Operation Protective Edge: The Cairo Negotiations

  Last week’s update ended on a ray of hope. An Egyptian brokered 72 hour cease fire was holding, and as a result the Israeli and Palestinian delegations to the Cairo “long-term arrangement” talks had started indirect meetings. That means that Egyptian negotiators, usually senior Intelligence officers fluent in Hebrew and Arabic, were shuttling between the two delegations with offers and counter offers. This is because Hamas refuses to talk directly to Israel, and though the Palestinian delegation was officially from Abu Mazen’s Fatah party, it included a senior Hamas official who had the authority to negotiate.

   But al-Sisi’s Egypt refuses to talk directly to Hamas, having outlawed it as a terrorist organization. So how were the negotiations conducted? Stay with me here, and read the next sentence slowly: The Israelis talked to the Egyptians, who then talked to the Fatah members of the Palestinian delegation, who then talked to the Hamas representative who, after calling Hamas leader Haled Mashaal in his fancy hotel in Qatar, responded to the Fatah guy, who relayed the message to the Egyptians, who passed it on to the Israelis, who after speaking to Jerusalem went back to the Egyptians... Welcome to Middle East negotiations.

   Remember – these talks are over terms for negotiating a mutually accepted long-term truce arrangement, with international guarantees, that would insure quiet for Israel (no rockets, mortars, terror attacks through tunnels or other means) from Gaza, while giving the Palestinians in Gaza the ability to rebuild (not tunnels!!), develop a thriving economy and live normal, peaceful lives.

   But the talks were conditioned on maintaining and extending the absolute cease-fire.

Unfortunately, the 72 hour cease-fire was broken last Friday by Hamas launching rockets into Israel just two hours before it was to be extended. The Israeli delegation returned home. Over the weekend Hamas continued to fire rockets and Israel responded with air, tank and artillery fire.

    The Egyptians succeeded in calling for another 72 hour truce, starting Sunday at midnight (Cairo/Jerusalem time) and ending Wednesday at midnight.

   After 5 hours of quiet, the Israelis returned to Cairo on Monday and the talks resumed…but in a different and somewhat better format. The Egyptians are watching from the side. The Israelis and Palestinians (Fatah only!) were meeting face to face. The lead Fatah negotiator then went from time to time to speak to the Hamas guy who is on a different floor, and then relays his reply to the Israelis.

   As of this writing, the negotiations have been extended by five days. Both sides say that the talks are difficult, but that small progress is being made.

  Israeli news media is reported that there seems to be some agreement on the following issues:

1.    That the cease-fire will be extended as long as the quiet was maintained to enable the talks to continue.

2.    Hamas will not get an airport.

3.    As for a sea port – there will be wording in the agreement that an international company will be authorized to start developing plans for a port, and eventually build it, subject to the security and political situation. In other words – 5-6 years down the road.

4.    There will be no “safe passage” road from Gaza to the West Bank as Hamas had demanded.

5.    Israel will double the weekly amount of supply trucks into Gaza from 250 to 600 a week.

6.    Israel will allow transfer of money from the Palestinian Authority to Hamas to pay salaries.

7.    Israel will allow construction materials, including cement in under strict international (not UN!) supervision.

8.    Israel will increase the number of permits into Israel for Gaza residents.

9.    Egypt will open Rafah crossing 24/7 but it will be controlled on the Gaza side by Abu Mazen’s Fatah presidential security forces, not Hamas.

10.  As a gesture to Abu Mazen, Israel will release the fourth group of prisoners promised during the stalled Israel-Palestinian peace talks.

11.  Israel will not release the 50 Hamas prisoners from the Shalit exchange deal that were recaptured in the West Bank during the search for the three kidnapped and murdered Israelis.

12.  Providing there are no attacks, the issue of demilitarization of Gaza will be deferred at this time.

But – all this is possible only if the current cease fire is extended and the talks continue in Cairo.

Most Israeli commentators, when asked what the chances are of the current cease fire being extended and a long-term truce arrangement being signed, set them at a cautious 50-50.

   I would give it much less of a chance. I don’t think that this war is over, and neither does the IDF which is still in full combat formation, rested, and prepared to deal with any situation, on several fronts.