2015 Will Be A Very Interesting Year

If there is one thing that over 40 years of both participating in, and analyzing ongoing events in the Middle East has taught me – it’s that it is impossible and naïve to try to predict the future. Even “legitimate” prophets got it wrong most of the time…those were the “prophesies” that never got into the bible or history books.

So with all that in mind – I’m going to stick my neck out and take an educated guess about what we may expect to possibly see in the coming year in Israel, the Middle East and here in the US.

Israel:

• With opposition to Netanyahu growing within his own party, even if he wins the Likud primaries next week there is no certainty that he will lead the next government after the March 17 general elections.
• Regardless of the election results, Israel will remain strong and capable of dealing with any and all current and foreseeable security challenges over the year. The excellent choice of Gen. Gadi Eizenkot as the new IDF Chief of Staff strengthens that conviction, and also sends a message to Iran that Israel is not making idle threats. 

The Palestinians:

• Deepening divisions between Fatah and Hamas, and within a now split leadership in Fatah itself; will lead to increased terrorist attacks against Israel as well as violent infighting between Palestinian factions as each group positions itself for the “post Abu Mazen” era.

The Peace Talks

• Despite renewed US pressure and a so-far feeble Palestinian attempt at getting a UN Security Council resolution to force Israel to withdraw from the West Bank, in 2015 there will probably be no serious continuation of the talks. Of course Israel will be blamed for the failure, despite the fact that the PLO walked away from the table. 

ISIS

• Will continue to grow, expand in numbers and territory of the “Caliphate” and pose a direct threat to Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Europe. In an attempt to appease ISIS, more European countries will distance themselves from Israel and the US, and even develop diplomatic relations with the Islamic State.

Iran 

• The Ayatollah and IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp) regime will continue to develop not only nuclear “breakout” capability, but in all probability one or two testable nuclear devices. 

• Since no other country seems to have the intent to stop them militarily, Netanyahu – or the next Israeli Prime Minister - may have to take very tough and risky decisions.

Islamist-lead and inspired terrorism

• Under the inspiration of the ISIS highly professional and slick PR and Social Media campaign, and the technical and planning expertise, leadership abilities and blind anti-American obsession of Al-Qaeda, virtually every terrorism research and analysis think-tank in the world is predicting a major uptick in Islamist terrorism attacks and specifically in the US and against US interests and targets around the world.

• These attacks, or attempted attacks will range from highly sophisticated and well planned 9/11 style mass casualty strikes, already being prepared by Al-Qaeda and its affiliate organizations, to local radicalized home-grown cells capable of inflicting damage on utilities and infrastructure or attacking schools or entertainment areas, and down to the “lone wolf” terrorist – who is not necessarily affiliated with any group.

So here’s my “guestimate” of 2015 in a nut-shell:

• A new government in Israel – with or without Bibi.
• Iran gets closer to nuclear weapons, or actually produces one.
• Israel gets stronger, prepares for new threats and absorbs more immigrants, mainly from Europe, US and Australia.
• Israel establishes new partnerships with regional countries.
• Ongoing and accelerated Islamization of Europe.
• US led war against ISIS and Al Qaeda expands, though the coalition changes.
• Worldwide anti-Semitism grows. Israel benefits from increased immigration.
• America’s image as a world leader continues to deteriorate…unless it eliminates Iran’s nuclear program militarily. (Unfortunately taking down North Korea’s internet for a few hours doesn’t count!).

In summary: Any one, none or all of the above predictions may pan out.

The only thing I am absolutely certain about is that 2015 will be a very interesting year.

If you want to be happy - go to Israel

If you only got your information about Israel over the past year from news reports and “talking heads” on TV and radio, you could be excused for having the impression that Israelis would be among the most distraught, paranoid,  mistrustful and fearful people on the planet.

After all, what other country is surrounded by armed enemies that constantly declare their commitment to its destruction? What other country is told by a soon-to-be-nuclear enemy that it is a “cancer that must be eradicated”, or “blight on the face of the earth that must be “burned to the ground”?”

What other small country suffers almost daily terrorist attacks and occasional rocket barrages, and yet is criticized, threatened and sanctioned by its supposedly “good friends” when it dares to take the necessary measures to defend its people and its homeland?

