back centuries.  They didn’t care. As long as the appointed “Governor” guaranteed the oil supplies or other national interests of the colonial power, as well as domestic tranquility, they rarely questioned how it was done, who was favored, who was persecuted, which tribes were annihilated or removed from their ancestral land or which religions were forcibly converted to Islam.
   Within a few years, once the administrations were working and the relations between the colonial power and the loyal appointed governors were established, the patron countries started granting independence to the regions, creating states and countries where none existed before, ruled by newly established “royal dynasties” of kings, emirs and sheikhs who by then had established systems of patronage, favoritism and corruption, while still being paid for their loyalty to their colonial master.
   The problem is that nobody bothered to ask the different groups of people in these “countries” what THEY wanted.   Many of them didn’t want to be bundled into a new “nationality” with people that prayed differently, that looked differently, that spoke differently or had different traditions.
   Three generations ago they were afraid to speak out, but they passed their frustrations down to their children, who passed them to their children, who today have added problems like unemployment and substandard education, while the elitist descendants of the “governors” now live in palaces and villas.
   That is what brought about the “Arab Spring” which toppled the dictatorial regimes but created an “Islamist Summer”, which spawned ISIS, and now empowers it, together with Hamas and Hezbollah…not to mention reawakening the irreparable 1300 year old Shiite-Sunni conflict.
  Many factors contributed over the years, and World War 1 would have inevitably started anyway, but I still like to think that the Middle East today is screwed up because of a bullet fired in a Sarajevo street by a 19 year old Yugoslav nationalist named Gavrilo Princip on June 28, 1914, at 10:45 am.

Tuesday, July 1, 2014

Three tragedies, punishing Hamas

    Eighteen days after they were kidnapped, the bodies of Gilad Shaar, Naftali Frenkel, and Eyal Yifrach were found in a small crevice, covered by rocks and brush, just a few miles from where they went missing. From the forensic evidence found at the scene and in the Israeli car that was set ablaze in Hebron during the night of the kidnapping, we now have a clearer picture of what happened.
   Around 10pm on Thursday night, June 12th, Gilad Shaar and Naftali Frenkel left their school to hitchhike home from a nearby junction. Eyal Yifrach, who they did not know, was also there.
  A stolen Israeli Hyundai i35, approached. In it, pretending to be Israelis, were two trained Hamas terrorists, Amer Abu Aysha and Marwan Kawasme, both known to the Israeli and Palestinian authorities.
   It is assumed that at first they only saw Yifrach, but when they stopped and all three got in they may have feared being overpowered and said something in Arabic.
   At that point Gilad Shaar made a phone call to the police emergency line, whispering: “We’ve been kidnapped” followed by shouts and what sounds like gunfire. The call was not taken seriously, despite reports that an officer tried to call back eight times and only got voice-mail.
   The terrorists, realizing that he was calling the police or perhaps because the teens were preparing to fight, changed their plan from kidnapping to murder.
   I have listened to a recording of the call, and you can clearly hear shouting in Hebrew with a thick Arabic accent: “heads down” followed by shots and groans of pain.
   The IDF radio station reported Tuesday that the three were shot in the back seat during the phone call. It said blood and a bullet case were found in the car, as well as some of the killers’ personal effects.
   They then drove a short distance before abandoning the Hyundai and setting it on fire.
   Abu Aysha and Kawasme transferred the bodies to a second car, and drove to the field in the Halhul area where the teens were found on Monday, bound and partially buried in a hole under a plastic sheet and piles of rocks. The area was being searched intensely since the land where the bodies were found belongs to the Kawasme family, and Gilad Shaar’s broken glasses were found nearby.
   Now Israel has to respond. Prime Minister Netanyahu has said: “Hamas is responsible and Hamas will pay”.
Which raises a dilemma: How can Israel punish Hamas severely and painfully, but without removing Hamas from control of Gaza? Strange as it may seem, in the convoluted logic of today’s Middle East, with the Islamic State (ISIS) taking over large parts of Syria and Iraq while giving a strong tailwind to the most extreme Jihadist groups, any regime that will replace Hamas today will only be worse. The only “secular” option to Hamas in Gaza is a return to full Egyptian sovereignty… and that’s not going to happen any time soon.
   So what are Israel’s immediate options? Most analysts agree on the following:
1.    Capture or kill Abu Aysha and Kawasme and anyone else involved
2.    Continue destroying the entire Hamas infrastructure in the West Bank: military units, weapons, financial sources, leadership, command and control, communications, etc.
3.    Return to jail the 50+ Hamas prisoners that were released in the Gilad Shalit swap (they have all been re-detained in the past two weeks, together with 380 other terrorists, mostly from Hamas).
4.    Because Hamas is now directly involved in firing rockets daily into Israel, Israel should continue with surgical air strikes to destroy all missiles, missile assembly plants, storage bunkers, launchers, launch teams and militants of Hamas and other Jihadist organizations in Gaza.
5.    But since the alternative will be worse, Israel should refrain from targeting the political leadership of Hamas in Gaza, as well as the civil infrastructure it needs to govern.

   Israel has to be careful and smart. Hamas must be made accountable for the kidnapping and rocket fire in a way that will serve as a message and deterrent to it and other terrorist organizations. But with the Islamic State Caliphate now controlling areas of the Syrian Golan Heights, and its black flags already appearing in a rallies in Jordan, Israel cannot afford to risk its relations with, and support from the US and EU.