Operation Protective Edge: It’s Over…For Now

   On Tuesday, August 26, Israel and Hamas announced that they accepted an Egyptian proposal for an open-ended cease-fire starting immediately. At 7:15 PM Jerusalem time all rocket and mortar fire ceased from Gaza, and Israel stopped attacking militant targets.

   The silence was eerie. No sirens, no explosions on either side, no Iron Dome interceptors streaking skywards, no pillars of fire lighting the Gaza night, no roar of Israeli jets on endless rounds of attack missions or the ominous and unmistakable sounds of  Israeli combat helicopters hovering briefly as they face the target they are about to destroy with devastating air-to-ground missiles.

   The silence was disrupted in Gaza by spontaneous celebrations in the streets, accompanied by festive gunfire in the air. Hamas spokesmen bragged over every loudspeaker in the squares about the “glorious victory” over “the army that no-one else in the world could beat”

  What “Victory?” – When the leaders of Hamas finally crawled out of the bunkers they were cowering in during the war they saw the terrible devastation they had caused. Large areas of the Gaza Strip are in ruins. Whole residential and commercial areas are piles of rubble. Public service buildings are unusable and the hospitals are over-crowded and understaffed. There is almost no electricity or running water. Broken sewage pipes spill raw sewage into the streets.

    A lot of the damage happened in the previous week, and could have been prevented if only Hamas had accepted just one more 24 hour cease-fire extension, to give the negotiators time to reach an interim deal.

   But as predicted in this update last week, the cease-fire was never extended. The rocket fire from Gaza intensified in volume and range, and we saw more use of mortar fire by the terrorists. Last Friday, a mortar shell killed a beautiful; smiling four year old boy, Daniel Tregerman, who was just inches away from reaching the “secure area” inside his home in Kibbutz Nachal Oz.

   As the rocket and mortar barrages continued around the clock, Israel stepped up strikes against the launchers and military targets of both Hamas and the Islamic Jihad. Israel warned the entire population of Gaza, through thousands of flyers, hacked Palestinian radio and TV broadcasts and direct phone calls to immediately evacuate any building or area where Hamas or Islamic Jihad military activity was taking place, as that area or building will be attacked by the IDF.

   On Sunday and Monday the Israeli air force destroyed several multi-story office and apartment buildings after warning the occupants, because they were being used as terrorist command centers or launch sites.

  In addition, Israel successfully continued to decimate the command structure of the military wing of Hamas through precision targeted killings. One attack targeted Mohammed Deif, the legendary and elusive commander of the Hamas military wing. Hamas announced that while his wife and son were killed when the house they were hiding in was destroyed, there was no information about whether Deif himself was killed or injured. Either way the pinpoint attack on his secret hiding place was a huge psychological blow to the terrorist organization.

   The following day Israel succeeded in eliminating the three most senior military commanders of Hamas directly under Deif.    

   Despite losing their senior command, the rocket fire did not ease up. Over the past weekend more than 200 rockets and mortars were fired at Israel, including several towards Tel-Aviv, Jerusalem and Ben Gurion airport.

   As the cross border attacks continued relentlessly, the Egyptians succeeded in getting all sides (Israel, Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the smaller “resistance groups” in Gaza) to agree to a new “cease-fire”. This one will not be time limited, and will be conditioned on absolute “quiet for quiet”.

   As of this writing the new cease-fire has held for 3 days.