I could go on about anti-Zionism demonstrations on college campuses or the worldwide anti-Israel BDS (Boycott, Diversify, and Sanction) movement, and frequent elections...but you get the picture. The Israelis have every right to be...well, at least a bit uptight.

And yet, with all that, the Israelis are actually happy...happier than almost all the other people in the world – including the US!

Proof - an annual survey ranked Israel the 11th-happiest country in the world, ahead of the United States, and far ahead of its neighbors in the region.

As reported in the Times of Israel on September 10^th, The World Happiness Report, published three months ago, was based on data collected for 156 countries between 2010 and 2012. Denmark, Norway and Switzerland took the top three spots.

The report ranked the happiness of the world’s nations based on a “life evaluation score,” a number between 0 and 10 that measures several factors including health, family and job security, and social factors like political freedom, social networks and lack of government corruption.

The index was a collaborative effort between the Vancouver School of Economics, the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research, the London School of Economics, and Columbia University.

Israel jumped three spots in the rankings from last year, coming in just behind Australia (10th). The United States dropped six spots, coming in at 17th, and the United Kingdom placed 22nd.

Israelis are much happier when compared to their neighbors in the Middle East. Jordan ranked 74th in the survey, Lebanon 97th, and Egypt 130th.

War-ravaged Syria ranked 148th on the list, and Togo’s citizens were ranked least happy.

One of the goals of the report was to challenge the assumption that happiness is directly correlated to wealth. While the countries that are happiest by and large do tend to be the wealthiest ones, it is social factors that play a larger role in the happiness of those countries, including the absence of government corruption and the degree of personal freedom.

So now, as 2014 draws to an end – we can add another great category to the Israelis long list of world leading achievements. In addition to being pioneering, resourceful, dynamic, groundbreaking, industrious, inventive, compassionate, courageous, ingenious, revolutionary and more than occasionally a little bit “chutzpadik”...Israelis are HAPPY!

Israeli Elections - A Guide to the Perplexed

On Monday this week the Knesset, Israel’s single-house parliament, unanimously passed legislation to self-dissolve, and hold national elections on March 17, 2015.

Since the government (Israel’s executive branch) receives its powers from the Knesset (the legislative branch”), Bibi Netanyahu’s government is automatically “resigned”. 

That does not mean that Israel is without a government. The outgoing cabinet continues to function with full executive powers and authority as an “interim” government until April or May, when the newly elected Knesset is sworn in and seated, so that it can pass a vote of confidence in the new government, which is then sworn in and starts functioning immediately.

The framework of the Israeli electoral system is defined in Article 4 of the Basic Law: The Knesset, which states: "The Knesset shall be elected by general, national, direct, equal, secret and proportional elections, in accordance with the Knesset Elections Law."

• General: On Election Day, voters cast one ballot for a political party to represent them in the Knesset. Every Israeli citizen aged 18 or older has the right to vote, and every citizen aged 21 or older can be elected to the Knesset. (The president, state comptroller, judges and senior public officials, as well as the chief-of-staff and high-ranking military officers, cannot stand for election to the Knesset unless they have resigned their position at least 100 days before the elections.) 
• National: The entire country constitutes a single electoral constituency. 
• Direct: The Knesset, the Israeli parliament, is elected directly by the voters, not through a body of electors. 
• Equal: All votes cast are equal in weight. 
• Secret: Elections are by secret ballot. 
• Proportional: The 120 Knesset seats are assigned in proportion to each party's percentage of the total national vote.

Knesset elections are based on a vote for a party rather than for individuals. Prior to the elections, each party presents its platform and a list of candidates to the Election Committee. A list deposited with the Committee is “carved in stone” and cannot be changed or revised until the NEXT election. 

Parties seated in the outgoing Knesset can automatically stand for re-election.

Other parties can present their candidacy after getting signatures of 2,500 eligible voters and depositing a bond, which is refunded only if they succeed in winning at least one Knesset seat.

Knesset seats are assigned in proportion to each party's percentage of the total national vote. So if, say, a party gets 20% of the total amount of legal votes cast in that election, then it will be allocated 20% of the seats (24).

