The kidnapped Teenagers and the upcoming Gaza war

As of this writing, Monday, June 23, The IDF and Israeli security services are still searching for the three teenagers that were kidnapped a week ago from a junction near their school in the West Bank.

   Here’s what we know at this time.

·         Thursday, June 12, 10:00pm: Gilad Shaaer, 16, and Naftali Frenkel, 16, left their school on their way to their homes for the weekend. They probably walked the short distance to the nearest main road.

·         A few minutes later they arrived at nearby Gush Etzion Junction, on the main road between Jerusalem and Hebron, where the met up with Eyal Yifrach, 19.

·         10:15pm - The three were seen together at the junction.

·         There has been no sign of them since.

·         It is believed that they hitched a ride together following the cardinal rules of hitchhiking in the West Bank:

o   Only a car with Israeli license plates

o   Speak to the driver to confirm that he/she is Israeli

o   Never enter a car if there is anyone, male or female, in the back seat.

o   Never hitchhike alone.

·         At 10:25pm a call came in to the emergency police line in which a voice whispered “we’ve been kidnapped”.

·         A young soldier, serving her national service with the police, took the call and asked her commanding officer to listen to it.  He thought it was a prank and told her to ignore it. Had he followed protocol, he would, with the press of one button, activated a system called Compass. Compass identifies the owner of a telephone, and gives police access to a caller's list of contacts, enabling them to contact family or friends to determine if the emergency is legitimate.

·         A police spokesman claimed that those who received the call didn't understand what was whispered over the line. The officer also stressed however, that this was no excuse for Compass not being activated.

·         "At least they could have checked with the family of the owner of the phone if everything was ok," said the officer.

·         At 3:00am the father of one of the boys called the police to report him missing.

·         Around the same time a call came in about a car on fire in Hebron

·         The police now connected the dots and informed the IDF and GSS (Shin Bet).

·         Based on intelligence data, the Israelis zeroed in on elements in Hamas in the Hebron area that opposed the agreement with Fatah on a unified government.

·         Over 2,000 IDF combat soldiers and elite police officers started combing the city of Hebron and its surrounding hills. A difficult mission considering that there are thousands of active and abandoned wells in the area, as well as hundreds of natural and man-made caves and tunnels.

·         Searching house to house with special equipment, the IDF discovered a network of previously unknown tunnels that led from various houses to large underground spaces.

·         They also arrested over 250 active members of Hamas, including several that had been released in exchange for Gilad Shalit.

·         A top Israeli security official said that Saleh al-Arouri, the founder of Hamas’s armed wing in the West Bank, was a key figure behind the abductions.  Earlier this year Israeli military officials attributed an uptick in Hamas-driven violence in the West Bank to Arouri, who is based in Turkey and has in recent years reportedly taken “sole control” of efforts to rebuild Hamas’s terror infrastructure in the West Bank.

   As of this writing, despite extensive searches of the West Bank by massive numbers of IDF troops and police, as well as intensive intelligence work, there has been no sign of the teenagers or their captors.

   Israel has three clear objectives in “Operation Brother’s Keeper”:

1.    Bring the three Israeli teenagers home, hopefully alive and well.

2.    Systematically destroy Hamas’s political and terrorism infrastructure in the West Bank.

3.    Force Abu Mazen to cancel the unification agreement with Hamas and disband the “unity government”.

  Gaza: In the meantime, in order to possibly ease the Israeli pressure on their leaders in the West Bank, over the past two weeks Hamas has allowed terrorist groups in Gaza to resume firing rockets and mortars into Israel.  Israel has reacted each time with air strikes, directly at the launchers.

   However, knowledgeable sources have claimed in the past few days that a large-scale air and ground assault on all terrorist assets in the Gaza strip, especially those of Hamas, is almost inevitable for three reasons:

1.    The current round of rocket and mortar attacks on Israel

2.    Because of the loss of its infrastructure in the West Bank and deteriorating popularity in Gaza, Hamas will launch heavy rocket fire to compel Israel to transfer forces from the West Bank for a short (even if highly destructive) operation in Gaza. Hamas believes that this round will end like the previous two: with an Egyptian brokered, American and EU backed cease-fire that will strengthen Hamas and financially benefit the Gaza residents.

