Iran's Strange Syrian Gambit

Last week's deadly rocket fire between Israel and Syria was not an accidental falling of munitions inside Israel during one of the Syrian civil war battles, nor was it just another minor tit-for-tat exchange started by a terrorist organization for whatever reason. On the contrary - it was a major event that gives us a good indication of Iran's strategy, based on its long-term declared goals: eradication of Israel, establishment of hegemonic control over large swathes of the Middle East and an ongoing, death-by-a-thousand-cuts humiliation of the United States.

 

What happened last week?

 

On Thursday, for the first time since the Yom Kippur War in 1973, four rockets were deliberately fired at an Israeli community in the Galilee from an area under the control of Bashir al-Assad's military.

 

Israel retaliated immediately with air, rocket, drone and mortar fire towards Syrian military bases near the launch site, killing one Syrian soldier and wounding seven.

 

The next day, Friday, Israeli forces struck a car in the village of al-Qom in the Syrian-controlled area of the Golan Heights, killing five terrorists of the Islamic Jihad cell that launched the rockets..

 

The Israeli military said its forces targeted the area, describing those there as "part of the terror cell responsible for the rocket fire at northern Israel on Thursday."         

 

Israeli officials blamed Thursday's attack on militants affiliated with Palestinian Islamic Jihad, a radical group headquartered in Gaza with some fighters based in Syria. Israel says the group depends on Tehran for funding and direction.

 

According to Israel, the attack was directed by Saeed Izaadhi, the head of the Palestinian unit of the Iranian military's Quds Force, under the direct command of General Qassem Suleimani, a close confidant of the Grand Ayatollah.

 

"This attack on Israeli territory was directed by Iran," said an Israeli senior official. "In other words, the Iranians launched aggression against Israel using a surrogate organization."

 

But, why now?

 

There are several theories, but I agree with Israeli military and Arab commentator Ron Ben Yishai who wrote in Ynet: "The recent rocket fire toward Israel fits the policy of Iran's protégé's (terrorist organizations in Gaza and Syria, ge) in the past year - retaliating against any perceived attack by Israel - whether it's the interception of smuggled weapons from Syria and Iran via the bombing of supply convoys, or the targeted assassination intended terrorist bombings in the Golan Heights and Galilee panhandle".

 

As Ben Yishai sees it - "According to Iran's new policy, The Golan and Lebanon are a single front, on which Hezbollah is fighting Israel. This January, Hezbollah fighters shot anti-tank missiles at Israeli forces in Har Dov, killing two IDF soldiers, in retaliation for the assassination of two Hezbollah leaders, which was attributed to Israel".

 

But Iran is careful at the moment. According to Ben Yishai: "The policy has stayed the same, and it seems that this time the Iranians chose to fire into Israel, even deep into it, but not to cause much damage or kill. This is probably due to the fact that the targets of the three-vehicle assassination were fairly low-ranking (Islamic Jihad, ge) members".

 

Today, Iran holds over 100,000 short, middle and long range missiles and rockets in Lebanon, under the control and command of elite IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps) forces that are capable of reaching everywhere in Israel with potentially catastrophic results.

 

But since Israel has put Iran, and the world, on notice that at the start of a war between the two countries, it will deploy massive tactical and strategic conventional forces to destroy a majority, if not all of those missiles, rockets and launchers (together with the Iranian IRGC fighters and Hezbollah terrorists located near them), while simultaneously destroying tactical and strategic military targets in Iran...it doesn't seem logical that the Ayatollahs really want to go to war with Israel before they have a chance to reap all the benefits from what I still call a very bad "Deal".

 

Then again...this is the Middle East - don't count on logic.

Summer Observations

Until I get return to the office next week, here are some observations with links to more detailed analysis about the latest developments in Israel and the Middle East.

IRAN NUKE DEAL

The debate on the November vote in Congress regarding the terrible P5+1 nuclear "Deal" is heating up. Both sides - the shrinking "in favor" side and the growing domestic and international "against" side are ratcheting up the rhetoric, together with threats, accusations, war prophesies, name-calling and mean personal attacks.

   The way I see it - here's what's shaping up:

1.   Congress will probably vote "no" but without a veto-proof majority.

2.   President Obama will veto it.

3.   As far as the "deal" is concerned it wont mean a thing.

4.   There is a better than 50% chance that it will be rejected by either the Iranian Majalis (parliament), the Grand Ayatollah or both.

Below are a few links to articles that look at the "Deal" from various Israeli, American, Iranian and international perspectives.

As you an clearly see, even if the P5+1 and Iran actually ratify it and eventually sign it (neither has been done yet!), there is no way it will:

• Prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
• Stop Iran's empirical hegemonic aspirations and activities.
• Stop Iran's support of worldwide terrorism
• Change Iran's obsession with the destruction of America and Israel (as seen in this week's rocket attacks on Israel from Syria)

The "Deal" just gets worse the more we learn about it from day to day. As David Horovitz says in his well argued editorial below: "Even the Iranians plainly didn't think they'd get away with a deal this ridiculous. It's akin to having Bernie Madoff scrutinize his own business practices, or Tour de France cyclists conduct their own doping tests... except it has global life-and-death implications". 