The number and order of members entering the new Knesset for each party corresponds exactly to its list of candidates deposited for that election. There are no by-elections in Israel. If an MK resigns or dies during the term, then the next person on that party's list automatically replaces him/her. 

The Central Elections Committee, headed by a justice of the Supreme Court is responsible for conducting and supervising the elections. It has the authority to prevent a party or list from participating in elections if its objectives or actions, expressly or by implication, include one of the following: 

• Negation of the existence of the State of Israel as the state of the Jewish people;
• Negation of the democratic character of the State; 
• Incitement to racism. 

Election Day in Israel is an official holiday so that everyone can participate .Soldiers on active duty vote in special polling stations in their units. Special arrangements are made for prison inmates to vote, as well as for those confined to hospital. Israeli law does not provide for absentee ballots, and voting takes place only Israeli soil. The only exceptions are Israeli citizens serving on Israeli ships (both navy and civilian) and in Israeli embassies and consulates abroad. 

As soon as the votes are tallied and confirmed by the Election Committee, the new Knesset is sworn in and begins to function. This creates an interesting situation because the “old” Interim Government is still in place and running the country. . .

Following consultations with the new Knesset factions, the president gives one Knesset member, who seems to have the support of at least 61 members, the responsibility of forming a government. 

This “Prime Minister designate” now has 28 days to present to the Knesset a list of ministers for approval, together with an outline of proposed government guidelines. All the ministers must be Israeli citizens and residents of Israel; they don’t have to be Knesset members, but most usually are.  

To date, all governments have been based on coalitions of several parties, as no party since 1949 has received the minimum of 61 Knesset seats to be able to form a government by itself.

As you can see – in Israel – unlike in the US, the Prime Minister’s government draws its power and authority from the Knesset, which is elected by the people.

A week ago I was convinced that Bibi Netanyahu was a lock to continue as Prime Minister after this election. Today, with all the shameless deal making, political ship-jumping, backstabbing and foreign “intervention”…I’m not so sure, not so sure at all. I guess we’ll have to wait until after the elections.

Iranian Nukes-Remember "No deal is better than a bad deal"?

Last week I predicted that the November 24th deadline to reach an agreement between Iran and the "P5+1" countries (US, Russia, UK, France, China) would lead to either a “good” deal, a “bad” deal, or a “terrible” deal (a short extension of the talks while trying to maintain the current UN imposed sanctions and intrusive inspection protocol).

On Monday we found out that following recent threats and insults by the ailing Grand Ayatollah and his henchmen, the P5+1 group agreed to not a 'BAD' deal, or even a 'TERRIBLE' deal.

After a year of promising the world that America will never let Iran construct or acquire nuclear weapons..."period", the US, leading a band of weak-kneed world leaders, agreed to what can only be described, at first blush, as a "TERRIBLY BAD" deal:

• Talks are extended for 7 months 
• .Iran continues enrichment. 
• The Arak heavy water reactor will be built and possibly go “hot”. 
• No effective monitoring or inspections will be conducted. 
• No access of the UN’s IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) officials to a suspected nuclear weapons testing base.  
• Iran will get over $700,000,000 a month from unfrozen funds.
• US (and probably Israeli) military strikes are effectively suspended until July 2015.

Bottom line: As of last Monday, Iran is, for all intents and purposes, a break-out nuclear military power, possibly capable of detonating a rudimentary device within 6-8 weeks.

It can still be stopped - but only by a country that has both the ability AND the intent to do so. Only four countries in the world today have the ability: The US, Russia, China and Israel. The first three clearly have no intent. And because of this absurd UN sanctioned “talk extension”; Israel now has to wait at least until April...unless the Iranians launch a missile attack on Israel from Lebanon beforehand.

Or does it?

At second blush though, it appears that the Israelis and all P5+1 countries are “satisfied” with the seven month drag-on of the talks. To understand that we have to go back to last November when everyone agreed to a limited time attempt at diplomacy, but were united in declaring that “no deal is better than a bad deal”.

And that, depending on one’s view point, is exactly what happened: Since there was neither a “good” deal nor “bad” deal, what we have is a “no deal”.