3.    To reestablish and strengthen Israel’s deterrence.

  To summarize: At this moment we are looking at a highly probable third Gaza war, caused by the current major Israeli military operations to dislodge Hamas in the West Bank, which was triggered by the kidnapping of three Israeli teens.   

Back to the Jihadist Future

We’ve seen this movie before. Around 622 CE, a small army of newly converted Arab Muslims, religiously zealous and fiercely loyal to their charismatic prophet Mohammed, rode out of the Arabian peninsula to spread Islam – the new and latest version of the “one universal truth” first given to the Jews (the Torah) and later the Christians (the New Testament).

   Following Mohammed’s death in in 632 his followers and their successive leaders, the Caliphs, continued the conquest until by 750 the Islamic Caliphate spread from Spain to Afghanistan, and included all of North Africa and most of today’s Middle East. The last caliph of Islam, Abdulmecid II, was deposed on March 3, 1924 by the Turkish Grand National Assembly, when they abolished institution of Caliphate.
   How did an initially small force of Bedouins succeed in capturing and holding such vast regions of populated land for over 1,000 years? Basically there was no one to stop them. Attacking the periphery of the weak and strife ridden Byzantine Empire, they presented the various and diverse populations they encountered with a godfather-like “offer they can’t refuse”: Either convert to Islam and join us…or die. It was a no-brainer. The size of the Islamic forces, together with their treasury, grew exponentially with each conquest.       
   It’s important to note that there were few, if any, sovereign states or countries during the period of Muslim domination. That’s because Islam is perceived to be both a religion and a political body. If you are a Muslim then you are a member of the “Umma”, the worldwide, borderless Muslim nation/state. The Umma can only be ruled by a “Caliph” (“successor” to Mohammed). 
   So when the Jihadists of today, led by the ISIS – The Islamic State in Iraq and the Shams (Levant) claim that their goal is to re-establish the “Caliphate” they have a specific plan: First: to carve out a large territory in the Middle East under complete Islamic ultra-religious control. Second: install a Caliph who will be acceptable to most of the “Ulama” – the worldwide collective of ordained Muslim spiritual leaders. Third: expand the Caliphate to neighboring countries, starting with North Africa and Spain.
   This brings us to what is happening today in Iraq and Syria. The comparison and parallels to the seventh century are clear, though with one major difference – unlike the somewhat ragtag Muslim forces that followed Mohammed and the early Caliphs, the ISIS is a formidable, well-disciplined, well trained and very well equipped battle-hardened and ever-growing military powerhouse. Following recent defections into its ranks of whole Sunni combat units, including officers, from the Syrian and Iraqi armies, it is now the biggest Jihadist terrorist group in the world. It is also the richest, having just “appropriated” some 500 million dollars in cash from the central bank in Mosul in addition to receiving large donations from rich Sunni supporters worldwide.
   As Jonathan Spyer wrote on June 12 in the Jerusalem Post:
“The key point is that the "Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham" is no longer the name of a movement, or the expression of an aspiration. As of now, it is a descriptive term applying to a de facto sovereign space, taking in a large swath of western Iraq and eastern and northern Syria.
The Syrian civil war long ago burst its borders, to become a sectarian conflict taking in the territory of Syria, Iraq and Lebanon. ISIS's tactical offensive has cast this fact into bold relief.”
   Spyer continues: “ISIS is the most brutal and best-organized of the jihadi elements that have emerged in Iraq and Syria over the last decade. It now controls a contiguous area of territory stretching from deep into western Iraq and including the cities of Mosul and Fallujah, across the border into Syria, and continuing until the border with Turkey. The movement has a presence as far as the southern suburbs of Baghdad.”
   Background: The group was founded in 2003 as Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) in reaction to the American-led invasion and occupation of Iraq. Its founder, the Jordanian militant Abu Musab al-Zarqawi declared allegiance to Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda network in 2004. 
   In September 2005 al-Zarqawi, declared war on Shia Muslims. The group uses bombings, massacres and executions in terrorist attacks against Shia-dominated or mixed neighborhoods 
   Renamed ISIS in 2006, its popularity grew from its continued opposition to the presence of U.S. forces, and more recently the persecution and marginalization of the Sunnis in Iraq by the US supported Shi'ite administration of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki. 
   Interesting note: because of its sheer brutality, including mass public executions without trial, and arrests and torture of anyone perceived to oppose its ideology, even al-Qaeda leader Ayman Al Zawahiri decided that ISIS is far too extreme and expelled the organization from al-Qaeda.
   Like Spyer is quoted above, the ISIS is no longer just a movement or terrorist group. It is a “de facto sovereign state”, living under the strictest Sharia laws, and growing exponentially in size and strength as its forces continue to march towards Bagdad (and beyond?). Absorbing whole army units along the way, armed with over $4 billion worth of the best American weapons supplied to Iraq in recent years, and a war-chest that, as one pundit noted, “could buy a hell of a lot of Jihad”, the ISIS seems unstoppable. 
   Israel is certainly preparing. Just the name Islamic State in Iraq and the Shams says it clearly. In Arabic, “The Shams”, which translates to “the Levant”, is a phrase that historically designates the area that today includes: Syria, Lebanon, South Turkey, Iraq, Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Sinai and most of the Gulf States.
   As I said above: we’ve seen this movie before…and were not too crazy about the ending. This sequel, which has morphed into a horror flick, does not look like it will have a “Hollywood ending” either.   
   Agree or disagree, that’s my opinion. 

