At the opening plenum session of the UN General Assembly on Monday, President Obama said that any resolution in Syria must include the removal of Bashar Al-Assad as president. President Putin, in his speech, insisted that Assad was not the problem and that his exit would enable the Sunni Jihadists, mainly ISIS and Al-Qaeda affiliated Jabhat Al-Nusra, to take over the country.
Putin's
argument has merit. Obama's incessant calls for the removal of Assad is
a continuation of the well-intended but totally naive, misguided and
eventually disastrous US policy during the so-called "Arab Spring" of
assisting with the overthrow of secular, stabilizing, pro-Western
dictators in favor of "democratic elections". And we all know how that turned out.
Those
US driven elections brought to power extreme anti-American Muslim
forces like the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, etc.,
and Shiite Iran in Iraq and Yemen.
Putin
gets it. He knows that Assad is a cruel dictator, but he also knows
that ISIS and Al-Nusra are far worse. He knows that Syria, as a
sovereign state, no longer exists.
(See map below) It is already permanently divided back into four
distinct areas of sectarian control: about 70% of the country is
controlled by Sunni ISIS or Al-Nusra, with the Kurds and Yazidis
self-governing their historical homelands in the North (helped by Iraqi
and Iranian Kurds), the Druze in their homeland in the Southwest
(unofficially helped by Israel) and the Alawites (Assad's sect) holding
on to the narrow coastal area, their historical homeland, and for the
moment Damascus, thanks to what's left of the Syrian military, dwindling
Hezbollah forces and Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC) Al-Quds
Brigade fighters.
Putin
understands that the idea of bringing everyone together in a kumbaya
session to put this Humpty Dumpty back together again is ridiculous. But
is preserving the Alawite dictatorship, with or without Assad, in Syria
his real goal? In "Syria" - no. But in the Alawite homeland (the red
area in the map above), yes!
With
the breakup of the Soviet Union, Russia realized that it needed a warm
water port and Middle East airbase to continue to project force,
influence policy and protect Russian economic and diplomatic interests
in the region. Working closely with, and supporting both Hafez Al-Assad,
and his son Bashar, Russia supplied the minority Alawite regime with
weapons, air power training, advisers, and lots of money and diplomatic
support, in exchange for the construction of a modern, deep water naval
base at Tartus, and use of the Basel-Al Bashar civilian and military
airport at Latakia - both locations within the traditional Alawite
homeland on the warm Mediterranean coast.
If the Alawite homeland fell to the Sunni Jihadists, and right now they are very close, Russia would lose both facilities.
Barbara Opall, writing this week in defencenews.com,
quotes Dima Adamsky, associate professor at the Herzliya
Inter-Disciplinary Center's Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy and
Strategy, who said that Putin seeks to play a constructive role in the
chaos that is Syria and the region beyond. In an article in Foreign Affairs and
a subsequent interview last week, Adamsky said he expected Putin to
push for a UN mandate to forge and help secure a diplomatic solution for
Syria which, despite US objections, will include Assad and Iran.
Beyond
Putin's desire to regain a foothold in the region and fortify Assad, a
strategic ally, Adamsky cited Russia's "very real strategic concern" in
stemming the spread of Islamic jihadists who may return to wage
insurgencies in Russia and its interests in Central Asia and the North
Caucasus.
Moreover,
Moscow's buildup in Syria allows it to cultivate new alliances and arms
markets in the region while rehabilitating its pariah status in the
West due to land grabs in Crimea and eastern Ukraine.
Adamsky
also noted Russia's new naval doctrine, published earlier this year,
which prescribes a permanent presence in the Mediterranean, with the
naval facility at Syria's port town of Tartus playing a critical role.
"Syria
used to be the Soviet naval center of gravity during the late Cold War,
from which it launched actions testing the US Sixth Fleet. It's now the
only overseas base of the Russian Navy outside of the Russian
Federation, and a robust presence there is definitely part of their
plan," he said.
As Imra.org reported on Tuesday from Israel:
- "American failure to militate against a Syrian regime deploying chemical weapons, barrel bombs and creating a deluge of refugees has all but paved the way for Moscow to reassert a Soviet-like presence in the war-wracked country and the warm Mediterranean waters beyond".
- "That, in a nutshell, is the widely held assessment of Israeli policymakers and experts, who blame Washington for creating yet another layer of complexity in Israel's operations against Hezbollah, the Tehran-sponsored Lebanese Shiite organization battling on behalf of the Bashar al-Assad regime".
- "According to the Russian expert who routinely plays the role of Putin in war-game exercises in Israel, Russia's return to the region is unstoppable, and it is up to Washington, NATO, Israel and others in the region to adapt their policies accordingly "Putin is here to stay... Russia's doctrine prescribes a penetration into warm Mediterranean waters, a foothold in the Middle East and this will force Israel, the US, Turkey and other actors to rearrange and rethink how they've been engaging Syria since the end of the Cold War," he said.
Also
quoting Adamsky, Imra agreed that Putin's move is "a seemingly very
elegant move. It enables him to address several issues across different
domains: He fortifies Assad, battles the Islamic States, sustains arms
and energy markets, and is in a position to open new relationships and
alliances in the region.
And through the Russian Orthodox Church, he can portray himself as the
savior of the persecuted Christian minority in the region."
But
Israel is still very concerned. Bibi Netanyahu flew to Moscow last week
with top IDF commanders and Intelligence officers. They met with Putin
and his security chiefs and agreed on a mechanism for deconfliction to avoid mishaps.
Yaakov
Amidror, a retired Israeli major general and former national security
adviser to Netanyahu, insisted that planned deconfliction mechanisms are
tactical and do not imply any agreement on Israel's part for strategic
coordination with Russia. "In areas where more than one state is
operating in the same theater, you need deconfliction," he said.
I
personally agree with Amos Gilad, the Defense Ministry's longtime
director of policy and political military affairs, who estimates that
Assad controls barely 25 percent of Syria's once sovereign territory,
with ISIS now battling the al-Qaeda linked Al-Nusra Front for control of
the Golan. "To our north, there is a country that was once called
Syria. But Syria has disappeared. There is no Syria, and I don't think
it ever will return." Gilad said.
Which is why I cautiously welcome, for the time being, a strong Russian presence, as the lesser of evils.
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