  

Here is a summary of the war from August 8 to today:

• Since July 8th, 4,564 rockets and mortars were fired at Israel from Gaza Strip.
• Most proved to be harmless when of the 3,641 which exploded in Israeli territory only 224 hit residential areas, and the remaining fell in open areas; Iron Dome intercepted over 735.
•  Over 1,300 of the rockets hit the Eshkol Regional Council (Near the Gaza Strip)
• The IDF attacked 5,263 targets across the Gaza Strip, hitting rocket launching sites, arms and munitions factories and warehouses, as well as the homes and offices of Hamas and its local regime.
•  Over 34 attack tunnels were destroyed.
• Palestinian health officials say 2,139 people, 490 children, have been killed 
• Over 980 of them were Hamas or Islamic Jihad terrorists.
• An estimated 470 of them were children. 
• Over 11,000 were injured. 
• The Palestinian Center for Human Rights said 540,000 people had been displaced in the Gaza Strip and roughly 100,000 are homeless.
• Israel has said Hamas bears responsibility for civilian casualties because it operates among civilians and uses schools and mosques to store weapons and as launch sites for rockets. 
• Israel's death toll stood at 64 soldiers and six civilians – one was a 4-year-old boy.
• Israel's Ministry of Tourism reports that tourism for July dropped by 26 percent from the same period last year.
• Israel's Manufacturers Association estimated the total economic impact on Israeli manufacturers for this round of the conflict at about 1.2 billion shekels. 
•  The agricultural sector has also experienced significant physical damage from the falling projectiles.

   Here are the details of the Egyptian Cease-Fire:

• Hamas and other militant groups in Gaza agree to halt all rocket and mortar fire into Israel. 
•  Israel will stop all military action including air strikes and ground operations.
• Israel agrees to open more of its border crossings with Gaza to allow the easier flow of goods, including humanitarian aid and reconstruction equipment. 
• In a separate, bilateral agreement, Egypt will agree to open its border with Gaza at Rafah.
•  The Palestinian Authority, headed by President Mahmoud Abbas, is expected to take over responsibility for administering Gaza's borders from Hamas. Israel and Egypt hope it will ensure weapons, ammunition and any "dual-use" goods are prevented from entering Gaza. They also expect tight monitoring of imports of construction materials like cement and cast iron to make sure they are used to rebuild or build homes rather than tunnels that have been used to attack Israel.
• The Palestinian Authority will lead coordination of the reconstruction effort in Gaza with international donors, including the European Union, Qatar, Turkey and Norway.
• Israel is expected to narrow the security buffer - a no-go area for Palestinians that runs along the inside of the Gaza border - reducing it from 300 meters to 100 meters if the truce holds. The move will allow Palestinians more access to farm land close to the border.
• Israel will extend the fishing limit off Gaza's coast to six miles from three miles, with the possibility of widening it gradually if the truce holds. Ultimately, the Palestinians want to return to a full 12-mile international allowance. This was also part of the previous ceasefire deal in 2012, and was briefly implemented before being rescinded in March 2013.

Longer term issues to be discussed within one month (If the Cease-fire holds)

• Hamas wants Israel to release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners rounded up in the West Bank following the abduction and killing of three Jewish students in June.  Hamas initially denied involvement in the killings, but a senior Hamas official in exile in Turkey last week admitted the group did carry out the attack.
• President Abbas, who heads the Fatah party, wants freedom for long-serving Palestinian prisoners whose release was dropped after the collapse of peace talks between Israel and the Palestinian Authority.
• Israel wants Hamas and other militant groups in Gaza to hand over all body parts and personal effects of Israeli soldiers killed during the war.
• Hamas wants a sea port built in Gaza, allowing goods and people to be ferried in and out of the enclave. Israel has long rejected the plan, but it is possible that progress towards it could be made if there are absolute security guarantees. In antiquity, Gaza was a major port in the eastern Mediterranean, a critical point for spice trading. There have been plans to build a new port since the Oslo peace accords in the mid-1990s, but no progress has been made.
• Hamas wants the un-freezing of funds to allow it to pay 40,000 police, government workers and other administrative staff who have largely been without salaries since late last year. The funds were frozen by the Palestinian Authority.
• Israel has said it wants the full "demilitarization" of Gaza. The United States and European Union have supported the goal, but it remains unclear what it would mean in practice and Hamas has rejected it as unfeasible. It is possible that Israel will raise it again as talks progress.
• The Palestinians also want the airport in Gaza - Yasser Arafat International, which opened in 1998 but was shut down in 2000 after it was bombed by Israel - to be rebuilt.