Recent reports by the UN’s IAEA and foreign intelligence agencies confirm that during the past twelve months of talks Iran did not fulfill any of its obligations according to the November 2013 “Joint Plan of Action”, agreement with the P5+1, that were a condition of conducting the negotiations in the first place, and easing the sanctions.

Since Iranian leaders say that they have no intention (or incentive since the sanctions have been breached) of fulfilling those obligations – there is no reason to assume that the extended talks will have different results. President Rouhani went on Iranian TV to declare the extension a victory, saying “the centrifuges are spinning and will never stop.”

So effectively we are in a state of “no deal” – back to the situation a year ago. The only difference is that in the interim Iran has added more enriched Uranium to its stockpiles, constructed and installed newer and more efficient centrifuges, advanced and upgraded production and development of nuclear warheads and long-range missiles (though intel reports say they are still having problems with a reliable missile deliverable warhead) and is about to complete construction of a heavy water reactor.

Which logically should automatically reinstate the “Red Lines” of both the US and Israel. I don’t know about America’s…but I have no doubt that Israel’s red line was never taken off the table.

By the way – the fact that Israel this week entered into election mode must also be taken into account.

Thanksgiving thoughts

Thanksgiving, like the Fourth of July, is the quintessential American national holiday. As we sit down to our Thanksgiving dinners this week, some of us will be debating whether (aside from our health, personal successes and loving families)…is there really anything to be truly grateful for this year? Let’s look at the Middle East.

IRAN

Since I’m writing this on Friday, November 21^st, just 3 days before the November 24^th deadline to conclude the Iranian-P5+1 nuclear deal, and as reports from the last-minute negotiations in Vienna at this moment do not bode well, I can only speculate as to what may have happened on Monday to be thankful about. 

Did Iran agree to a “good deal” that will result in a complete and verifiable end to its nuclear weapons program? Now that would certainly be a reason to celebrate and give thanks. 

Was a half-baked “bad deal” signed which would effectively leave Iran just weeks from nuclear “break-out” capability?  Then thanks…but no thanks, nothing here to be grateful about. 

Did the US and the P-5+1 negotiators agree to extend the deadline for the agreement once again – perhaps “sweetening the pot” for the Iranians by easing even more of the sanctions in the interim period without getting anything in return? This, of course, is the absolutely worst case scenario in my view, as well as that of most Middle East analysts, since it enables the Iranians to:

1. continue to enrich Uranium,

2. complete construction of the Arak Heavy Water nuclear reactor that will produce weapons-grade Plutonium,

3. continue research and development of nuclear weapons at their secret facility in Parchin, and

4. continue building and storing missiles capable of reaching Saudi Arabia, Israel and Europe together with ICBMs (Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles) capable of hitting the US.

ISRAEL AND JERUSALEM

The Third Intifada, as I wrote in this column two weeks ago, is not going to wind down any time soon. Last week saw a tragic escalation when two Israeli Arabs from East Jerusalem entered a synagogue in a West Jerusalem orthodox neighborhood with carving knives, hatchets and a gun. They butchered to death four orthodox Jews, several of them Rabbis, and a Druze police officer who came to their help, wounding several more. The use of cleavers, knives and an ax is symbolic and very disturbing. The traditional battle cry in Arabic by Islamists and terrorists to kill Jews and Israelis, heard repeatedly in Jerusalem in the past weeks from Palestinian rioters and their leaders is: “Itbach al-Yahud” – literally “Butcher (or “slaughter”) the Jews”. Horrific crime scene photographs and witness reports confirm that that’s exactly what these terrorists did. The victims were slaughtered like animals and some were American citizens.  Thankfully, the terrorists were killed before they could hurt more people. 

The office of the president of the Palestinian authority issued a mild condemnation against “killing of innocents on both sides” while Abu Mazen himself continued to praise the “holy martyrs” who are defending the “sacred Al Aksa” from the Zionist Aggressors” and called for many others to join them.

As we sit at our Thanksgiving tables remembering the pilgrims and their leap of faith across the “pond” to escape religious persecution and establish this great country, we should also remember the young Jewish pioneers from the nineteenth century who also escaped persecution in Europe and Russia, and with a dream of returning to their ancestral homeland traveled great distances, at great risk and hardship. They, too established an “Old-New” country, a country that has absorbed millions of immigrants and despite attempts to this day by overwhelming forces to destroy it, is today a modern, thriving, successful “light–unto-the- nations”.

