Two skirmishes they didn’t report

   Because of the media focus on the disappearance of the Malaysian airliner, the referendum in Crimea, the weather in Texas and “March Madness”, it is no surprise that two major events in the Middle East over the past week received hardly a passing mention in the news.

   For the benefit of our readers, here is a summary and analysis of these events.
Gaza – Last Tuesday (3/11) an IDF patrol was fired upon from the Gaza Strip. The soldiers returned fire, killing three Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) terrorists. Over the next two days over 70 rockets and mortars were launched against Israel by the PIJ. Israel responded with a combination of tank, artillery and air strikes against PIJ and Hamas positions, weapon stores and communications facilities throughout the Strip. 
    Following Egyptian mediation, a tentative calm was restored on the basis of “quiet for quiet” with two clear understandings:  1) that any attack against Israel, no matter how small, will be answered with massive, destructive and disproportionate force. 2) Hamas will be held responsible and will be targeted, too.
Lebanon – Last Friday (3/14) an IED (Improvised Explosive Device) was deployed against an IDF jeep patrolling the Lebanese border near Mt. Hermon. The jeep was damaged though there were no injuries to the soldiers. The IDF fired a barrage of tank and artillery rounds against Hezbollah positions and outposts both near the area of the incident and deeper in Lebanon. A senior military official said "Hezbollah was involved and Hezbollah will be hurt."
   In both Gaza and Lebanon, the attacks were perpetuated by Iranian proxy terrorist groups. There is no question that the timing and targeting was initiated by Iran in response to two recent perceived national “insults”: 

1. An air strike in Lebanon on Feb 24 that destroyed an Iranian missile convoy on its way to Hezbollah.
2. The Israeli seizing of the Iranian rocket and ammunition carrying ship Klos C in the Red Sea on March 5, which was on its way to supply the PIJ and Hamas in Gaza. 

Analysis: Both shipments were not intended to support either Hamas or Hezbollah. 
   The large quantity of medium range rockets and missiles were earmarked by Iran to be deployed to either deter Israel from attacking Iran’s nuclear weapons facilities, or to be used to try to “punish” Israel in retaliation to an Israeli (or Israeli and American) strike.
   This teaches us that Iran has absolutely no plan to dismantle or cut back on its nuclear weapons development program. They say as much openly…and with a smile. 
   The P5+1 powers, and especially the US, are desperate for a “framework agreement” that would somehow show that the Iranians are serious in the current round of talks. Iran however has no intention of coming to such a deal.  And while they are not sure about US intentions, they are absolutely convinced that Israel will stand by her “red line” commitment not to let them reach nuclear weapon “break-out” stage. Hence the urgency to deploy medium and long range rockets along Israel’s borders.
   While Israel’s preemptive actions certainly delivered a blow to Iran’s plans and ego, nobody in the intelligence communities believes for a moment that the IRGC, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp, under orders of the Grand Ayatollah, is not already scheming to get other rockets and missiles into Lebanon and Gaza. I am confident that Israel is already several steps ahead of them. 
   But they will try. Iran’s leaders know that while America has the power, only Israel has the determination and ability to stop them from going nuclear.
    Agree or disagree, that’s my opinion.