Serious Mideast news…or Political backdrop?

After just over four weeks in Israel, I can categorically state that I am totally OD’d on the two news stories that seem to be on every local and international station or online news website I go to: The Rio Olympic games (locally), and the US presidential race (worldwide). Thankfully the former ends this week. But the election coverage will continue and only increase as we get nearer to November 8th.

My problem is the endless stream of talking heads and “experts” (usually a former politician, campaign staffers from both parties, a retired military officer, 2 journalists – from the left and the right – and a scholarly professor who has a formula that can predict the results), that pop up on multiple stations. Within one minute it’s easy to know which candidate the station supports. And since it’s the same talking heads, regurgitating the same data and story-of-day, it gets pretty boring pretty quickly.

I was hoping to find fresh faces and analysis from my usually trustworthy stand-by news sources like Fox, CNN, SKY (England), Sputnik (Russia), PressTV (Iran), and even Al-Jazeera USA (online), but to my surprise (or not…) they all had more or less the same talking heads with the same rudimentary and predictable partisan talking points.

But the horrific terrorist attack in Turkey on Sunday, where a young boy of 12, recruited by Daesh (ISIS) blew himself up at a Kurdish wedding in the Southeastern city of Gaziantep, killing 51 celebrants and wounding dozens more, snapped me back to the reality of the Middle East.

Here are some of the news stories you may have missed. One has a possible connection to the elections.

Turkey and Israel – Last Saturday Turkey's parliament approved a reconciliation agreement signed with Israel in June, ending the six-year rift between the two regional powers over the Marvi Marmara boarding incident. Both countries will reappoint ambassadors, and military and commercial ties (which were never really disconnected) will be “reestablished”.

Turkey and US – Scheduled before Saturday’s Islamist terrorist attack, on August 24 vice president Joe Biden is visiting Turkey, for meetings with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Prime Minister Binali Yildirim. This is the first visit by a high-ranking U.S. official since the failed coup attempt in July. While the ongoing war against ISIS will no doubt be high on the agenda now, I understand that the main reason for the visit was to discuss the deterioration in US-Turkey relations, and the delicate subject of extraditing fanatical Sunni cleric Fethullah Gülen, who Erdogan accuses of organizing the failed coup.

Also on the agenda will probably be the recent request from Erdogan’s new “Best Friend” Vladimir Putin to use Turkey’s air force base at Incirlik for bombing raids against anti-Assad Arab and Kurdish rebels in Syria (in addition to the bases Russia is already using in Iran).

This could be a major humiliation to the US if Erdogan agrees to the request, since:

      

1.   The base was built by the US for the American and Turkish air forces.

2.   It’s the main US, “Coalition” and NATO staging area for air strikes and rescue missions in Syria, Iraq and potentially Iran.

3.   The US stockpiles over fifty B61 Thermonuclear (Hydrogen) bombs at Incirlik

4.   Putin is supporting the forces the US is fighting (Assad).

5.   Turkey is fighting the Kurds that the US is supporting.

6.   Russia and Iran are developing close military relations, etc.

So if this is such an important tactical and strategic issue for the safety and security of the United States and Israel, am I the only one that’s wondering why vice president Biden is going to try to thwart it? Especially after Turkey’s Prime Minister Yildirim said on Saturday that he sees no reason why Russia and the US can’t “share” the base.

Why Biden? Such a high level meeting would not be held unless the outcome is known and agreed on in advance. If failure, then the meeting would be cancelled in advance and further staff-level negotiations would probably be held. If successful, then the president, not the VP should be in the limelight at the photo-op. Unless…

I have a wild theory. Could it be that Joe Biden is the understudy who is being prepared to stand in at the last moment as the Democrats presidential candidate if, hypothetically the position becomes available, and that this whistle-stop trip to the Middle-East where he is meeting key leaders very briefly is for the photos to support his international “credentials” with voters?  I said it was a wild theory…

Could be serious news, could be political backdrop, or could be both.

