Why the Peace Process is DOA

Let’s play make believe. Let’s hold an imaginary meeting of the Israeli, Palestinian and American negotiating teams based on reports of the recent discussions President Obama had with Netanyahu and Abu Mazen (Mahmoud Abbas). While our meeting is fiction, the statements, or words like them, have recently been said.

An imaginary Minister of Justice Tzippi Livni represents Israel; an imaginary chief negotiator Saeb Erikat represents the Palestinians, and an imaginary Secretary of State John Kerry – the US government. I will be the imaginary moderator.
Me: Welcome everyone. We’re here to evaluate the current status of the peace process between Israel and the Palestinians. Here is my first question: Does this round of talks, which is scheduled to end on April 29, have any chance of success? 
Kerry: Yes – as soon as “both sides are willing to make difficult decisions”.
Livni:  Yes – as soon as the Palestinians agree to recognize Israel as the Jewish state, give up their quest for “right of return” for every 1948 refugee and all their descendants, agree to a border based on the 1967 “green line” with land swaps that leaves the Jordan valley in Israel, a demilitarized Palestine…and a signed peace treaty that says “end of all conflict and demands”.
Erikat: Yes – as soon as Israel pulls every settler and soldier out of the West Bank, especially the Jordan Valley where my family has lived in Jericho for thousands of years – since before the Jews ever arrived, ends the “siege” on Gaza, agrees to accept all Palestinian refugees that want to return, and drops this new demand of recognizing Israel as the “Jewish” state.
Me: Saeb: Why did you recently remove an entry in your own Facebook page describing the origin of the Erekat clan to be from the Bedouin Huweitat tribe in the northwestern Arabian Peninsula? According to Bedouin historians, your clan migrated from there about 100 years ago to the village of Abu-Dis near Jerusalem – long after the Jews started returning to their historical homeland.
Erikat: No, no! Zionist lies! as I said in Munich last month: "I am the proud son of the Canaanites who were there 5,500 years before Joshua bin Nun burned down the town of Jericho" 
Me: But as reported on Monday by Ambassador Alan Baker, Director of the Institute for Contemporary Affairs at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs:  “According to genealogical research of the Bedouin families in Israel, the Erekat family belongs to the extensive Huweitat clan, which originated in the area of the Liya valley, near Taif, in the vicinity of Mecca”. So in fact you, and many “Palestinian” families, are actually descendants of Bedouins – nomads from the Arabian Peninsula. 
Kerry: Can we please get back to the issue of recognition of Israel as a “Jewish State”? I told the House foreign affairs committee last Thursday that: "I think it’s a mistake for some people to be raising it again and again as the critical decider of their attitude toward the possibility of a state, and peace…"
Livni: Excuse me, John…have you changed your mind since we last talked? As Bibi told Obama at their meeting, there is no way that Israel will ever accept a deal that does not include recognition of the Jewish history, heritage and character of Israel, a clear “end of conflict clause”, and dropping any reference to Palestinian “right of return”.
Erikat: And as Israel’s Channel 2 reported, during his talks in Washington with President Obama, Abbas rejected recognizing Israel as a Jewish state, said he would continue to demand a Palestinian right of return to their former homes in Israel and would not commit to a peace agreement being an “end of conflict.”
Livni: So what is there to talk about?
Kerry: Like I said last week: “I’ve never seen so much animosity between the two sides.
Me: I guess this would be a good time to adjourn this meeting. At this point we can all agree that barring a miracle, or a new American framework proposal, Mr. Kerry (!)…when our April 29 deadline arrives, this round of the never-ending so-called peace talks, like all those before it, will be DOA.
Kerry: “It’s tough, it’s tough”.
Me: Yes…it is. 
   Agree or disagree, that’s my opinion.

Two skirmishes they didn’t report

   Because of the media focus on the disappearance of the Malaysian airliner, the referendum in Crimea, the weather in Texas and “March Madness”, it is no surprise that two major events in the Middle East over the past week received hardly a passing mention in the news.

   For the benefit of our readers, here is a summary and analysis of these events.
Gaza – Last Tuesday (3/11) an IDF patrol was fired upon from the Gaza Strip. The soldiers returned fire, killing three Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) terrorists. Over the next two days over 70 rockets and mortars were launched against Israel by the PIJ. Israel responded with a combination of tank, artillery and air strikes against PIJ and Hamas positions, weapon stores and communications facilities throughout the Strip. 
    Following Egyptian mediation, a tentative calm was restored on the basis of “quiet for quiet” with two clear understandings:  1) that any attack against Israel, no matter how small, will be answered with massive, destructive and disproportionate force. 2) Hamas will be held responsible and will be targeted, too.
Lebanon – Last Friday (3/14) an IED (Improvised Explosive Device) was deployed against an IDF jeep patrolling the Lebanese border near Mt. Hermon. The jeep was damaged though there were no injuries to the soldiers. The IDF fired a barrage of tank and artillery rounds against Hezbollah positions and outposts both near the area of the incident and deeper in Lebanon. A senior military official said "Hezbollah was involved and Hezbollah will be hurt."
   In both Gaza and Lebanon, the attacks were perpetuated by Iranian proxy terrorist groups. There is no question that the timing and targeting was initiated by Iran in response to two recent perceived national “insults”: 