A simple question for anguished Democratic legislators on Iran - David Horovitz, The Times of Israel August 20

Enriching Iran - Gabriel Scheinmann

Iran Nuclear Chief: We Won on Nuclear Deal

Congress Should Step Up to Block the Iran Agreement - Joseph I. Lieberman (Washington Post)

The Nuclear Deal: No Pause in Iran's Vow to Destroy Israel - Lt. Col. (ret.) Michael Segall

Israel - Iran

According to all indications, including the five year plan for the IDF issued by Chief of General Staff Lieutenant General Gad Eisencot, while Iran remains the main strategic threat, Israel has no current intention to launch a direct air strike against Iran's nuclear facilities at this stage. However since Israel is not part of the P5+1 "Deal", I have no doubt (and it's clear from the plan), that Israel will continue and expand covert operations that have successfully delayed and sabotaged Iran's nuclear ambitions in the past. Top Iranian nuclear scientists and engineers will either disappear, die in "accidents" or defect while "mysterious" explosions will take place at strategic locations...and who can forget "Stuxnet"?

But all this can change if Iran decides to threaten Israeli citizens again, as it did last week, by launching rockets from Syria or Lebanon. While Israel's precise and deadly retaliation strikes were against Syrian regime positions and successfully targeted he actual Islamic Jihad terrorists who launched the rockets, Israeli officials made it crystal clear that the orders to fire the rockets were given by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard's Al Kuds force, commanded by General Qassem Suleimani. 

Israel holds Iran directly responsible for the attacks and promises retaliation if they continue. With over 100,000 Iranian controlled short, medium and long-range missiles in Lebanon and thousands more in Syria pointing at Israel, another barrage could lead to full scale war...which Israel does not want but is fully prepared for.

I will continue to deal with these developing issues in upcoming Updates, as well as US-Israel relations in the wake of the "Deal" (hint: still very good despite the ongoing Bibi-Obama administration personal animosity). 

I'll also cover the complex (and sometimes negative) role many American Jews have played in shaping this relationship from 1897 to today.

Jewish Jihad

The great Jewish poet, Chaim Nahman Bialik, wrote in his epic poem The City of Slaughter, about the 1903 Kishinev pogroms: "revenge for the blood of a little child - has yet to be devised by Satan".    

Last week, Israel experienced two deadly Jihadi-style terrorist attacks: In the first a terrorist murdered a sixteen year old girl in a vicious knife attack that also injured five others.

In the second attack terrorists set fire to a home in the West Bank village of Duma, burning to death a beautiful eighteen month old toddler and leaving his parents and four year old brother fighting for their lives.

In both attacks the terrorists were orthodox Jews. Both attacks were motivated by extreme religious fanaticism.

The first happened last Thursday, during the annual Gay Rights Parade in Jerusalem. This event has always drawn large crowds of Gay and non-Gay supporters and marchers, as well as vocal and sometimes violent anti-Gay protesters. It is always protected by large numbers of police.

Twelve years ago an orthodox Jewish man named Yishai Shlissel attacked the marchers with a butcher knife, injuring several. Arrested, tried and convicted, he was released from prison just four weeks ago, after serving ten years of his twelve year sentence.

Despite the police knowing of his release and probable presence in Jerusalem, Shlissel (in full orthodox dress including a long, black coat on a blistering hot day) was able to rush into the parade brandishing a butcher knife and stab six of the participants, killing sixteen year old Shira Banki, an honors student at the prestigious Hebrew University High School in Jerusalem, before he was overcome and arrested.

The second horrific Jewish terrorist attack was on Friday. Members of an underground organization known as the "Revolt" or the "Price tag" group (after the messages they spray on structures they deface or damage), threw gasoline and Molotov cocktails into two homes in the Palestinian village of Duma in the West Bank. One house was empty. In the other house was occupied by the Dawabshe family.

The youngest child, 18 month old Ali Dawabshe, was burned alive despite heroic attempts by his parents to save him as he screamed. His mother, father and 4 year old brother are still fighting for their lives in Israeli Hospitals.

These Jewish terrorist groups may be random "wild weeds" in Israel's religious ideological society, but they are brainwashed and encouraged by a small number of extremist rabbis who claim that the victory of Israel against Jordan in the Six Day War was, in fact, God returning the "Promised Land" to Abraham's decedents, and therefore cannot be negotiated away.

They follow religiously the anti-Arab racist teachings of the late Rabbi Meir Kahane. It was no surprise that on Monday, the Israeli Shin Bet arrested far-right activist Meir Ettinger, the firebrand grandson of Rabbi Kahane and one of the leaders of the "Revolt". According to his worldview, violence must be committed in order to light the flames of conflict and cause the Israeli government to collapse. Anarchy would follow, and then a new (orthodox) order could be created.

Ettinger also has said recently that the laws of the State of Israel don't apply to the true "believers"...only the Laws "from above"

Unfortunately with every successful unanswered attack the number of followers of this warped ideology seems to grow.

Israel must stop ignoring these "wild weeds" and deal with them with force and determination at every level. They and those who inspire and encourage them must be regarded as full blown terrorists, incarcerated for long periods of time (either judicially or administratively), and not allowed to be glorified or praised.

Netanyahu has tough decisions to make and execute, since the Shlissels of Israel, the Ettingers of Israel and the rabid, fanatical rabbis that goad them on have at least the tacit support and sympathy of some of the parties in his very narrow coalition.

This Jewish "holy" terrorism must be eradicated.

We are Jews. We are not followers of the ancient Ammonite god Molech. I cannot imagine that our Creator wants, or tolerates, the burning alive of innocent children or murdering of parade participants in His name.

These are religious, fanatical terrorists, no better than ISIS, Hamas or the Taliban.    

However because they come from within us - they are our responsibility. They must be stopped before Ettinger's prophesy of anarchy becomes reality.