DISCLAIMER: Opinions are the writer’s, and do not represent SWJC directors, officers or members.

 

First Impressions of Israel after 14 Days and 25 years

Tirat Hacarmel, - It's two weeks since we landed in Israel...after 25 years of living in the U.S.

 

The last few months in Dallas were a whirlwind of:

1. Preparation activity:
   • Selling the house and most of our two and a half decades of accumulated "stuff".
   • Buying a whole bunch of new "stuff".
   • Loading and shipping a container.
2. Personal activity:
   • Catching up on a whole bunch of medical check-ups and follow-ups.
   • Getting copies of all our medical records.
   • Saying goodbye to a lot of friends family and contacts around the country.
3. SWJC activity: Working with Susan and our Board to modify the structure of SWJC, so that despite my move to Israel the organization will continue to grow and thrive, while expanding our important educational, programming and fundraising activities.

 And all this while dealing with some serious mixed emotions:

 

On the one hand leaving a sort of nomadic, upwardly mobile, highly satisfying, successful and enjoyable life and career, built position by position with no real planning. On the other hand, going home to the country I love and have served and defended, with weapons and words, my whole life.

 

Or creating a large distance between us and our son, daughter-in-law and three amazing grandchildren who live in Florida, vs. living in Israel just five minutes away from our daughter, son-in-law and four amazing grandchildren who live a short walking distance from the warm, sandy Mediterranean seashore.

 

However any mixed emotions, doubts, regrets or second thoughts evaporated as soon as we stepped off the plane at Ben Gurion airport. The light warm breeze that hit me through the space between the door and the jet-way carried the unmistakable fragrance familiar to every Israeli, whether from their military service, numerous hikes and school trips, youth movement camps or family outings - It's the unique, intoxicating smell of Israel's post-harvest agricultural heartland in July. A varying combination of decomposing cut wheat and rye, wild flowers, organic fertilizer, a hint of pine forests and plowed earth.

 

We were home. No doubts, regrets or mixed emotions. We were HOME!

 

Here is a brief report of my initial impressions to date:

1. News coverage. Not surprisingly, the US elections are hardly given prominence in the Israeli broadcast and print media. Sure they'll mention the two candidates' bad jokes, legal problems, accuracy of statements, latest polling, or new (real or perceived) potential legal, trust or health problems...but it's just not a big headline or lead item in the news here. This will no doubt change as we get nearer to the elections. But for the moment the headlines, front pages and lead stories in the print and broadcast media are almost exclusively about the Summer Olympics in Rio. The fact that Israel has already started to win medals just adds to the excitement. It's interesting that the Olympics have not only bumped the US elections from the top of the news food chain, but also the usual Israeli signature national concerns: security and that perennial crowd-pleaser - Israeli politics.
2. Bureaucracy: Bad news and good news. The bad news - after 25 years the bureaucratic system is still alive and well. In the course of two weeks we had to run around to deal with officials at the:
   1. Ministry of Interior (to confirm that we are citizens and get new ID cards)
   2. Ministry of Absorption (to confirm our status as "returning residents")
   3. Ministry of Finance (to get our tax exemptions as "returning residents")
   4. Office of Customs and Excise tax (forms to get our container released from the port)
   5. National Insurance Administration (forms for National Social Security and Health Care insurance)
   6. Maccabi HMO to sign up for health care + supplemental health insurance + long term care insurance.

The good news - while in every office you still have to take a number (literally!), the system is so well run and efficient that we never had to wait more than three to five minutes for our turn. All the offices were air- conditioned and the officials smiled (never saw that before), were friendly, and went out of their way to help and expedite things. On this score things have certainly changed for the better in twenty-five years.

