Understanding the Syrian Civil War

The Syrian civil war, now raging for over four years, is once again in the headlines after a Turkish F16 shot down a Russian SU24 that allegedly penetrated Turkish airspace during a bombing run against Sunni rebels in Syria.

From the queries I’m getting it’s clear that even people who follow the Middle East are finding it hard to make heads or tails about what the war is about, who is fighting whom…and to what end, which countries are supporting which combatants, and why are manned and unmanned American, Russian, French, Jordanian, Saudi, Emirati, Turkish and Israeli combat aircraft flying attack missions in Syria…all at the same time!

So to get things straight, here is my updated “Syrian War Lexicon”:

Syria:

• A country that never really existed throughout history.
• Gained independence from France 1941.
•  Doomed from the outset to be a failed “nation state” since its artificially drawn borders included people of different and hostile ethnic and religious backgrounds:

Sunnis (Arabs, Kurds) – 72%

Alawites (Shiites) – 12%

Christians – 10%

Druze – 6%

• France imposed democratic rule, under the Sunni majority, that ended in a coup in March 1949, followed by several more coups.
•  A 1966 coup removed the Sunni civilian leadership.  Alawite General Hafez al-Assad seized power and became Prime Minister.
• 1971, Assad declared himself President and head of the secular Baathist party.
• Since then, the Baathist party, dominated by members of the Alawite minority and headed by the president, has remained the only political authority in what is a single-party state. Syrian voters can only “approve” the president by referendum, but cannot vote in multi-party elections for the legislature.
• 2002 - Bashar al-Assad became President of Syria when his father died. He and Asma, his British-born Sunni Muslim wife, initially inspired hopes for democratic reforms. They never materialized.
• By 2011, there was a growing bitterness among the marginalized and disenfranchised Sunni majority population against the privileged and affluent Alawite (Shiite) dictatorship.

The Civil War

• Sparked in 2011, after 15 schoolchildren were arrested and tortured for writing anti-government graffiti on a wall. When the town’s leaders protested, the army opened fire, killing four. The next day the Alawite soldiers opened fire on the funerals.
• Unrest spread. At first the protesters, mostly Sunnis, just wanted democracy and greater freedom, but as government forces opened fire on more demonstrations, they demanded that President Bashar al-Assad, resign. He refused, thereby starting one of the most brutal civil wars in history, with fighters and countries from all over the world participating.
• To date over 250,000 people have been killed, over 9 million have been displaced inside Syria and at least 1 million have become refugees after crossing into Turkey, and Jordan.

Who’s who in the Syrian conflict:

Pro Assad:

•  Regime Forces – About 25% of the original Syrian Military. Mostly Alawites, Christians, Druze and volunteers.
• Iran – About 3,000 combatants and growing, including regular forces, Special Forces, Missile Command, artillery and extensive air and logistical support. Iran is determined to maintain control of its over 100,000 missiles and rockets currently deployed in Syria and Lebanon and aimed at Israel. They know that any Sunni rebel group that gets its hands on them will point them at Shiite Iran – the Sunnis arch enemy. 
• Russia – Full commitment to maintain Alawite control over their historical coastal homeland, where Russia has invested heavily in building a modern naval base in Tartus and an Airforce base in Latakia. Russia is currently focusing its attacks on preventing Sunni rebel forces – including those supported by the US, from getting near that area or threatening the regime.

Against Assad:

1.    Sunni Rebel Organizations: The main fighting forces attempting to overthrow Assad, kill and enslave the Allawites, destroy their homeland and establish Sunni majority rule. Not unified and often in conflict with each other, these include:

o   Jabhat al-Nusra – Al-Qaeda franchise at war with US and the West.

o   ISIS

o   Free Syrian Army (FSA)

o   Islamic Front

o   A number of smaller Sunni groups that are supported by:

2.    USA - Having learned nothing from the “unintended consequences” of the Arab Spring, the US administration is demanding the removal of the last anti-Muslim Brotherhood dictator in the region in favor of “democratic national elections”.  But with an overwhelming majority of Sunni Muslim citizens who support anti-American and anti-Israel Jihadist groups (like Al-Qaeda and ISIS), such elections will just establish another Muslim Brotherhood inspired extreme Islamist regime that will set about to slaughter, enslave, torture, rape, plunder and destroy the Alawite, Shiite, Christian, Druze, Kurdish and Yazidi communities throughout Syria and Lebanon. 

So far US activity against Assad has been limited to diplomatic calls for his resignation, failed attempts to unite “moderate” rebel groups, failed attempts to build, train and equip a reliable multi-sectorial “Free Syrian Army” (FSA) and relatively symbolic and unsuccessful support for so called “moderate” Sunni rebel groups

3.    Saudi Arabia – The Sunni Kingdom’s policy has always been to rid all Arab lands of “non-Sunni” infidels, in this case the Alawite Regime in Syria, and replace them with solid Sunni regimes, in the hope that they will unite against the real threat to Saudi Arabia – Iran.

But there is another war raging in Syria and Iraq – The war the US declared against ISIS. This obviously has nothing to do with getting rid of Assad. If it did, then what is the logic of bombing the strongest Sunni rebel group dedicated to defeating the regime?

And by putting together a “coalition” against ISIS (which most of the members are only paying lip service to), the US has created a dangerous situation where in a very small airspace there are pro-Assad (Russia, Iran, Syria), anti- Assad (US, Turkey, Saudi Arabia), anti ISIS (US, France, UK, Jordan, UAE) and anti-Hezbollah (Israel) supersonic fighter bombers flying attack missions at the same time.    

Executive Summary:

1.    Syria is an artificial country established by France in 1946 encircling all or parts of 4 distinct and separate ethnic homelands:

o   Arab (Sunni)

o   Alawite (Shiite)

o   Kurd (Sunni)

o   Druze

2.    Since a 1966 coup, the country has been a dictatorship under Alawite military and political leaders, much to the detriment of the Sunni majority.

3.    Following the “Arab Spring” a Sunni rebellion broke out. Regime forces reacted with brutality, including chemical weapons and devastating block-busting “barrel bombs”.

4.    The Sunni rebels include terrorist groups affiliated to Al-Qaeda and ISIS, which already control large swathes of the country.

5.    The US supports the anti-Assad rebels.

6.    Russia, supporting Assad, has established air, ground and naval bases in the Alawite Homeland area. Infuriating Washington, Russia is launching heavy air strikes against the Sunni rebel groups that threaten its bases and Assad’s regime forces in the Alawite area. 

7.    In addition, the US, France, Germany, Turkey, the UAE, Jordan, Syria and a few other allies are bombing ISIS targets in Syria and Iraq.

8.    Adding to the already dangerous situation – Israel, determined to prevent missiles and heavy weapons from reaching Hezbollah in Lebanon, is also flying combat missions in Syria.

9.    With Turkey and Russia on opposing sides of this war, and with the skies over Syria and Lebanon getting more crowded with adrenalin driven combat pilots, I have a feeling that the shooting down of the Russian bomber by a Turkish F-16 will not be the last of such incidents.

 
The Syrian war can be resolved, eventually, by splitting the country into its five natural “nation states” under strong no-nonsense supervision and military guarantee of an international, reliable super-power (Russia?), or a united Arab League. This is not the time or place for clueless “coalitions”, and certainly not for a toothless UN.