Friday, June 20, 2014

Back to the Jihadist Future

We’ve seen this movie before. Around 622 CE, a small army of newly converted Arab Muslims, religiously zealous and fiercely loyal to their charismatic prophet Mohammed, rode out of the Arabian peninsula to spread Islam – the new and latest version of the “one universal truth” first given to the Jews (the Torah) and later the Christians (the New Testament).
   Following Mohammed’s death in in 632 his followers and their successive leaders, the Caliphs, continued the conquest until by 750 the Islamic Caliphate spread from Spain to Afghanistan, and included all of North Africa and most of today’s Middle East. The last caliph of Islam, Abdulmecid II, was deposed on March 3, 1924 by the Turkish Grand National Assembly, when they abolished institution of Caliphate.
   How did an initially small force of Bedouins succeed in capturing and holding such vast regions of populated land for over 1,000 years? Basically there was no one to stop them. Attacking the periphery of the weak and strife ridden Byzantine Empire, they presented the various and diverse populations they encountered with a godfather-like “offer they can’t refuse”: Either convert to Islam and join us…or die. It was a no-brainer. The size of the Islamic forces, together with their treasury, grew exponentially with each conquest.       
   It’s important to note that there were few, if any, sovereign states or countries during the period of Muslim domination. That’s because Islam is perceived to be both a religion and a political body. If you are a Muslim then you are a member of the “Umma”, the worldwide, borderless Muslim nation/state. The Umma can only be ruled by a “Caliph” (“successor” to Mohammed). 
   So when the Jihadists of today, led by the ISIS – The Islamic State in Iraq and the Shams (Levant) claim that their goal is to re-establish the “Caliphate” they have a specific plan: First: to carve out a large territory in the Middle East under complete Islamic ultra-religious control. Second: install a Caliph who will be acceptable to most of the “Ulama” – the worldwide collective of ordained Muslim spiritual leaders. Third: expand the Caliphate to neighboring countries, starting with North Africa and Spain.
   This brings us to what is happening today in Iraq and Syria. The comparison and parallels to the seventh century are clear, though with one major difference – unlike the somewhat ragtag Muslim forces that followed Mohammed and the early Caliphs, the ISIS is a formidable, well-disciplined, well trained and very well equipped battle-hardened and ever-growing military powerhouse. Following recent defections into its ranks of whole Sunni combat units, including officers, from the Syrian and Iraqi armies, it is now the biggest Jihadist terrorist group in the world. It is also the richest, having just “appropriated” some 500 million dollars in cash from the central bank in Mosul in addition to receiving large donations from rich Sunni supporters worldwide.
   As Jonathan Spyer wrote on June 12 in the Jerusalem Post:
“The key point is that the "Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham" is no longer the name of a movement, or the expression of an aspiration. As of now, it is a descriptive term applying to a de facto sovereign space, taking in a large swath of western Iraq and eastern and northern Syria.
The Syrian civil war long ago burst its borders, to become a sectarian conflict taking in the territory of Syria, Iraq and Lebanon. ISIS's tactical offensive has cast this fact into bold relief.”
   Spyer continues: “ISIS is the most brutal and best-organized of the jihadi elements that have emerged in Iraq and Syria over the last decade. It now controls a contiguous area of territory stretching from deep into western Iraq and including the cities of Mosul and Fallujah, across the border into Syria, and continuing until the border with Turkey. The movement has a presence as far as the southern suburbs of Baghdad.”
   Background: The group was founded in 2003 as Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) in reaction to the American-led invasion and occupation of Iraq. Its founder, the Jordanian militant Abu Musab al-Zarqawi declared allegiance to Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda network in 2004. 
   In September 2005 al-Zarqawi, declared war on Shia Muslims. The group uses bombings, massacres and executions in terrorist attacks against Shia-dominated or mixed neighborhoods 
   Renamed ISIS in 2006, its popularity grew from its continued opposition to the presence of U.S. forces, and more recently the persecution and marginalization of the Sunnis in Iraq by the US supported Shi'ite administration of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki. 
   Interesting note: because of its sheer brutality, including mass public executions without trial, and arrests and torture of anyone perceived to oppose its ideology, even al-Qaeda leader Ayman Al Zawahiri decided that ISIS is far too extreme and expelled the organization from al-Qaeda.
   Like Spyer is quoted above, the ISIS is no longer just a movement or terrorist group. It is a “de facto sovereign state”, living under the strictest Sharia laws, and growing exponentially in size and strength as its forces continue to march towards Bagdad (and beyond?). Absorbing whole army units along the way, armed with over $4 billion worth of the best American weapons supplied to Iraq in recent years, and a war-chest that, as one pundit noted, “could buy a hell of a lot of Jihad”, the ISIS seems unstoppable. 
   Israel is certainly preparing. Just the name Islamic State in Iraq and the Shams says it clearly. In Arabic, “The Shams”, which translates to “the Levant”, is a phrase that historically designates the area that today includes: Syria, Lebanon, South Turkey, Iraq, Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Sinai and most of the Gulf States.
   As I said above: we’ve seen this movie before…and were not too crazy about the ending. This sequel, which has morphed into a horror flick, does not look like it will have a “Hollywood ending” either.   
   Agree or disagree, that’s my opinion. 

DISCLAIMER: Opinions expressed above the writer’s, and do not represent SWJC directors, officers or members

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