 

A few more observations:

1. Because Haifa is the largest mixed city in Israel (Tirat Hacarmel is a suburb of Haifa) , about half of the officials we saw were Israeli Arabs, both Christians and Moslems. The same ratio holds true in the streets, stores, the big mall we go to almost daily, restaurants, etc.
2. In no government office did I see the once ubiquitous and omnipresent glass-of-tea-with-two-sugar-cubes. I guess that Israeli officialdom has finally moved on from its "Bolshevik style" origins. No tea in a glass - but a Starbucks style cup of coffee on almost every desk.
3. In case your wondering most Israelis are still, loud, many smoke (mostly outside, though), many still drive like absolute maniacs, and all will offer their sage opinions and well meaning advice whether they know you or not (stranger to me yesterday at a falafel stand: "if you touch that sauce you'll end up in the ER"). 
4. Israel is hot and humid. But every building, shop or mall you enter is air-conditioned, extremely hi-tech and everyone is friendly and will go out of their way to help and point you in the right direction, even if they have no idea where that is.
5. The beaches are clean , the Mediterranean is warm and the boardwalks in Haifa carry the best ice-cream in the world.

These are just my initial, jet-lagged impressions. More observations and, of course, current analysis on Israel and the the Middle East in future updates.

I look forward to talking with you at our upcoming SWJC LIVE briefings from Israel. See dates listed above. Contact  Susan at the office (214-361-0018) to confirm your participation.

 

Disclaimer: Opinions expressed above are the writer's, and do not represent SWJC directors, officers or members.

The Iran Nuke "Deal", One Year Later

Exactly two weeks ago, on July 14, the world hardly noticed that a year had gone by since the announcement that the P5+1 negotiation team (USA, Great Britain, Russia, China, France and Germany) had reached an “deal” with Iran. 

We were told by the Obama administration that the “JCPOA” (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) was guaranteed to prevent Iran from building or acquiring nuclear weapons for at least 15 years by “blocking all pathways” to achieving this. We were told that the world is “safer”.

I was sceptic. After reading the published US version of the JCPOA on the State Dept. website, which is different from the Iranian one, and learning about “secret letters” exchanged between the US and Iranian negotiators, I came to the conclusion that it was a bad deal and wrote the following in this column a year ago:

My personal negative opinion was confirmed during John Kerry’s Congressional testimony, when new elements and “secret understandings” were disclosed, and was reinforced by statements from Iranian leaders after the May 14 announcement. Here are just a few of them:

1. The agreement is not, and never will be signed. This is why the US rushed to get it “approved” by the United Nations Security Council, thus giving a purely verbal “understanding” some pretense of legitimacy.

2. The promise of “robust anytime, anywhere inspections” is gone.

3. Iran keeps its already enriched stockpiles and bomb parts.

4. All military facilities, including the trigger and bomb-assembly plant in Parchin, are off limits to the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency).

5. All facilities are off limits to Americans.

6. All centrifuges remain intact though a few thousand will be temporarily unplugged.

7. With Russia, China and the Europeans already signing huge deals and with Russia accepting the soon-to-be-freed $150 billion as loan collateral, the sanctions no longer exist, and cannot be “snapped back”.

But the most shocking revelation was that Kerry apparently accepted the Iranian negotiators “solemn word and guarantee” that Iran: “Never had in the past, does not have in the present, or plans to have in the future…any nuclear weapons development or acquisition plan”. Seriously? The whole unsigned verbal agreement is based on the “solemn word” of the Iranians?!??

As the Iranian leadership ecstatically tells mass rallies that chant “death to America and Israel”, just how easily they led on and hoodwinked a naïve president who was so desperate for a deal at any cost that he gave them everything they wanted without them conceding anything, regional leaders are listening with growing contempt, mistrust and lack of respect for the US.

That was then…

Today, one year after the much heralded, and still unsigned so-called “Iran Nuke Deal” was announced, the UN’s IAEA and the intelligence agencies of the P5+1 countries admit that they have no knowledge as to what nuclear weapons development Iran did in the past (which it is obligated to disclose), nor what it has today or what it’s secretly working on.

Despite getting almost full sanctions relief, Iran has violated the JCPOA (and UN Security Council resolutions) several times. Its leaders still demonize the West, vow to destroy Israel within the year and are building and testing long range nuke bomb delivery systems with impunity. The head of Iran’s nuclear program announced last week the installation of cascades of the latest “Generation 5” ultra-fast centrifuges.