Israelis – both Jews and non-Jews are proud of their country, though they will frequently debate the best ways for it to move forward.

Everyone in the world today benefits from Israeli inventions and developments in medicine, high-tech, sports, environment and more.

Even countries that “hate” Israel secretly maintain ties with it and would love to mimic its success.

And most of all – we Jews, after 2,000 years of exile and persecution have our ancestral homeland back. Israel is strong, independent, confident…and is here forever.

So, YES!  There is much to be grateful for this Thanksgiving.
                                                                                                                                                                        

The "Third Intifada" is here

The headlines in Tuesday’s editions of several Israeli newspapers said it all: “More Israelis killed by terror in past month than last two years”. As of this writing, Tuesday afternoon November 11, six Israelis have been murdered this month alone in terrorist attacks involving  deliberately using cars to mow down people waiting on line at bus and train stops, and single-terrorist knife attacks in the street.  In all of 2012-2013 there were only five terrorist murders in Israel and the West Bank.

How do we know they were terrorist attacks and not, at least in the case of the car crashes, just “unfortunate accidents”? Because Hamas took responsibility for all the “heroic acts of resistance”, and all the perpetrators were Hamas terrorists or related to Hamas terrorists. 

To make matters worse, the so-called “moderate” Palestinian Authority president, Abu Mazen, issued official declarations praising the attackers who “died as noble martyrs” in the ultimate struggle against the illegal occupiers of Palestine, and called on all Palestinian to “use whatever means necessary” to expel the “Zionist invaders” from the Dome of the Rock.

Abu Mazen also wrote a presidential condolence letter to the mother of Islamic Jihad terrorist Mu'taz Hijazi, who was killed after seriously injuring Temple Mount activist Yehuda Glick in a drive-by assassination attempt two weeks ago in Jerusalem. He praised the terrorist as a hero of Palestine who died a pure martyr’s death and will be remembered for generations, and called on all Palestinians to learn from his example.

This week, PA TV broadcasted Abu Mazen calling for violence against Jews in Jerusalem nineteen times within a three day period. In the broadcast, Abu Mazen called for “Ribat” (religious war over land claimed to be Islamic) on the Temple Mount.

Abu Mazen told the Palestinian people, “It’s not enough for us to say: ‘The settlers have arrived at the Mosque.’ They have come, and they must not come to the Sanctuary (i.e., Temple Mount). We have to prevent them, in any way whatsoever, from entering the Sanctuary. This is our Sanctuary, our Al-Aqsa and our Church of the Holy Sepulcher. They have no right to enter it. They have no right to defile it. We must prevent them. Let us stand before them with chests bared to protect our holy places.”

So the call for violence against Israelis comes directly from the Palestinian leader the Israelis are supposed to be negotiating with in good faith, while he coordinates these terror attacks with Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

So what has brought these usually antagonistic groups together…and has riled up the rest of the Muslim world, including countries that are usually friendly to Israel? Can anyone say: Al-Jazeera? Let me try to explain briefly.

To all followers of Islam, the Al-Aksa mosque and the Dome of the Rock compound in Jerusalem is the third holiest shrine in the world, after the “Sacred Mosque” (Kaaba) in Mecca and the Tomb of Mohammed in Medina.

The very presence of non-Muslims anywhere in the Al-Aksa/Dome of the Rock compound is offensive to many believers. The presence of armed Israeli soldiers or police, in any number, is considered repugnant, and entering either structure with shoes on is a major insult to all Muslims, worldwide.

The first “Intifada” (“uprising” or “shaking off” of Israeli rule) was triggered in 1987 when an IDF vehicle accidentally swerved at a checkpoint killing four Palestinians.

The second Intifada (“the Al-Aksa Intifada) was triggered in 2000 when Arik Sharon made a highly publicized and provocative visit to the Al Aksa compound. And while he was careful to remove his shoes before entering the Dome of the Rock, his bodyguards and the soldiers protecting him didn’t.

