Thursday, June 26, 2014

The kidnapped Teenagers and the upcoming Gaza war

As of this writing, Monday, June 23, The IDF and Israeli security services are still searching for the three teenagers that were kidnapped a week ago from a junction near their school in the West Bank.
   Here’s what we know at this time.
·         Thursday, June 12, 10:00pm: Gilad Shaaer, 16, and Naftali Frenkel, 16, left their school on their way to their homes for the weekend. They probably walked the short distance to the nearest main road.
·         A few minutes later they arrived at nearby Gush Etzion Junction, on the main road between Jerusalem and Hebron, where the met up with Eyal Yifrach, 19.
·         10:15pm - The three were seen together at the junction.
·         There has been no sign of them since.
·         It is believed that they hitched a ride together following the cardinal rules of hitchhiking in the West Bank:
o   Only a car with Israeli license plates
o   Speak to the driver to confirm that he/she is Israeli
o   Never enter a car if there is anyone, male or female, in the back seat.
o   Never hitchhike alone.
·         At 10:25pm a call came in to the emergency police line in which a voice whispered “we’ve been kidnapped”.
·         A young soldier, serving her national service with the police, took the call and asked her commanding officer to listen to it.  He thought it was a prank and told her to ignore it. Had he followed protocol, he would, with the press of one button, activated a system called Compass. Compass identifies the owner of a telephone, and gives police access to a caller's list of contacts, enabling them to contact family or friends to determine if the emergency is legitimate.
·         A police spokesman claimed that those who received the call didn't understand what was whispered over the line. The officer also stressed however, that this was no excuse for Compass not being activated.
·         "At least they could have checked with the family of the owner of the phone if everything was ok," said the officer.
·         At 3:00am the father of one of the boys called the police to report him missing.
·         Around the same time a call came in about a car on fire in Hebron
·         The police now connected the dots and informed the IDF and GSS (Shin Bet).
·         Based on intelligence data, the Israelis zeroed in on elements in Hamas in the Hebron area that opposed the agreement with Fatah on a unified government.
·         Over 2,000 IDF combat soldiers and elite police officers started combing the city of Hebron and its surrounding hills. A difficult mission considering that there are thousands of active and abandoned wells in the area, as well as hundreds of natural and man-made caves and tunnels.
·         Searching house to house with special equipment, the IDF discovered a network of previously unknown tunnels that led from various houses to large underground spaces.
·         They also arrested over 250 active members of Hamas, including several that had been released in exchange for Gilad Shalit.
·         A top Israeli security official said that Saleh al-Arouri, the founder of Hamas’s armed wing in the West Bank, was a key figure behind the abductions.  Earlier this year Israeli military officials attributed an uptick in Hamas-driven violence in the West Bank to Arouri, who is based in Turkey and has in recent years reportedly taken “sole control” of efforts to rebuild Hamas’s terror infrastructure in the West Bank.
   As of this writing, despite extensive searches of the West Bank by massive numbers of IDF troops and police, as well as intensive intelligence work, there has been no sign of the teenagers or their captors.
   Israel has three clear objectives in “Operation Brother’s Keeper”:
1.    Bring the three Israeli teenagers home, hopefully alive and well.
2.    Systematically destroy Hamas’s political and terrorism infrastructure in the West Bank.
3.    Force Abu Mazen to cancel the unification agreement with Hamas and disband the “unity government”.
  Gaza: In the meantime, in order to possibly ease the Israeli pressure on their leaders in the West Bank, over the past two weeks Hamas has allowed terrorist groups in Gaza to resume firing rockets and mortars into Israel.  Israel has reacted each time with air strikes, directly at the launchers.
   However, knowledgeable sources have claimed in the past few days that a large-scale air and ground assault on all terrorist assets in the Gaza strip, especially those of Hamas, is almost inevitable for three reasons:
1.    The current round of rocket and mortar attacks on Israel
2.    Because of the loss of its infrastructure in the West Bank and deteriorating popularity in Gaza, Hamas will launch heavy rocket fire to compel Israel to transfer forces from the West Bank for a short (even if highly destructive) operation in Gaza. Hamas believes that this round will end like the previous two: with an Egyptian brokered, American and EU backed cease-fire that will strengthen Hamas and financially benefit the Gaza residents.
3.    To reestablish and strengthen Israel’s deterrence.

  To summarize: At this moment we are looking at a highly probable third Gaza war, caused by the current major Israeli military operations to dislodge Hamas in the West Bank, which was triggered by the kidnapping of three Israeli teens.   

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