Meanwhile the US, the “guarantor” of Iranian compliance to the JCPOA, is seen by the Sunni gulf states (and many Israelis) as being either afraid to confront Iran (which would expose the bluff of the “Deal”), or worse, being in bed with the Iranians from the outset.

  

So here is my 1-year cheat-sheet summary of the Iran Nuke Deal, I believe that today:

1. Iran is not significantly farther from the “breakout” time frame that former IAEA chief nuclear inspector David Albright determined a year and a half ago –  three to six months from decision to bomb.

2. With the new centrifuges that time frame will be shortened considerably.

3. Iran is expanding its military capabilities in preparation for war against Saudi Arabia, Turkey…or both.

4. One of the unfortunate consequences of the failed coup in Turkey is the publication of the fact that ninety (90!!!) B-61 thermo-nuclear bombs are stored in Turkey at the Incirlik Air Base, 40 of which are allocated for use by the Turkish Air Force. With the Sunni Turks and Shiite Iranians natural and historic enemies, that are currently fighting on opposite sides in Syria, the fact that this “Deal” did not eliminate the Iranian nuclear program just adds to the regional instability.

5. Contrary to its obligations in the JCPOA, Iran continues to support Islamist terrorism around the world.

6. Iran continues to threaten Israel with Imminent annihilation.

And finally, together with America’s shamefully reneged “red line” threat in Syria and its failure to fulfil promises to “degrade and destroy” ISIS and Al-Qaeda (which is now stronger than ever after Bin Laden’s demise), this “deal” has contributed greatly to the deterioration of America’s image, prestige and respect in the Middle East. Over the past year, Iranian leaders, artists, teachers and entertainers have been mocking American negotiation “skills”, while Sunni Arab leaders and opinion makers have been openly calling for stronger ties to Russia, China, Japan, India and even Israel…because the US can’t be trusted to fulfill its promises or commitments…ouch! 

Bottom line – The JCPA, the Iran Nuke Deal, which is still unsigned (!), was a bad deal then, and is a bad deal now, one year later.

The Ramifications of Turkey's Failed Coup

Sarasota, July 24, 2016

The really important news over the past few weeks, as far as Israel and the Middle East are concerned, has nothing to do with the just finished Republican conference or the just starting Democratic one, or the gut-wrenching violence against police and citizens in our cities. And it has little to do with almost daily Islamist Jihadist terrorism attacks in Europe, Israel, the US and around the world. Those are certainly important and newsworthy...though not, at least at this stage, in a potentially present and future changing dimension.

No. In my opinion that classification belongs to the failed "coup" against the elected government of president Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey.

It is also the most under-reported major news story, at least here in the US. This is probably because of the difficulty of news writers to understand and explain, in coherent 15 second soundbites, what was going on...especially with so many other things happening at the same time.

Historical Background:  

