Cease Fire - Middle East Style

In the Middle East, very few things are simple or straightforward. Arranging even a temporary cease fire in the Gaza war between Israel on one side, and Hamas and Islamic Jihad on the other side, is a case in point.
 

Here is why it’s so difficult.

First: Each side’s “carved in stone” demands (remember – this is for just a temporary cease fire, not a final agreement).

Israel:

1. All organizations must halt all rocket and mortar fire.   
2.  No terrorist attacks through tunnels.   
3. Israeli ground troops continue to search for, and destroy remaining attack tunnels between Gaza and Israel, Will use force only in self-defense, if attacked

Hamas:

1. Withdrawal of all IDF units from Gaza 
2. Halt IDF air and artillery strikes 
3. Open Rafah crossing point to Egypt, allow free movement of Gazans 
4. Open all commercial crossing points to Israel 24/7
5. Immediately enable transfer of cement and construction materials.
6. International guarantees of all above, plus – that the IDF will not target leaders.

Second: The $64K question: Who is the broker?

Traditionally, cease-fires and peace treaties in the Middle East are negotiated by a mutually agreed and respected broker. Temporary or permanent agreements are reached by the broker (or his staff) painstakingly shuttling between the adversaries with suggestions, demands, drafts, amendments, etc. until an agreement is reached. 

Once the broker has signed off on all details of the agreement, the parties get together for a “Sulha” ceremony and the deal is confirmed.

The questions of who will broker a cease-fire, and whose “plan” will be on the table, have now become international issues of high contention.

 

Here are the players besides Israel:

U.S. – Israel’s traditional ally and almost exclusive supplier of arms and munitions, as well as international and political support. 

Egypt – At peace with Israel, excellent communications and cooperation between both militaries and political leaders. Strongest military in the Arab World. Uneasy relations with USA administration since outlawing the Muslim Brotherhood and arresting its senior leaders, including past president Mohamed Morsi and Supreme Guide Mohamed Badai. 

Jordan – At peace with Israel. Currently concerned that it’s growing Hamas terrorist groups will link up with the Islamic State (ISIS) that is already threatening the kingdom.

Qatar – Tiny (4,467 sq. miles) oil and gas rich (GDP: $215 billion – richest country in the world per capita) Sunni Arab country. Adheres to Muslim Brotherhood doctrine. Biggest supporter of Hamas, whose senior leaders live there in luxury and protection. Home of Al Jazeera, which in its Arabic and worldwide broadcasts is rabidly anti-Israel. Also home of the biggest US military base in the Middle East. 

Turkey – Once a good friend and ally of Israel (The first Moslem country to recognize and establish diplomatic relations with Israel in 1949, things went downhill with the current pro-Muslim Brotherhood, pro-Hamas Islamist government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan. His recent statements comparing Netanyahu to Hitler and the IDF to Nazis has eliminated him as a possible broker.

  So here’s the “broker” update.

 Last week Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the Emirates and presented a plan (“the Egyptian plan”) that Israel agreed to and would include disarming Hamas of rockets and destroying the tunnels, while both sides held fire for a designated period and negotiated a final agreement with a broker yet to be chosen... At first it looked like the US also agreed, until Secretary of State Kerry met with the foreign ministers of Qatar and Turkey, and essentially rejected the Egyptian plan and seemed to embrace the Qatari-Turkish plan, which reads like it was written by Haled Mashal – the Hamas leader.

The US then came out with a similar “plan” demanding an immediate Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and a cessation of air and ground strikes, with no guarantee of a halt in the rocket barrage on Israel.

Oh – and the question of demilitarization of Gaza including removing all the rockets and mortars and tunnels will be left for discussion and resolution during the final Israel-Palestine peace talks. The word “delusionary” came up frequently as analysts tried to understand this new American position.

But the most jaw-dropping suggestion from the Secretary of State was that the American position, “after careful consideration and consultation”, is that the best cease-fire, and long term arrangement brokers, would be…Qatar and Turkey – two Muslim Brotherhood countries!

 If that’s true, and that happens, then Israel may need to start looking for a new ally. Because to quote the State Department Spokesperson herself this week: “That’s not the way to treat a friend”