DISCLAIMER: Opinions expressed above the writer’s, and do not represent SWJC directors, officers or members

Presidential politics – Israeli style

   If all went well in the Knesset vote on Tuesday, then by the time you read this column you will already know who has been elected as Israel’s tenth president. 

   If your reaction to the last sentence was “who cares?”, then you’re in good company. Most Israelis want to abolish this purely symbolic and totally powerless taxpayer funded position in favor of a strong, “Head of State” president, who appoints the cabinet, including the prime minister, based on political and/or coalition considerations.  
   So before it goes the way of the Dodo, let’s look at how this position was created, why it is powerless, how it’s filled, and some intriguing trivia about past presidents of Israel, the two world famous celebrities who turned the job down, and how, in 2007, an Israeli Arab was actually president of the Jewish State.
   Here is how the presidency evolved:
   From the establishment of the state of Israel in May 1948 until the elections and installation of the first Knesset in February 1949, Israel’s interim legislature and governing body was the self-appointed Provisional State Council whose chairman, first David Ben-Gurion and after him Chaim Weizmann, was the de-facto president of Israel.
   To say that Ben Gurion and Weizmann did not get along is an understatement. While both strove for decades in the Zionist movement to bring about the establishment of an independent Jewish state, they argued fiercely and publically about the ideology, methodology, tactics and even timetable of fulfilling the Zionist dream. 
   Though both were great Zionist leaders, it was a political given that while Ben Gurion would be the first Israeli prime minister, the ailing Weizmann would have to be given a position of prestige in the new state he was so instrumental in creating (including being personally responsible for getting the 1917 “Balfour Declaration”).
    According to most historians, Ben Gurion only agreed to give Weizmann the presidency if it was stripped of any power or authority that was not purely ceremonial. He then had the Provisional State Council draft and pass interim Basic Laws defining the establishment, functions and authorities of the Knesset, government, prime minister, cabinet and…the powerless president. Essentially the function of the president is to represent Israel at international events and ceremonies (every official trip must be authorized by the government), and represent the government domestically (state ceremonies, etc.).  It’s clear that Ben Gurion tailored the job to keep Weitzman busy with the fluff stuff, thus leaving him free to run the country. 
   So what does the Israeli president actually do?  As in most parliamentary democracies or monarchies, the president, as titular “Head of State”, under the recommendation of the Knesset or appropriate government ministers:

1. Signs every law except those that pertain to the President's powers (no veto rights)
2. Signs International or bilateral treaties approved by the Knesset
3. Endorses the credentials of Israeli ambassadors and receives the credentials of foreign diplomats
4. Ceremonially appoints the Governor of the Bank of Israel and the State Comptroller, as well as heads of other government agencies, upon recommendation of the Knesset House Committee.
5. Ceremonially appoints the prime minister after an election
6. Ceremonially appoints judges to courts, including the Supreme Court, after appointment by the Judicial Selection Committee
7. Has the power to pardon or commute the sentences of soldiers, civilians and terrorists (this controversial power is being tightened by the Knesset this week following the prisoner releases during the recent failed peace talks, and the US release of five senior Taliban commanders from Gitmo.

   Here are some interesting “presidential” anecdotes:

• Oldest ever in office: Shimon Peres, currently 90
• Youngest ever: Moshe Katsav, 54 when elected. Currently serving time for rape.
• When Chaim Weizmann died in 1952, Ben Gurion offered the position to Albert Einstein, who despite being a great Zionist and supporter of Israel, politely declined saying: “I have neither the natural ability nor the experience to deal with human beings.” 
• Weizmann’s, nephew, Ezer Weizmann was Israel’s 7th president
• No woman has ever been elected president by the Knesset, though…
• When the president is out of Israel or cannot function, the Speaker of the Knesset becomes acting president. So when Moshe Katsav took leave of absence on January 25, 2007 because of the police investigation, Dalia Itzik, as Speaker, became for six months Israel’s first female President. 
• She is one of the five candidates running to replace Peres this week. 
• An Arab president of Israel? Yup: When Itzik travelled to the US in February 2007, deputy speaker Majalli Wahabi assumed the position of President making him the first non-Jew and the first Arab to act, even if only briefly, as Israel's head of state.

   Now back to this week’s election. Here is the latest juicy story, hot from the press. It takes us back to the Ben Gurion – Weizmann feud.
   It seems that Bibi, reading the Knesset tea leaves last week, got so enraged that his arch-rival in the Likud party, former Knesset Speaker (and sometimes acting president) Ruby Rivlin was the clear front-runner in the presidential race, that Bibi decided to pull a last minute “Hail Mary” maneuver…he called Elie Wiesel in New York and despite the fact that Wiesel is not an Israeli citizen and has never lived in Israel…offered him the presidency. 
   Israeli journalist Nahum Barnea reported in Yediot Aharonot that Wiesel told him that Netanyahu telephoned him three times in New York and told him, “You will be the president of the State of Israel. It's all arranged. All you have to do is say yes”. When Wiesel said he would think about he received numerous high pressure calls from “mutual friends” trying to talk him into it. 
   Eventually Wiesel, 86, gave an answer similar to Einstein’s 62 years ago.  “The pressure was heavy, but I know how to withstand pressure…To be the president of Israel? Oh, come on. That's not for me. I write books. I’m not cut out for that.”
   What did Bibi do? He called Rivlin and said: “We have undergone many things in our lives, better days and days that were less so, and I hope that we will have better days. I waited to see the final list of the candidates, and as prime minister and chairman of the Likud I express my support for your candidacy.”
   Later that day Rivlin issued a short statement: “I thank the prime minister for his support for my candidacy for president of the State of Israel.”  
   So who is Israel’s tenth president? Does it really matter?  Nope. What matters is that in Israel everything is exciting – even a backwater Knesset vote for an inconsequential, maybe soon to disappear job…
     Agree or disagree, that’s my opinion.

DISCLAIMER: Opinions expressed above the writer’s, and do not represent SWJC directors, officers or members

The Islamist threat – connecting the dots

Last week three separate events, in different places around the world, illustrated that despite the current determined and relentless efforts by Egyptian president elect Al-Sissi to degrade the Muslim Brotherhood leadership in his country, the fanatic Islamist ideology and long term plans that the Brotherhood represents – a multi-continental Jihad with the goal of reestablishing an Islamic caliphate – are growing, strengthening and gathering new recruits on a worldwide basis.    