• The Turkish Ottoman Empire (1299-1922) was a Sunni Islamic Caliphate, or "Islamic State", with the sultan also holding the title of "Caliph".
• Under the leadership of Turkish War of Independence victor general Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the Sultanate was abolished on November 1, 1922, and the last sultan, Mehmed VI left the country two weeks later.
• The new Grand National Assembly of Turkey (GNA) officially declared the Republic of Turkey on October 29, 1923, claiming: "The Republic of Turkey is a democratic, secular and social state governed by the rule of law, which has the principle of separation of powers."
• The Caliphate was constitutionally abolished on March 3, 1924.
• The new constitution Ataturk pushed through was geared to assure that no religion, especially Islam, would have any political influence in "secular" Turkey.
• Parties that promoted a religious agenda could not run in elections.
• The newly purged Turkish military was designated guardian of the secular state, with sweeping powers to arrest, put on trial and even outlaw Islamist movements and politicians. This, of course, did not sit well with Islamic traditionalists.
• Several times, the military has stepped in to arrest and outlaw "Islamist" party leaders, including in 1998 when it outlawed and dismantled the pro-Islamist Welfare Party (RP), which Erdogan was a member of.
• Erdogan served10 months in prison for inciting religious intolerance, after which he claimed to abandon "openly" Islamist politics and established the "moderate" conservative AKP party in 2001. AKP won a landslide victory in the 2002 general election, with the party's co-founder Abdullah Gul becoming Prime Minister, until his government annulled Erdogan's ban from political office.
• Erdogan subsequently became Prime Minister in 2003.
• Over the past years there have been several rounds of purges in the Turkish military, with staunch secularists officers being removed, retired or put on trial for "treason", and being replaced by Islamic sympathetic ones.
• Erdogan denies wanting to impose Islamic values, saying he is committed to secularism. But he supports Turks' right to express their religious beliefs more "openly".
• Some supporters nickname him "Sultan" - a fond reference to the Ottoman Empire...
• Under Erdogan, in 2013 Turkey lifted rules banning women from wearing headscarves in the country's state institutions - with the exception of the judiciary, military and police - ending a decades-old Ataturk restriction.
• Critics also pointed to Erdogan's failed bid to criminalize adultery, and his attempts to introduce "alcohol-free zones", as evidence of his alleged Islamist intentions.

Which brings me to the failed "Coup" and its ramifications for Israel, The Middle East and the US.

Assuming this was a real coup (I have my doubts...), it was carried out by a small group of officers and soldiers who were alarmed by the direction Erdogan is taking the country in several areas:

1. The systematic erosion of Ataturk's strict secularist policies.
2. The disappearing chance of Turkey joining the EU.
3. The multiple arrests without trial of anti-Erdogan politicians, journalists and activists.
4. The frequent suspensions of civil rights by imposing "Emergency Law" after terrorist attacks.
5. The changes in the military command personnel.
6. The massive, ongoing influx of unscreened Syrian and Iraqi refugees.
7. The perceived anemic responses to ISIS and PKK (Kurdish Workers Party) terrorist attacks.
8. Growing relations with the anti-American Muslim Brotherhood.

The coup failed. According to official reports, most of its perpetrators were either killed, or arrested, tortured...and then killed.

In the first hours some 6,000 officials plus the same number of military personnel, mainly officers including Karima Komash, a female F16 pilot, 12 generals, 1 Admiral, 56 captains, 170 pilot cadets, and more were immediately arrested, many charged with treason. As of this writing, since the "coup":

• 21,700 Education Dept. civil servants have been fired
• 21,000 teachers have lost their posts
• 8,000 policemen and women fired.
• 2,745 judges and prosecutors suspended
• 1,577 University deacons suspended
• 1,500 finance ministry officials fired
• 262 military judges and prosecutors suspended
• 257 workers in the prime minister's office fired 

The facts that these lists were ready, and that the security teams needed for the arrests were in place, lead me to believe that the whole thing was staged - by Erdogan.

It reminds me of the Reichstag fire in 1933 which was used by the Nazi Party as proof that communists were plotting against the German government, and was pivotal in the establishment of Nazi Germany.

Erdogan's popularity had been waning, while he was trying to assume more direct, dictatorial powers, 

1. The "coup" has now made him a "national hero".
2. He claimed that a rebel pilot in an F-16 had his plane targeted but did not fire. Why?
3. The "state of emergency" gives Erdogan and his cabinet new powers to implement laws without parliamentary approval. It also allows Ankara to censor media broadcasts, search citizens, impose curfews and restrict gatherings both public and private.

But should we really care if Erdogan and his Islamist colleagues in AKP continue to establish the next Turkish/Sunni Sultanate/Caliphate by methodically eroding Kamal Ataturk's secular reforms?

You bet! We should care VERY MUCH because:

1. Turkey is the largest non-Arab Sunni-majority state in the region.
2. Its military is consistently ranked among the ten strongest in the world.
3. It is a member of NATO and, most concerning...:

A total of ninety (90!!!) B61 thermo-nuclear bombs are stored in Turkey at the Incirlik Air Base, 40 of which are allocated for use by the Turkish Air Force.