Today, under the incitement and orchestration of Hamas and mainly Abu Mazen and Fatah, young, fired up and well paid Palestinian youth, who have prepared rocks, bottles and Molotov cocktails behind barricades just inside the massive doors of the Dome of the Rock wait for orders on their smartphones.

Once Al-Jazeera and other media outlets have positioned their cameras according to instructions they received electronically from Hamas or Fatah, The order is given and the youth outside start attacking the soldiers and police protecting the complex. They then run in, followed by the soldiers, who are hit with barrages of rocks, bottles, iron bars and cinderblocks. 

Once they enter the structure to arrest the attackers and restore order two things are immediately broadcast worldwide: Blood flowing on the “sacred” floor of the building (from non-lethal weapons and ammo used by the soldiers) and military boots entering in hot pursuit of the barefoot rock throwers.

And the Muslim world sees it all. And the “Lone Wolf” Jihadists are enraged, and they hear Abu Mazen’s call to “use any method”, and they get in their car, or grab a gun, knife or tire iron…and go out to kill. 

Whether they end up calling this “The Dome of the Rock Intifada”, or – more appropriately: “Abu Mazen’s Intifada”…the “Third Intifada” is here.

Strange as it may seem, what happens to any hopes of a “peace process” any time soon really depend less on these events in Jerusalem, and more on the November 24 deadline for the Iranian Nuke deal.

And that nexus is REALLY complicated. I’ll discuss it next week.

While you were voting

By the time you read this column, you are probably recovering from a post-elections hangover – either because on Tuesday night you were either celebrating what, in your opinion, was a “great” election result”…or were trying to drown a “terrible one”. 

Either way, believe it or not, while everyone here was focusing on the elections, events in Israel and the Middle East continued to develop and make headlines.

So for the benefit of our readers – here is a summary of this past week.

1.  The “chickenshit” affair: 

• I’m still digging on this and will do a full analysis in a future column. All I can say at this time (Nov 4) is that the more information I uncover, the worse it looks.

2.  The peace process: 

• Following numerous rumors that the US is preparing to present new and innovative proposals to Israel and the Palestinians to resume negotiations, State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said on Monday: "It's up to the parties to take steps. We know what the issues are. We know what the conditions would be. But it's up to them." "We're obviously having a range of discussions and conversations with them privately, but there are no plans to introduce a peace plan.” 

3,  Iranian Nukes:

• According to the interim agreement signed last November between Iran and the P5+1 group (US, Russia, China, France, UK and Germany), in exchange for a gradual and reciprocal easing of sanctions, Iran was to take specific measures, under supervision of the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that would delay its ability to “break-out” into nuclear weapons production.
• During this time negotiations were to be conducted toward signing a final agreement, on November 24, 2014, that would verifiably end Iran’s nuclear weapons ambitions. 
• An IAEA report published last week said that Iran had not fulfilled its obligations according to the November 2013 agreement, and remains today at, or very close to, “breakout” stage, with the ability to build  bombs within 1-2 months.
• The negotiations on the final agreement have stalled, though are scheduled to renew in Oman next week. 

The Israelis and Sunni Arab states, including; Saudi Arabia, Egypt, The Emirates, Turkey and others are very concerned that recent reports from highly reliable Washington sources indicate that in an effort to get Iran to join the coalition against the Islamic State (ISIL), the US administration is willing to make major concessions to Iran (“A Bad Deal”), or even worse – agree to postpone the November 24 deadline. Either will ease the UN Security Council imposed sanctions and enable Iran to effectively become a nuclear power. 

Ray Taqey, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations wrote in Tuesday’s Washington Post:  “As the Nov. 24 deadline approaches, Iran has finally come to the crossroads, and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and many hardline elements seem ready to forge ahead with their nuclear ambitions…hard-liners believe that isolation from the international community can best preserve Iran's ideological identity. This siege mentality drives Iran's quest f or nuclear arms and their deterrent power.” 

So if the Iranian leadership has made the decision to “break-out” to nuclear weapon status – doesn’t that cross the original US “red line”? Isn’t that, according to promises made to Israel and the Saudis over a year ago, when the US was supposed to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities to “degrade and destroy” them? If that is the case then why is the US seemingly bending over backwards to sign a bad deal? 

