Israel's Security Status in 2014

   On Monday, November 25th, Israel’s top intelligence officials met with members of Netanyahu’s exclusive inner cabinet for a secret briefing at a secure Mossad facility in central Israel. The ministers were presented with an evaluation of various possible developments in the world and the Middle East in 2014 that could have a direct impact on the security of Israel and Israelis.

   Though the details of secret briefings cannot be divulged, knowledgeable sources in Israel reported that the ministers left the briefing with a look of contentment. Apparently the threat assessment for 2014 was for the most part pretty optimistic. 
   It seems that in 2014, despite the overall turmoil in the Middle East, the chance of a major ground war using large armor and infantry formations, between Israel and one or more of the countries in the region, is very low to nil. 
   With Israel at peace with Egypt and Jordan, Syria fighting a bloody civil war and Iraq falling apart, there simply is no country, or potential coalition of countries, that has the military ability, motivation or political will to mount a serious ground campaign against Israel.
   However an air war, with missiles, rockets and aircraft is distinctly possible in 2014, though not very probable. Let’s look at the regional players.

• Syria: Even though Syria possesses thousands of rockets and missiles that can cause devastating damage and casualties to Israel, both the regime and the rebels are too embroiled in a harsh civil war. The last thing either side wants, at least until the dust settles, is to open a front against Israel.
• Hezbollah. Despite having over 100,000 long, medium and short range rockets aimed at Israel, Nasrallah’s status in Lebanon is growing precarious by the day. Heavy troop losses fighting for the Assad regime in Syria, and the inability to provide security at home, have tarnished Hezbollah’s image greatly. Knowing how disproportionately destructive an Israeli retaliation would be to rocket fire from Lebanon, Hezbollah leadership currently prefers to avoid a conflict.
• Hamas (Gaza): Same as Hezbollah. Rapidly losing popularity due to an inability to govern and provide basic services to the population, the Hamas leadership simply can’t afford to be blamed for even more misery after an Israeli retaliation. 

    So according to most analysts, barring an unforeseen circumstance there is very little chance of a full blown war in 2014 on the scope of the 1973 Yom Kippur War, or the 1967 Six Day War.
   That was probably the “good” part of the evaluation briefing.
   The more ominous part may have dealt with the growing security threats posed by various Sunni terrorist groups and their fanatical, religious obsession with the very existence of Israel. While there have been anti-Israel terrorist groups from as far back as the Fedayeen in the 1950s, this latest crop are more numerous, more sophisticated, better trained, better armed and highly motivated.
   Their Muslim Brotherhood inspired goal, be “they” Al Qaeda, Hamas, Taliban, Jabhat al Nusra, Islamic Jihad or any one of the alphabet-soup Jihadi Islamist groups, is simple and frightening: First, establish Sharia law in all countries with a Muslim population, second, reestablish the Caliphate in Sinai, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Syria and the whole Middle East. Third, expand worldwide.  Israel is obviously in the way.
   I would be surprised if the briefing did not include the increase in the number of Jihadists in Sinai, and how Egypt is fighting them. It may have also covered the threat to Israelis (though not to the State of Israel) by the growing presence in Jordan and Syria of elements of Hamas and Al-Qaeda affiliates – all highly trained, combat experienced and armed with large quantities of weapons looted from Libya.    
      Iran is a whole different issue. I can’t imagine that the intelligence heads did not remind the cabinet ministers of the fact that Iran is already a “breakout” nuclear state, and that thanks to the unfortunate “Geneva Agreement” a few weeks ago, will remain so in the foreseeable future.
   So without having been a fly on the wall at that secret intelligence evaluation briefing, I would guess that the smiles on the minister’s faces as they left the facility meant that Israel’s security status for 2014 is good. There is no major ground war on the horizon, terrorism is being dealt with…and based on Netanyahu’s speech at the Saban Forum last weekend – we won’t have to worry much longer about Iran’s nuclear break-out capability...   
   Agree or disagree, that’s my opinion.