The medium and long-term ramifications of the failed coup against Erdogan are, at least at the moment, the establishment of a large, Sunni Islamist Turkish superpower with nuclear weapons, facing an Iranian Anti-Sunni Shiite superpower with nuclear weapons (thanks to the "Deal"), both hating each other and together hating Israel, which reportedly is also a nuclear superpower.

All this when the only visible and respected "responsible adult" currently in the Middle East is Vladimir Putin...

Now what could possibly go wrong?!?

What I'll Write About From Israel

Dallas - July 12, 2016 

Notice the dateline at the top of this update? A ‘dateline” tells the reader when and where the article was written.

As most of you already know, I’m moving back to Israel in a few weeks. Therefore, this will be my last update datelined “Dallas”. Future articles and updates will be datelined as appropriate.

And I’ll certainly have a lot to report. While in the past few months here in the US we’ve been preoccupied with politics, ongoing violence (including the tragic attack on Dallas and DART police officers), the economy, BREXIT, more politics, criminal investigations, terrorism threats, immigration, and even more politics...the rest of the world, and especially the Middle East, have generated events and news stories that will have major impacts on the US and Israel. Here is a taste:

• Israel - Netanyahu’s busy week:
  • Affirming the ongoing relations with Cairo, Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry visited Israel this week for a series of meetings. This is the first official visit by a high ranking Egyptian official in nine years. It’s hoped that this visit may lead to a possibility of restarting the Peace Process based on a new initiative of President Sisi, together with an more open thawing of Israeli relations with other Sunni Arab countries.
  • Last week Netanyahu, as Prime Minister and acting Foreign Minister visited several African countries including: Uganda, to mark the 40^th anniversary of the Israeli raid on Entebbe (where his brother, Yoni, was killed), Kenya, Rwanda and Ethiopia.
  • Israel also signed a new friendship treaty with Turkey that restored relations to the way they were before the Mavi Marmara incident.
  • Oh...and Israeli media reported that the Attorney General was investigating Netanyahu on suspicion of some serious money laundering.
• Iran - Complete failure of the “Deal”
  • One year after the much heralded, and still unsigned (!), so-called “Iran Nuke Deal” (JCPOA - Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action), the UN watchdog IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) and the intelligence agencies of the P5+1 countries still admit that they have no clue as to what nuclear weapons development Iran did in the past, nor what it still has and what it’s working on today.
  • Despite getting almost full sanctions relief, Iran has violated the JCPOA (and UN Security Council resolutions) several times. Its leaders still demonize the West, vow to destroy Israel within the year and are building and testing long range nuke bomb delivery systems with impunity.
  • Meanwhile the US, the “guarantor” of Iranian compliance to the JCPOA, is seen by the Sunni gulf states and many Israelis as being either afraid to confront the Iran (which would expose the bluff of the “Deal”), or worse, being in bed with the Iranians from the outset.
• Syria - Fighting continues. After five years and over 400,000 dead.
  • Assad’s Alawite (Shiite) regime is still strongly supported by Russia and Iran.
  • Sunni-ruled Saudi Arabia, seeking to counter the influence of its rival Iran, has been a major provider of military and financial assistance to the rebels, including those with extreme Islamist ideologies.
  • Turkey, another staunch supporter of the rebels, wants to end US support for Kurdish forces fighting ISIS in northern Syria, accusing them of being part of the banned Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).
  • The US, which says President Assad is responsible for widespread atrocities and must step down, has provided only limited military assistance to "moderate" rebels, in addition to limited airstrikes.
• Iraq - The Shiite led, Iranian affiliated government forces have, with considerable US military assistance (what’s wrong with this picture?), succeeded in retaking the city of Fallujah from ISIS, and are now preparing to try to retake Mosul...but probably not anytime soon.
• ISIS - Not “degraded”, not “destroyed”.
  • Lost territory in Syria and Iraq but remains a formidable and well equipped fighting force with demonstrated world-wide terrorism capabilities, and a growing esteem among young, alienated Sunnis around the globe.