Or is the US relying on Israel’s “red line” vis-à-vis Iranian nukes? But that brings us back full circle to the “chickenshit” affair…   

As you can see – Middle East dynamics don’t have time to pause for American elections. 

Real and imagined threats to the U.S.

According to a Rasmussen poll published on October 27, "86% of likely U.S. voters now consider radical Islamic terrorism a threat to the United States". Only 12% disagree. Strange as it may be, both groups are right...and both are wrong - depending on how you construe three words in that sentence: "Islamic" "Terrorism" and "threat".

Here are my short and incomplete definitions:

• Islamic: motivated by a strict interpretation of some of the laws of Islam, as detailed in the Quran and the Hadith, to commit acts of extreme violence, cruelty and mass murder against people.

• Terrorism: performing acts of cruelty, physical abuse, kidnappings, starvation and killings for the purpose of breaking people’s will to resist submitting to an ideology, religion or servitude.

• Threat: Creating fear by having a real and imminent ability to bring pain, suffering, destruction, loss of life, liberty, quality of life, etc. to an individual, family, group or nation.

Using those definitions, let’s look at some of the known Islamic terrorist groups today, and what degree of threats they actually pose to the U.S.

ISLAMIC STATE (IS, aka “ISIS”, ISIL”)

1. Base: Syria 
2. Religion: Sunni Salafism 
3. Affiliation: Muslim Brotherhood. 
4. Strength 35,000-45,000 fighters. Heavily armed and trained. 
5. Growing?  YES 
6. Ideology: Jihadism; eradicating the Shiites, establishing an Islamic Caliphate in areas under its control (currently about half of Syria and Iraq). 
7. Threat to the US: VERY SMALL (unless it acquires nuclear weapons…).

Al-QAEDA

1. Base: Afghanistan/Pakistan 
2. Religion: Sunni Salafism 
3. Affiliation: Muslim Brotherhood 
4. Strength: 15,000-18,000 (estimate) 
5. Growing? YES 
6. Ideology: Establishing Worldwide Caliphate; punishing the West – specifically the US. 
7. Threat to the US – very high (see Khorasan below).

JABHAT El-NUSRA

1. Base: Syria. Main rebel group against Assad 
2. Religion: Sunni Salafism/Jihadism 
3. Affiliation: Al Qaeda 
4. Strength: 6,000 (including 60-85 Khorasan foreigners) 
5. Growing? YES 
6. Ideology: Same as Al-Qaeda 
7. Threat to the US – very high, mainly through Khorasan.

KHORASAN

1. Base: Syria – an independent group within Jabhat el-Nusra 
2. Religion: Sunni Islamism/Jihadism 
3. Affiliation: Al-Qaeda 
4. Strength: 60-85, mainly US, Canadian, Asian and EU citizens 
5. Growing? YES! 
6. Ideology: Execute numerous “spectacular” terrorist attacks in the US and Europe that exceed 9/11 in scope, casualties and media coverage. 
7. Threat to the US: Extremely high and immediate.

So among the Islamist terror groups we hear about in the news recently, there is no doubt that Khorasan, though smallest, poses the biggest and most urgent threat to the US homeland and citizens.

The positive side is that with good electronic (signal) and human intelligence (including on-the-ground “specialists” in Syria), and a decision to use whatever force is needed to prevent another 9/11 – the moment the opportunity arises (which unfortunately but necessarily will include targeting American citizens), there is more than a good possibility that this planned series of Al-Qaeda attacks can be stopped…at least for now.

So up till now the 86% in the Rasmussen poll were right.

But the 12% that did not consider Islamic terrorism, as defined above as a threat, were also right.

Just look at the series of “Lone Wolf” attacks that took place in the past few weeks. Not all of them were inspired by Islam and certainly not all followers if Islam are extremists or Jihadists. Most of them are typical Americans, bringing up families, who are loyal to this country and the US Constitution.

But then – so probably are the “Lone Wolf” terrorists. Those not affiliated to any organization, religion or group. They are individuals with “issues” who snapped and had access to a weapon. I believe that right now (and this could change), perhaps with the exception of a few dozen members of Khorasan in Syria, it’s the “Lone Wolf” terrorist that is the biggest threat to the United States.