Bottom Line:

  So what does Hamas have to show for all the devastation, pain and suffering it caused the residents of Gaza in the past two months, with a lofty promise that this struggle is worth the pain because it will: “Break the blockade”, “Build a seaport”, “End the occupation”, “Release the prisoners, “Liberate Jerusalem”, “Get compensation from the donor countries” and more – nothing more than a few more miles of fishing in a very restricted area.

   Two months of death and destruction which brought the people of Gaza exactly back to where they were at the end of the last war in 2012. 

Operation Protective Edge: Day 51 – Is it over?

On Tuesday August 26 at 11:00AM CST, Israel and Hamas announced that they accepted an Egyptian proposal for an open-ended cease-fire starting immediately. Within fifteen minutes all rocket and mortar fire ceased from Gaza, and Israel refrained from attacking militant targets.

   The silence was eerie. No sirens, no explosions on either side, no Iron Dome interceptors streaking skywards, no pillars of fire lighting the Gaza night, no roar of Israeli jets on endless rounds of attack missions or the ominous and unmistakable sounds of  Israeli combat helicopters hovering briefly as they face the target they are about to destroy with devastating air-to-ground missiles.

   The silence was disrupted in Gaza by spontaneous celebrations in the streets. Hamas spokesmen bragged over every loudspeaker in the squares about the “glorious victory” over “the army that no-one else in the world could beat”

   “Victory?” – I don’t think they’ll still think so when they look around and see that the Strip is literally destroyed. Whole residential and commercial areas are piles of rubble. Public service buildings are unusable and the hospitals are over-crowded and understaffed. There is almost no electricity and no running water. Broken sewage pipes flow into the streets.

    A lot of the damage happened in the past week, and could have been prevented if only Hamas had accepted just one more 24 hour cease-fire extension, to complete an interim agreement.

   But as predicted in my article last week, the cease-fire was never extended. The rocket fire from Gaza intensified in volume and range, and we saw more use of mortar fire by the terrorists. Last Friday, a mortar attack killed a beautiful; smiling four year old boy, Daniel Tregerman, who was just inches away from reaching the “secure area” inside his home in Kibbutz Nachal Oz.

   As the rocket and mortar barrages continued around the clock, Israel stepped up strikes against the launchers and military targets of both Hamas and the Islamic Jihad. Israel warned the entire population of Gaza, through thousands of flyers, hacked Palestinian radio and TV broadcasts and direct phone calls to immediately evacuate any building or area where Hamas or Islamic Jihad military activity was taking place, as that area or building will be attacked by the IDF.

   On Sunday and Monday the Israeli air force destroyed several multi-story office and apartment buildings, after warning the occupants, because they were being used as terrorist command centers or launch sites.

  In addition, Israel successfully continued to decapitate the command structure of the military wing of Hamas through targeted assassinations. In one attack the IDF targeted Mohammed Deif, the legendary commander of the Hamas military wing. Hamas announced that his wife and son were killed when the house they were hiding in was destroyed, but have not yet confirmed whether Deif was killed or injured. Either way the pinpoint attack on his secret hiding place was a huge psychological blow to the terrorist organization.

   The following day, in a separate strike, Israel succeeded in killing the three most senior military commanders of Hamas directly under Deif.    

   But the rocket fire did not ease up with over 200 rockets and mortars fired at Israel over the weekend, including several towards Tel-Aviv, Jerusalem and Ben Gurion airport.

   In the midst of all this, as the attacks continue, the Egyptians succeeded in getting all sides (Israel, Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the smaller “resistance groups” in Gaza) to agree to a new “cease-fire”. This one will not be time limited, and will be conditioned on absolute “quiet for quiet”.