   These unrelated events took place in France, Guantanamo Bay and the Palestinian city of Ramallah.    
   France: On Sunday French authorities announced the arrest of Mehdi Nemmouche, a French citizen suspected in the shooting spree at the Jewish Museum in Brussels last week that left four dead, including an Israeli couple.  Nemmouche had recently returned to France from Syria where he became a member of the Al-Qaeda affiliated ISIS (Islamic State in Iraq and Syria). In Syria he acquired extensive combat skills and Islamist indoctrination, and was ordered to return to France to continue the Jihad.
   Following his interrogation, French security services arrested four men who are responsible for recruiting French citizens to join Islamist rebel groups in Syria, get training and indoctrination and then return to Europe with their French passports to conduct Jihadi terrorist and suicide attacks.
   And France is not the only country concerned. Though most of the estimated 6,000 – 8000 “foreign volunteers” fighting with the Jihadist rebels in Syria are from Arab countries – about 1,000 European, American, Canadian, Australian, South American and Asian citizens are currently fighting and training with the two main Jihadist rebel groups in Syria: ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra. A lot of these are 2nd or 3rd generation immigrants from Islamic countries. However, and this is most alarming, many are non-Muslims who were converted to Islam and radicalized while serving jail sentences...at home.
   Security services around the world are very concerned that Syria has become the new Afghanistan – breeding cadres of radicalized, highly trained “lone wolf” Jihadists who are programmed to act on the ideology of a worldwide Islamic caliphate, starting in their home countries. 
  And then there is Moner Mohammad Abusalha, an American from Florida and a student at Seminole State College who flew to Syria to join Jabhat al-Nusra. Last week, on May 25, wearing a suicide bomb vest he drove a truck packed with 16 tons of explosives into a restaurant that was popular with Syrian soldiers. The restaurant, together with buildings around it, was destroyed. They are still counting the dead, including Abusalha, who was nicknamed Al-Amriki, “The American”. 
   Guantanamo: The release of five very high level Taliban leaders in exchange for Sgt. Bowe Bergahl is understandable. Israel exchanged many more prisoners for Gilad Shalit, and has done so several times in the past. Bringing home a soldier, especially after five years in captivity, is a primary responsibility and duty of any country.
   But – This does not alter several unavoidable consequences:

1. That every terrorist group with prisoners being held by the US will now make every effort to abduct American soldiers, diplomats or civilians.
2. That the release will be used as a recruiting tool.
3. That the high-level prisoners just released will be motivated and able to provide fresh anti-American propaganda, based on their “experiences” (real or fabricated) in Gitmo to Jihadi trainers and motivators. This exacerbates the problem detailed above.

   Ramallah: On Sunday a mass rally was held in support of the agreement between Fatah and Hamas in what is considered to be a relatively secular, moderate city. It was anything but. Speaker after speaker praised the fact that now Hamas will be in control of the West Bank, too, and that like in Gaza Sharia law will prevail. The huge crowd cheered. The most prominent flags at the rally were the black flag of Al-Qaeda and the white flag of the caliphate.
   One of the highlights of the rally was when a popular radical Imam, in the middle of a rant about the revenge of Allah, suddenly raised a scabbard, drew a sword and waved it shouting that everyone should own one to kill all the Jews and non-believers who will be hiding behind the trees and rocks “as written in the Quran”.   
 In country after country in the Middle East, where strong, moderate and mostly pro-American dictators were toppled in a mistaken belief that democracy will solve all problems and herald a new, peaceful and just  world order, the sudden void created by the absence of local and major-power leadership is being filled by Islamist extremism, both Sunni and Shiite. 
   It will take more than just President Assisi’s noble efforts to actually minimize the threat from Sunni extremists, and no-one seems to have the stomach to confront the Iranians and their Shiite terrorism proxies.
   Assisi gets it, but he can’t do it alone. Unless the super powers get involved, the next ten, twenty or hundred “Al Amrikis” may be fulfilling their self-described destinations much closer to home.
  Agree or disagree, that’s my opinion.

DISCLAIMER: Opinions expressed above the writer’s, and do not represent SWJC directors, officers or members