Israel has been monitoring Yemen's Houthi uprising for
over a year now, and with good reason. Like Hezbollah in Lebanon, the
Houthis in Yemen are an Iranian proxy military force, shouting exactly
the same slogans we heard in Teheran just last week: "Death to America! Death to Israel! Curse the Jews! Victory to Islam!"
The Houthi Zaidiyyahs,
or "Fivers", belong to a Shia sect with slightly different beliefs than
those held by the Shiites in Iran, AKA "Twelvers". Despite this they
act in full allegiance to Tehran, which provides them with advanced
weapons, equipment, training, leadership, reinforcements and money. Now
that the Houthis have taken the strategic port town of Aden, at the
entrance to the Red Sea, the concerns of Israel, Egypt and the Saudis,
are clear:
- The Iranian takeover of the narrow Bab el Mandeb Straits puts every ship sailing to or from Israel's strategic port of Elat and Egypt's Suez Canal (which handles over 2/3 of Europe's oil imports and about 10% the world's commercial shipping) in direct threat of attacks by Iranian forces or their proxies.
- The Iranian-Houthi takeover of Yemen has added to the rising influence of Iran in the region, enabling the jihadist Islamic Republic to vastly improve its position during the latest negotiations over its nuclear program. One immediate result is that decision makers in Israel, France and the Arab countries have come to an understanding over the past few months that the Americans have no intention of imposing demands on Iran with regards to halting military operations or terrorist attacks in other countries, as part of the deal over Tehran's nuclear program.
But
Israel's concerns regarding the Houthi takeover of Yemen is nothing
compared to the profound ire of Riyadh and other Sunni Arab countries,
in light of Iran's rampage throughout the Middle East and the blatant inaction on the part of the US.
The
anger of the Saudis, Egyptians, Jordanians, Emiratis and other Sunni
Gulf states is not directed at Iran, which is engaged in the kind of
regional hostile activity expected of it, but mainly at the US, which
appears to be either ignorant of, ambivalent to, or actually taking
sides in the centuries old Sunni-Shiite conflict.
They can't understand the fact that while the White House was
intensively negotiating with Iran in an attempt to reach an agreement on
that rogue nation's nuclear program by the end of March, the Shiites in
Tehran toppled a majority Sunni regime and made significant territorial
advances. Yemen is a state with a long and unmanned border with Saudi
Arabia, Iran's number one regional rival. Yet Washington remained
silent.
This just adds to the concerns of Arab and Israeli leaders who are still struggling with the White House's insistence on demonstrating exceptional weakness in
its ongoing talks with Tehran. The expectation by Sunni Arabs and
Israelis was that the world's major powers will at least try to pressure
Tehran to halt its military operations in a variety of destinations in
the Middle East, as part of any deal on Iran's nuclear program.
Such
pressure against Tehran over its involvement in Yemen or Iraq, such as
leaving economic sanctions in place, could inspire the ayatollahs to
reconsider their advances in the region. But for now, under the White
House "zero action" policy, Iran continues doing whatever it wants
without having to miss a beat.
A
Houthi/Iranian victory in Yemen, combined with a weak P5+1nuke deal,
will have major negative ramifications throughout the Middle East:
- It will give Iran its long desired domination over a huge swath of the region.
- It will enable Iran to expand its planning and support of worldwide terrorism.
- It will start an immediate nuclear arms race in the region amongst unstable regimes.
- It will threaten shipping through the Suez Canal.
- It will threaten American assets and interests worldwide.
- It will continue to directly threaten Israel's long-term security, as well as the security of every American allied Sunni country in the region and beyond.
Is it too late to do anything? Of course not!
By
the end of this week we may know if the Iranian nuke deal is absolutely
great (not just "good"), meaning it ends any chance of Iran having
nuclear weapons of any form, at any time in this or the next century,
and includes cessation of all Iranian military and terrorist actions.
But...if
the deal is less than "Great" or if the negotiations are once again
"extended", then this is the time for America to wake-up, behave like
the exceptional Super Power and world leader we are, and simply fulfill
the promises, treaties, guarantees and commitments we gave to Israel and
the Sunni states in the Middle East.
This is the time for the USA to:
- Understand that the current Iranian regime is dead-set on having nuclear weapons, destroying Israel and expanding its hegemony throughout the Middle East and Europe.
- Internalize that this not a regime that negotiates "in good faith", nor does it negotiate according to Western culture or norms.
- Accept the fact that no-one in the P5+1 negotiating team has a clue about Middle East, and specifically Persian negotiating customs or tactics.
- Realize that the only diplomacy they respect is good old American "Gunboat Diplomacy". Therefore in my opinion, the US could:
- Launch a warning "shot across the bow" at one of the nuclear facilities. Maybe a conventionally armed, low yield cruise missile, to make a crystal-clear point.
- Promise that if Iran does not sign a "great" nuke deal within 72 hours (time for foreigners to evacuate to predesignated safe areas), then it will feel the full wrath of an angry America and our fed up regional allies.
- If they sign - great. But if they don't sign, then...
- Keep the damn promise!!! (It worked with Japan, right?)
Either way the main upsides are:
- Renewed Respect for America in the Middle East and the world,
- Israel and Sunni Arab countries will feel safer,
- No nuclear arms race, at least for a while.
- Iran pulls out of Yemen, Iraq and Syria.
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