   According to the Egyptian proposal there will be immediate relief for the people in Gaza in the form of open crossing points for increased shipment of food, water, goods, medicines, etc.

In addition (and Israel has reportedly agreed), money will be transferred from the Palestinian Authority to pay salaries, the fishing area will be extended and Egypt will open the Rafah crossing under the supervision of Abu Mazen’s forces. Both Israel and Egypt will provide extra electricity and water.

   Most important for both Hamas and Islamic Jihad – under very tight Israeli, Egyptian and international supervision, Egypt and Israel will allow in construction materials, to rebuild the devastated residential and commercial areas.

   Within one month, and assuming the cease-fire is holding, the indirect negotiations over a permanent, lasting truce will resume in Cairo. With humanitarian conditions in Gaza deteriorating, all sides have agreed to leave the “heavier” issues: airport; seaport; demilitarization, governance of Gaza, etc.

   It is now 1:30 CST on Tuesday August 26. As of this writing, the open-ended cease-fire has been holding for 2 hours and fifteen minutes.

   But as several Israeli commentators said over the past few hours – “we’ve already seen this movie”.

   Hamas will not change, and will remain identical to ISIS. Qatar will remain dedicated to supporting terrorists who are committed to destroying Israel and killing Jews. This is a time for licking wounds, and unfortunately, preparing for the next round of the ongoing war that started in 1947 – The Israeli War of Independence.

Operation Protective Edge: Day 45

As of this writing, over 350 rockets and mortar shells have been launched towards Israel since Monday. Israel has attacked over 100 targets in Gaza, including the successful targeting of the three most senior terrorist commanders in Hamas after Mohammed Deif – the legendary commander of their military forces who has survived five Israeli targeted assassinations.

The house Deif was living in with his family was also attacked and destroyed, though as of this writing it’s not clear if he was killed.  

But this is certainly not the way this week started.

At the beginning of this week the Israeli and Palestinian delegations negotiating in Cairo indicated that within hours they would be signing an interim agreement that would enable a long extension of the Egyptian brokered cease fire, on a “quiet for quiet” basis. This would give the negotiators time to finalize a framework of understandings that will serve as a foundation for extensive negotiations over a permanent truce arrangement.

   To “sweeten the pot” for Hamas, Israel and Egypt agreed to give in to some of their “demands”:

   

1.  The fishing limits would be extended from 6 miles to 12 miles incrementally.
2.  A survey and study for building a port would be commissioned to commence as soon as the security situation allowed.
3. Egypt would open the Rafah crossing for longer hours; though instead of Hamas the crossing would be manned on the Gaza side by members of the elite Palestinian presidential guard.
4. Israel would issue a larger number of permits for Palestinians to enter Israel for humanitarian needs from Gaza through the Erez crossing.
5.  Israel would double the number of food, medicine and supplies semi-trailers entering Gaza through the Kerem Shalom crossing, from the current 300 to 600 a week.
6. Construction material would be allowed into Gaza under strict international supervision.
7.  Israel and Egypt would increase the electricity and water supplies to Gaza.
8. The Israeli-Palestinian Liaison office would reopen.

  

But all this was contingent on an extension of the cease-fire and absolute adherence to the “quiet for quiet” principle.

   On Monday morning both sides expressed optimism and relief that this Egyptian proposed interim deal would be signed on Tuesday morning. Even Hamas top leader Haled Mashaal who lives in luxury in Qatar as the guest of The Qatari ruler, Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, agreed to the interim deal.

  

   But as the midnight hour approached on Monday, both sides gave contradictory statements about the progress of the talks. Egypt suggested another 24 hour cease-fire extension.   

  

   Israel agreed – but Hamas suddenly announced that unless it got everything what it wanted, rocket fire would renew at the stroke of midnight. Prime Minister Netanyahu said that if it did, Israel’s reactions would become incrementally harsher.

