Monday, August 24, 2015

Summer Observations

Until I get return to the office next week, here are some observations with links to more detailed analysis about the latest developments in Israel and the Middle East.

IRAN NUKE DEAL
The debate on the November vote in Congress regarding the terrible P5+1 nuclear "Deal" is heating up. Both sides - the shrinking "in favor" side and the growing domestic and international "against" side are ratcheting up the rhetoric, together with threats, accusations, war prophesies, name-calling and mean personal attacks.
   The way I see it - here's what's shaping up:
1.   Congress will probably vote "no" but without a veto-proof majority.
2.   President Obama will veto it.
3.   As far as the "deal" is concerned it wont mean a thing.
4.   There is a better than 50% chance that it will be rejected by either the Iranian Majalis (parliament), the Grand Ayatollah or both.

Below are a few links to articles that look at the "Deal" from various Israeli, American, Iranian and international perspectives.

As you an clearly see, even if the P5+1 and Iran actually ratify it and eventually sign it (neither has been done yet!), there is no way it will:
  • Prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
  • Stop Iran's empirical hegemonic aspirations and activities.
  • Stop Iran's support of worldwide terrorism
  • Change Iran's obsession with the destruction of America and Israel (as seen in this week's rocket attacks on Israel from Syria)
The "Deal" just gets worse the more we learn about it from day to day. As David Horovitz says in his well argued editorial below: "Even the Iranians plainly didn't think they'd get away with a deal this ridiculous. It's akin to having Bernie Madoff scrutinize his own business practices, or Tour de France cyclists conduct their own doping tests... except it has global life-and-death implications". 
A simple question for anguished Democratic legislators on Iran - , The Times of Israel August 20

Enriching Iran - Gabriel Scheinmann


Congress Should Step Up to Block the Iran Agreement - Joseph I. Lieberman (Washington Post)


Israel - Iran
According to all indications, including the five year plan for the IDF issued by Chief of General Staff Lieutenant General Gad Eisencot, while Iran remains the main strategic threat, Israel has no current intention to launch a direct air strike against Iran's nuclear facilities at this stage. However since Israel is not part of the P5+1 "Deal", I have no doubt (and it's clear from the plan), that Israel will continue and expand covert operations that have successfully delayed and sabotaged Iran's nuclear ambitions in the past. Top Iranian nuclear scientists and engineers will either disappear, die in "accidents" or defect while "mysterious" explosions will take place at strategic locations...and who can forget "Stuxnet"?

But all this can change if Iran decides to threaten Israeli citizens again, as it did last week, by launching rockets from Syria or Lebanon. While Israel's precise and deadly retaliation strikes were against Syrian regime positions and successfully targeted he actual Islamic Jihad terrorists who launched the rockets, Israeli officials made it crystal clear that the orders to fire the rockets were given by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard's Al Kuds force, commanded by General Qassem Suleimani. 

Israel holds Iran directly responsible for the attacks and promises retaliation if they continue. With over 100,000 Iranian controlled short, medium and long-range missiles in Lebanon and thousands more in Syria pointing at Israel, another barrage could lead to full scale war...which Israel does not want but is fully prepared for.

I will continue to deal with these developing issues in upcoming Updates, as well as US-Israel relations in the wake of the "Deal" (hint: still very good despite the ongoing Bibi-Obama administration personal animosity). 

I'll also cover the complex (and sometimes negative) role many American Jews have played in shaping this relationship from 1897 to today.

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