1. An air strike in Lebanon on Feb 24 that destroyed an Iranian missile convoy on its way to Hezbollah.
2. The Israeli seizing of the Iranian rocket and ammunition carrying ship Klos C in the Red Sea on March 5, which was on its way to supply the PIJ and Hamas in Gaza. 

Analysis: Both shipments were not intended to support either Hamas or Hezbollah. 
   The large quantity of medium range rockets and missiles were earmarked by Iran to be deployed to either deter Israel from attacking Iran’s nuclear weapons facilities, or to be used to try to “punish” Israel in retaliation to an Israeli (or Israeli and American) strike.
   This teaches us that Iran has absolutely no plan to dismantle or cut back on its nuclear weapons development program. They say as much openly…and with a smile. 
   The P5+1 powers, and especially the US, are desperate for a “framework agreement” that would somehow show that the Iranians are serious in the current round of talks. Iran however has no intention of coming to such a deal.  And while they are not sure about US intentions, they are absolutely convinced that Israel will stand by her “red line” commitment not to let them reach nuclear weapon “break-out” stage. Hence the urgency to deploy medium and long range rockets along Israel’s borders.
   While Israel’s preemptive actions certainly delivered a blow to Iran’s plans and ego, nobody in the intelligence communities believes for a moment that the IRGC, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp, under orders of the Grand Ayatollah, is not already scheming to get other rockets and missiles into Lebanon and Gaza. I am confident that Israel is already several steps ahead of them. 
   But they will try. Iran’s leaders know that while America has the power, only Israel has the determination and ability to stop them from going nuclear.
    Agree or disagree, that’s my opinion.

IDF Operation “Full Disclosure” – interception on the high seas

    In the pantheon of military achievements, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has a whole gallery to itself. Starting with the small, undermanned and underequipped militia in 1948 that defeated seven fully armed and trained Arab armies, through the 1956 Sinai Campaign, the 1967 Six Day War, the 1973 Yom Kippur War and dozens of missions worldwide over the past sixty six years (most of which are yet to be declassified). Whatever it takes, and wherever the threat, the primary role of the IDF is to protect and defend Israel.

   Last week the world saw another meticulously planned and perfectly executed IDF operation. An operation that, without a doubt, saved thousands of Israeli lives. A military operation that took place over 600 miles from Israel, in the international waters of the Red Sea: “Operation Full Disclosure”.
   Here are just some of the details:

• Early last Wednesday morning, IDF navy commandos of the elite “Shayetet 13” unit intercepted an Iranian shipment of advanced weaponry intended for terrorist organizations operating in the Gaza Strip.
• The shipment was on board the Iranian cargo ship Klos-C, sailing under a Panamanian flag. 
• The operation was made possible due to the combination of in-depth intelligence and enhanced operational capabilities. 
• This shipment was meant to reach the hands of terrorist organizations in Gaza or Sinai that systematically use such weaponry against the Israeli civilian population.
• IDF special naval forces boarded the vessel, in accordance with international law, and carried out a preliminary inspection of the cargo.
• They discovered numerous advanced weapons during the inspection, including M-302 surface-to-surface rockets, which are capable of reaching any point in Israel.
• After being escorted to the Israeli port of Elat, the containers were offloaded and inventoried.
• The shipment included: 40 M-302 rockets, 181 122-mm mortars, and 400,000 7.62 caliber bullets.
• If Palestinian terrorist organizations had gotten their hands on these weapons, they would have been able to use them against millions of Israeli civilians.