   Hamas insisted that “unless Netanyahu capitulates” to its demands regarding a seaport, airport, ending the Israeli/Egyptian Blockade, freeing prisoners, ending “targeted assassinations” etc., it may conduct a “war of attrition” – a few rockets a day to different areas of Israel - just enough to disrupt life, and maybe score more public relations points if Israel’s response caused civilian deaths.. The IDF’s response: “Attrition” (Hatasha in Hebrew) will be answered with “pulverization” (Haktasha).

At first it seemed that someone in Hamas did not get, or did not want to get the message. Three hours before Monday’s midnight cease-fire deadline five rockets were launched towards Beer Sheva and Netivot. Israel responded with accurate fire towards the launch sites. Four more rockets and several mortar shells were fired towards Israeli communities in the Western Negev area. Iron dome intercepted two rockets above the city of Netivot; the others fell in open areas.

   Despite energetic Egyptian efforts to renew the cease-fire for another 24 hours, claiming that the sides were “very close” and an agreement – both Israel and Hamas announced that the cease-fire was dead and the Cairo talks had failed.

  

   What suddenly happened???

   According to several reliable reports from Israel, Egypt and the Palestinian negotiators, the Qatari leader, the main supporter of Hamas and Islamic Jihad  (and more recently ISIS…), contacted Haled Mashaal on Monday, threatening that he would withdraw all financial support from Hamas and kick Mashaal out of the country if he signed any agreement with Israel.

  So as of right now, Friday afternoon at 3:30, Operation Protective edge is continuing. Rockets are being launched against Israel, and the IDF is responding. A few hours ago a beautiful, smiling four year old boy, Daniel Turgeman was killed when, upon hearing the sirens, his parents rushed to get him and his siblings out of their car to a secure area. Fifteen seconds were not enough. As they reached in to get Daniel, the last one out, a mortar shell hit.

At the moment, it looks that this war will continue until Israel completes the job, difficult and painful as it may be, of ensuring peace, quiet and security for its citizens.

Shabbat shalom,

Gil Elan

Operation Protective Edge: DAY 42

The five day cease-fire Egypt brokered last week, the longest to date, ended on Monday, August 18^th. During that time the indirect negotiations in Cairo continued, with Egypt presenting a compromise proposal that would essentially extend the temporary cease-fire indefinitely, on a basis of “quiet for quiet”, while the sides continued to finalize an agreed framework of understandings that will serve as a foundation for extensive negotiations over a long-term truce arrangement.
 

This cease-fire held for almost the full five days. But as the midnight hour approached on Monday, both sides gave conflicting statements about the progress of the talks. Egypt suggested another extension for 24 hours.

Hamas announced that unless it got what it wanted, rocket fire would renew at the stroke of midnight. Prime Minister Netanyahu said that if it did, Israel’s reactions would become incrementally harsher. 

Hamas suggested that “unless Netanyahu capitulates” to its demands regarding a seaport, airport, ending the Israeli/Egyptian Blockade, freeing prisoners, ending “targeted assassinations” etc., it may conduct a “war of attrition” – a few rockets a day to different areas of Israel - just enough to disrupt life, and maybe score more public relations points if Israel’s response caused civilian deaths. The IDF’s response: “Attrition” (Hatasha in Hebrew) will be answered with “pulverization” (Haktasha).

It seems like someone in Hamas did not get, or did not want to get the message. Three hours before Monday’s midnight cease-fire deadline five rockets were launched towards Beer Sheva and Netivot. Israel responded with accurate fire towards the launch sites. Four more rockets and several mortar shells were fired towards Israeli communities in the Western Negev area. Iron Dome intercepted two rockets above the city of Netivot; the others fell in open areas. 

Despite energetic Egyptian efforts to renew the cease-fire for another 24 hours, claiming that the sides were “very close” and an agreement – Netanyahu immediately recalled the Israeli delegates, who were seen leaving the hotel. However according to my sources, as of this writing, (Monday, 1:00PM CST, 900PM Jerusalem/Cairo time), they have not yet left Cairo. 

Hamas is blaming Israel’s intransigence on the seaport issue (does that mean that everything else is resolved?), while Israel is blaming the rocket fire this evening, reaffirming the “no negotiations under fire” policy. 

Both these excuses are easily remedied:

1. Hamas can, if it wants to, stop all rocket fire from Gaza, regardless of the group firing. 
2. Israel has already agreed to include wording in the interim cease-fire document that essentially removes opposition to a future seaport.

What this tells me is that for some reason Hamas commanders in Gaza were ordered by their political leaders, who are hiding out in luxury in Qatar, to slow things down for a day or two until they figure out the ramifications of the Egyptian proposal which the two sides were reportedly about to sign in Cairo on Monday night or Tuesday morning. 

If that’s the case, then this is just a short delay before the quiet-for-quiet doctrine kicks in and the residents of Gaza get considerable help in rebuilding and developing an economy, with many less restrictions, an expanded fishing area, freer flow of goods and people to both Egypt and Israel, and an extended period of security and stability. 

If not – then Friday will be Day 45 of the war, and Saturday will be Day 46, and Israelis will continue to run for shelters at “red alert”, and Gaza’s civilians will continue to pay the price of their leaders’ reckless fanaticism and obsession with death, and the IDF will continue to defeat the enemy…unfortunately at an ever growing cost to the soldiers, who are defending their homes and their families.

Operation Protective Edge: The Cairo Negotiations

  Last week’s update ended on a ray of hope. An Egyptian brokered 72 hour cease fire was holding, and as a result the Israeli and Palestinian delegations to the Cairo “long-term arrangement” talks had started indirect meetings. That means that Egyptian negotiators, usually senior Intelligence officers fluent in Hebrew and Arabic, were shuttling between the two delegations with offers and counter offers. This is because Hamas refuses to talk directly to Israel, and though the Palestinian delegation was officially from Abu Mazen’s Fatah party, it included a senior Hamas official who had the authority to negotiate.

   But al-Sisi’s Egypt refuses to talk directly to Hamas, having outlawed it as a terrorist organization. So how were the negotiations conducted? Stay with me here, and read the next sentence slowly: The Israelis talked to the Egyptians, who then talked to the Fatah members of the Palestinian delegation, who then talked to the Hamas representative who, after calling Hamas leader Haled Mashaal in his fancy hotel in Qatar, responded to the Fatah guy, who relayed the message to the Egyptians, who passed it on to the Israelis, who after speaking to Jerusalem went back to the Egyptians... Welcome to Middle East negotiations.

   Remember – these talks are over terms for negotiating a mutually accepted long-term truce arrangement, with international guarantees, that would insure quiet for Israel (no rockets, mortars, terror attacks through tunnels or other means) from Gaza, while giving the Palestinians in Gaza the ability to rebuild (not tunnels!!), develop a thriving economy and live normal, peaceful lives.

   But the talks were conditioned on maintaining and extending the absolute cease-fire.

Unfortunately, the 72 hour cease-fire was broken last Friday by Hamas launching rockets into Israel just two hours before it was to be extended. The Israeli delegation returned home. Over the weekend Hamas continued to fire rockets and Israel responded with air, tank and artillery fire.

    The Egyptians succeeded in calling for another 72 hour truce, starting Sunday at midnight (Cairo/Jerusalem time) and ending Wednesday at midnight.

   After 5 hours of quiet, the Israelis returned to Cairo on Monday and the talks resumed…but in a different and somewhat better format. The Egyptians are watching from the side. The Israelis and Palestinians (Fatah only!) were meeting face to face. The lead Fatah negotiator then went from time to time to speak to the Hamas guy who is on a different floor, and then relays his reply to the Israelis.