   The shipment had been tracked for weeks by Israeli, US and Egyptian Intelligence services, following the Syrian made rockets as they were flown from Damascus to Teheran, transported to the Iranian port of Bander- Abbas and loaded on to the Klos-C under bags of cement, together with the mortar rounds and ammunition..
   The ship was monitored as it sailed to Iraq to load more cement to camouflage the real cargo, then sailed towards Port Sudan from where the arms were to be transported by truck to Gaza.
   The Times of Israel reports: “Israel and the US coordinated intelligence and military activities leading up to Israel’s seizure of the Klos-C off the coast of Port Sudan, US Ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro and the State Department said Wednesday.”
   “After consultations between American and Israeli officials, it was decided that Israel would act against the vessel, Shapiro told Israel Radio, even though the Pentagon had already drafted plans to intercept the ship.”
   Iran’s motive for undertaking such a risky and potentially embarrassing arms smuggling venture is simple – and has nothing to do with supporting this or that terrorist group. Like the rocket stockpile Israel allegedly destroyed in an air strike in Lebanon two weeks ago, this shipment was destined for only one purpose: to retaliate against Israel when (not “if”) Israel and/or the US launches a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
   It is no secret that Israel’s Iron Dome anti-missile system is not very effective against a barrage of the heavy, long range, M203 rockets launched simultaneously from several directions – Lebanon, Syria, Gaza and/or Sinai.
   So while I have no doubt that Iran will continue to try to smuggle these “game-changing” weapons in to Lebanon, Sinai and Gaza, I have full faith that Israel and the IDF, with like-minded friends, will continue to prevent that from happening. 
    Agree or disagree, that’s my opinion.

A Tale of Two Meetings

     According to reports in recent days, President Obama has decided to take a more direct role in the stalled Israeli-Palestinian “Peace Talks”. In that context the White house has scheduled two meetings. The first is with Prime Minister Netanyahu on March 3rd, and the second with PLO Chairman Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) later this month.

  Several events in the past week indicate that the possibility of a positive breakthrough or even a resumption of the direct talks is slim at best.
   First we have a lowering of expectations by all sides, with senior officials describing the chance of success at: “less than 50%”, “not good”, “impossible”, “very small”, etc.
   Then there was a meeting between Secretary of State John Kerry and Abu Mazen last week in Paris where Kerry presented his latest proposals based on discussions with the Israelis and some of the Palestinian’s demands. According to Palestinian reports Abu Mazen “went into a rage”, rejecting the proposals  as “insane”.
   Then we have the latest, and most difficult to understand episode. In a long interview with Geoffrey Goldberg of Bloomberg View, timed to be published just one day before his Oval Office meeting with Netanyahu this week, President Obama threatened Israel that it would “face a bleak future - one of international isolation and demographic disaster - if he (Netanyahu) refuses to endorse a U.S.-drafted framework agreement for peace with the Palestinians”
   The President went on to say that he “views Abbas as the most politically moderate leader the Palestinians may ever have.”
 Goldberg went on to write in Bloomberg: “It seemed obvious to me that the president believes that the next move is Netanyahu's. Obama said: "If there's something you know you have to do, even if it's difficult or unpleasant, you might as well just go ahead and do it, because waiting isn't going to help. When I have a conversation with Bibi, that's the essence of my conversation: If not now, when? And if not you, Mr. Prime Minister, then who? How does this get resolved?"
   According to David Horowitz in Israel News on March 3rd: “The timing of President Obama's interview with Jeffrey Goldberg could not have been any more deliberate - an assault on the prime minister's policies delivered precisely as Netanyahu was flying in to meet with him. At the very least, that might be considered bad manners, poor diplomatic protocol, a resounding preemptive slap in the face: I've just told the world you're leading your country to ruin, Mr. Prime Minister. Now, what was it you wanted to talk to me about?”
    Horowitz continues: “The president's comments reinforce years of grievance that have accumulated in Netanyahu's circles and some distance beyond, to the effect that the president ignores the inconsistencies, duplicities and worse of the Palestinian Authority and its leader Mahmoud Abbas, while placing exaggerated blame for the failure of peace efforts at the door of the Israeli government. The president's public display of disaffection will hardly encourage the Palestinians to adopt more flexible positions on such core issues as their demand for a "right of return" for millions of Palestinians to Israel.  The president's resort to an interview on the eve of their talks to issue near-apocalyptic warnings to Netanyahu is unlikely to bolster the prime minister's confidence in their alliance.”
    Between the Paris meeting and the Goldberg interview, it’s hard to see anything more than a hardening of positions on both the Israeli and the Palestinian sides.
   By the time you read this column it will be after Obama’s meeting with Netanyahu, and before the one with Abu Mazen.
   The post-meeting spin and commentary may try to create a positive perception for the outcome of the current effort to resolve the conflict.  However I believe that the differences remain unbridgeable, at least until the Palestinians get a leader who really wants peace with the Jewish State, and is willing and able to convince them to amend their 66 year old narrative, and their currently unrealistic expectations.
   And no, Mr. President: With all due respect – Mahmoud Abbas is not that leader.  
   Agree or disagree, that’s my opinion.