   As of this writing, the negotiations have been extended by five days. Both sides say that the talks are difficult, but that small progress is being made.

  Israeli news media is reported that there seems to be some agreement on the following issues:

1.    That the cease-fire will be extended as long as the quiet was maintained to enable the talks to continue.

2.    Hamas will not get an airport.

3.    As for a sea port – there will be wording in the agreement that an international company will be authorized to start developing plans for a port, and eventually build it, subject to the security and political situation. In other words – 5-6 years down the road.

4.    There will be no “safe passage” road from Gaza to the West Bank as Hamas had demanded.

5.    Israel will double the weekly amount of supply trucks into Gaza from 250 to 600 a week.

6.    Israel will allow transfer of money from the Palestinian Authority to Hamas to pay salaries.

7.    Israel will allow construction materials, including cement in under strict international (not UN!) supervision.

8.    Israel will increase the number of permits into Israel for Gaza residents.

9.    Egypt will open Rafah crossing 24/7 but it will be controlled on the Gaza side by Abu Mazen’s Fatah presidential security forces, not Hamas.

10.  As a gesture to Abu Mazen, Israel will release the fourth group of prisoners promised during the stalled Israel-Palestinian peace talks.

11.  Israel will not release the 50 Hamas prisoners from the Shalit exchange deal that were recaptured in the West Bank during the search for the three kidnapped and murdered Israelis.

12.  Providing there are no attacks, the issue of demilitarization of Gaza will be deferred at this time.

But – all this is possible only if the current cease fire is extended and the talks continue in Cairo.

Most Israeli commentators, when asked what the chances are of the current cease fire being extended and a long-term truce arrangement being signed, set them at a cautious 50-50.

   I would give it much less of a chance. I don’t think that this war is over, and neither does the IDF which is still in full combat formation, rested, and prepared to deal with any situation, on several fronts.   

Operation Protective Edge: Day 29: Israel pulls out

     What a difference a week makes! Just seven days ago this column discussed the difficulties in finding a mutually accepted broker to try to negotiate a temporary cease fire between Israel and Hamas.
      On Monday night, August 4th, Israel and a noticeably crushed Hamas agreed to an Egyptian brokered 72 hour cease-fire starting Tuesday morning at 8:00AM Israel time. According to the agreement, as long as the cease fire holds Israel will send a delegation to Cairo for the talks on a permanent arrangement.
      As of this writing, Tuesday, August 5th at 3:00PM Dallas time the ceasefire has been holding for 15 hours. The IDF, having completed the mission of destroying a total of 32 cross border attack tunnels, has fully withdrawn all ground forces from Gaza, redeploying them along the border in a way that they can swiftly react, with full force, to any attack from within the strip, or from a hitherto undetected tunnel. The Air Force and artillery units are ready to destroy the location of any rocket launch. So far there have been none.
     Assuming that the cease fire holds, there is good reason to believe that it will be extended. That means that the focus now turns to the Egyptian brokered talks in Cairo over a long-term arrangement that will enable both sides to have an extended period of security and quiet.

     Despite the empty claims of victory by Hamas leaders today ("We won," said Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, from his fancy hotel room in Qatar, "The image of destruction seen by the world is the proof to the extent of the IDF's defeat and its failure”), Hamas is currently in a much worse situation than it was before it started the war: 

• It has no operational success:
  • After firing over 2,000 rockets and mortars at Israel, there  were no collapsed buildings or mass deaths or injuries. 
  • Several attempts at “quality” terrorist attacks through the tunnels were thwarted. 
  • Several attempts to kidnap Soldiers or civilians failed. 
  • Over 900 Hamas militants, including senior commanders were killed.

• It has lost its two flagship military programs after spending years and hundreds of millions of dollars developing: The rocket launching capability and the tunnels.
• The civilians in Gaza – and many in the Arab world, are now blaming Hamas leaders for the terrible loss of life, property and infrastructure that their actions caused, while they, their families and wealth were hiding out in luxury in Qatar.
• It claims that it has no money to pay government (and terrorist) salaries, let alone rebuild Gaza.
• It has been denounced by almost every Arab and Moslem leader – except Turkey and Qatar.

     So while Hamas is limping to the Cairo talks, Israel is coming from a strong position, with the support of key Arab States: Egypt (which has already told Hamas that it can forget about its demands for an airport and seaport as part of the “arrangement”), Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the Emirates, Morocco and more.

     Israel is coming to the Cairo talks with one main demand and one promise. 

1. The demand: Demilitarizing Hamas or any regime in Gaza from weapons and means (rockets, mortars, tunnels) that threaten Israel.
2. The promise – quiet will be met with quiet. And down the road – Requests for help in peaceful economic development, including high-tech and tourism, for the benefit of the Palestinian people in Gaza will be met with open arms and an open heart. 

     By the time you read this either the cease-fire, together with the Cairo talks, will have been extended, which is a good sign, or operation Protective Edge will, unfortunately, be in Day 31…and counting.

       The IDF Chief of Staff, General Benny Gantz, said today that with the unilateral redeployment from Gaza, Israel has adopted a strict “Zero Tolerance” policy on terrorism from Gaza. That means that regardless of what happens in Cairo; from now on any rocket, mortar or other attack will be answered with accurate, lesson-teaching, overwhelming and unambiguous force.

      Now that’s getting back Israel’s deterrence.

Breaking News Bulletin

Cease-Fire Collapses, IDF Officer Missing

On July 31, Secretary of State John Kerry and UN Secretary Ban Ki Moon announced that Israel and Hamas had agreed to a 72 hour humanitarian cease fire would come into effect at 8 AM local time today, though the IDF ground forces would continue to quietly uncover tunnels between Gaza and Israel.

According to the Egyptian brokered agreement, during this humanitarian cease fire, delegations from Israel, the Palestinian Authority (including Hamas) The US and Egypt were to meet in Cairo for indirect negotiations to try to work out the details of a longer cease fire.

Within 90 minutes though, Hamas and the other Gaza terrorist factions broke the ceasefire agreement and renewed rocket fire at Israel. As this continued, the IDF resumed attacks on Hamas military targets. The cease fire collapsed, and the Cairo meetings were postponed.

At 9:30 AM, An IDF unit was checking a tunnel in the Southern Gaza city of Rafah, near the Egyptian border. A suicide bomber who was hiding in the tunnel with other terrorists blew himself up, killing 2 soldiers, including an officer, and injuring several more. The other terrorists then opened fire on the soldiers, and in the following heavy firefight, apparently succeeded in dragging 23 year old second lieutenant Hadar Goldin, who may have been injured or killed, into the tunnel.

Aware of the huge value of an IDF hostage to Hamas, Israel immediately implemented the “Hannibal Protocol” – a standing order to take every action necessary, no matter how extreme, to prevent a terrorist organization from holding a live Israeli soldier hostage. Not knowing if Goldin was alive, injured or dead, massive fire power was immediately focused on the tunnel entrance, while air and artillery strikes levelled every building nearby.

As the IDF poured more troops in to try to find Goldin and his captors, large scale clashes erupted with Hamas gunmen.

As of this writing (2:00PM CST): 

1. There is no news on the fate of Lt. Goldin. 
   
2. The operation and clashes between Hamas and the IDF in Rafah are continuing. 
   
3. The IDF has just instructed all residents of Rafah to stay indoors until further notice.
4. The Hamas ministry of health is reporting 65 dead and more than 350 injured in Rafah.
5. There has been non-stop rocket and mortar fire from Gaza towards Israel since 9:30 this morning (90 minutes after the cease-fire started…). Many mortars and rockets fell in Gaza, causing casualties and damage.
6. The IDF is calling up more reservists.

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