The Arik Sharon I Knew

    I first met Arik Sharon in 1958, at a neighborhood reception at Moshe Dayan’s house for Israel’s legendary national soccer goal keeper, Yankele Chodorov. When my parents and I walked in the door, Dayan took us into the crowded living room to meet Chodorov. As a ten year old who had spent my entire life in America, I had no idea what soccer was or why this man was so famous. 

   Neither was I very impressed when Dayan introduced us to a smiling young couple sitting nearby saying “and these are our neighbors Arik and Margalit Sharon, and their baby son Gur. Arik is a real hero of Israel.” Again – I had no idea what he was talking about. I just wanted to go out to the back yard to play with the other kids.
   The neighborhood we lived in, Zahalla, is a bedroom suburb of Tel-Aviv, built in 1949 for senior and mid-level IDF and Security Service officers. We lived on the corner of Yoav and Avner streets. Three houses from us on Avner Street was the home of Yitzhak and Leah Rabin. Moshe and Ruth Dayan lived two houses from us on Yoav Street. Across from them lived Motti and Pnina Hod (Commander of the Israeli Air force), and two more houses up were Arik and Margalit Sharon. In those days in Zahalla, everyone knew each other, and no-one ever locked their doors.
    Sharon frequently walked in the neighborhood with Margalit and Gur. As a young Scout leader I would see him especially on Saturday afternoons when the Scout troop was active. He would come to beam with pride watching Gur and his friends doing drills or whatever the activity was. He was always ready with advice and suggestions. 
   In the early 60’s, Sharon had it all: a meteoric military career as a revered courageous and innovative (if sometimes unorthodox and undisciplined) elite combat officer, a nice house in Zahalla, a wonderful and loving wife and a son he adored and prepared for leadership. There was no question in Sharon’s mind that Gur was going to be a future IDF Chief of staff and Prime Minister of Israel. And he told everybody!
   But then tragedy struck – twice. On May 2, 1962, Margalit was killed in a car accident on the road to Jerusalem. At 33, Arik Sharon became a widower with a 6 year-old son.
   A year later he married Margalit’s sister, Lilly.  Together they had two more sons – Omri and Gilad. 
   Then, in 1967, when Gur was 11-years-old, he was playing with a friend when an antique gun that was part of a collection Sharon kept in the house went off. Sharon was at home when the shot rang out. He ran to room and found his son bleeding in critical condition. Carrying Gur he ran into the street to stop a passing car. When they arrived at the hospital, Gur had already died in his arms. According to the investigation it was impossible to know which of the boys was actually holding the flint-lock pistol when it went off, after they stuffed matches and aluminum foil down the barrel.
   Sharon was never the same. I can’t forget the sight of Arik Sharon, scruffy, disheveled, and unshaven slowly rambling around Zahalla, staring down and muttering in a low voice. Ten years ago, in a rare statement about Gur’s death, he said:  “There is no cure for that kind of pain. At first, it hits you a thousand-fold in the moment. Yes, you say to yourself, what would have happened if I had done this or that? If I had done things differently…"
   During my regular and reserves service in the IDF our paths crossed briefly several times.
   My last significant encounter with Arik Sharon was in Lebanon following the 1982 war.     
   In the winter of 1982-83 I was commander of the IDF Spokesman Unit in Lebanon. The Israeli government had rented a large villa from a Saudi princess in Beirut to house my unit as well as offices of the Mossad and General Security Services (“Shin Bet”), together with senior representatives from the ministries of Defense, Foreign Affairs and Trade. We were, for all purposes, the “Israeli Embassy” in Lebanon.
   Sharon, as Defense Minister, frequently came with one or two aides to the villa for meetings with senior Lebanese officials as well as US and French military commanders. He often stayed for a night or two. In the evenings we would all sit around, smoking cigars and sipping Napoleon Brandy (brought to us by Tunik, the princess’s servant  who came with the villa), discussing world affairs or reminiscing on past experiences and adventures. At times Sharon would sort-of phase out and just stare at the small TV or focus on a spot on the wall.  
     One evening he asked me to join him on the porch. Outside he leaned against the porch railing and looked out towards the garden. After a few moments he asked quietly: “Tell me Gil, do you remember Gur?”  “Of course” I answered, “he was in my brother’s class”. After a long pause he took a deep breath, looked at me with sad, tired eyes and said: “you know that he would have been a great prime minister”, and without waiting for a response walked back into the house, smiling and booming: “Nu, so what did I miss?”
   Sharon will be remembered and studied for years as a brilliant combat officer, defender of Israel and the Jewish people, complex and controversial character, shrewd politician and stubborn “bulldozer”.  Streets, buildings and institutions will be named after him. He will be loved and hated, revered and vilified.
   But for me, Arik Sharon will always be the doting father of Gur, whom I first met that afternoon at Dayan’s home. 
   Agree or disagree, that’s my opinion.