And I haven’t even touched on the continued growth of Al-Qaeda, with this week’s threat of revenge against the U.S. by Osama Bin Laden’s son, Hamza, who declared: "We will continue striking you and targeting you in your country and abroad in response to your oppression of the people of Palestine, Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Somalia and the rest of the Muslim lands that did not survive your oppression".

With all that, plus other Middle East developments and, of course, the US elections, there will be plenty to write about, talk about, Skype about and Podcast about from Dateline ISRAEL.

Another Round of Fruitless Negotiations?

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly meeting with US Secretary of State John Kerry this Sunday, June 26, in Rome to discuss ways to revive Israeli-Palestinian peace efforts.  Reports say that Netanyahu will tell Kerry that he backs potential Egyptian-led efforts to revive negotiations, rather than the international approach being pushed by France.

 

In the current political season going on here, in Europe and all year round in Israel, one of the favorite issues raised by candidates trying to flaunt their "international" creds is the so called "Middle East Peace Process. It's really a no-brainer politically, because the general assumption is that in Western democracies most people prefer peace to war, and believe (completely erroneously!) that the Israeli-Palestinian problem is the root cause of all regional conflicts.

 

Those who don't understand the dynamics naively believe that a "two state" resolution is the magic bullet that will instantly stop all the conflicts. If only "they" could sit down and negotiate in good faith then everything else will work out...

 

However after five wars, years of terrorist attacks, months of failed negotiations, numerous broken promises, repeated land concessions by Israel and plenty of blame to go around, there are two schools of thought on how to bring that about.

 

First some definitions:  The political terms "left" and "right" used here are the Israeli definitions, and refer to Ideological and political views on the best way to assure Israel's security and long-term survival: "Right" is more conservative (hawkish), while "Left" is more liberal (dovish).

 

In both cases I'm talking about normative Israelis and Americans, who support Israel and the Zionist dream and understand the need for an eventual resolution to the conflict, but have different opinions as to how to make it happen. Note - in both cases I'm NOT talking about the extreme, sometimes violent fringes of both camps.

1. On the "Right" - mainly secular and religious conservatives who feel that Israel should maintain a tough, non-compromising negotiating posture leading to perpetual Israeli sovereignty over most of the areas of Judea and Samaria, while establishing a less-than-fully sovereign Palestinian nation-state that includes the Gaza Strip, is demilitarized and formally recognizes the Jewish State of Israel.  
2. On the "Left" - secular and traditional liberals who prefer compromise driven negotiations that would essentially return most of the West Bank to the PLO with Israel maintaining permanent security control over the Jordan Valley and certain other small areas crucial to Israel's ongoing and evolving security needs. Israel will also maintain most of the established Israeli communities ("settlements") that are built within the four small "Consensus Blocs", in exchange for agreed land swaps of equal area. Here, too, the ultimate goal is a demilitarized Palestinian nation-state that recognizes Israel as the historical and current sovereign Jewish homeland. 

Israelis tend to wander between the camps, but most are not fully committed to either. They will lean one way or the other at any given time, based on either perceived threats, like war or terrorism, on the one hand...or real movement towards peace on the other.

 

The government of the day has a major influence on national "leaning". But since the government is elected by the voters, we have an interesting "chicken or egg" question...or do we?

 

The fact that in recent elections Olmert, Sharon or Netanyahu were able to cobble together right-of-center coalitions has less to do with general sentiments among Israeli voters, who are basically centrist, and more do with the fact that the traditional centrist parties keep breaking up and reinventing themselves with no coherent or unified platform or legacy leadership.

 

On the other hand the Likud party, with few changes, has anchored the right wing of Israeli politics since 1973.

 

Today, Netanyahu heads a solid coalition of Likud and like-minded coalition partners. Therefore, any proposals that Secretary of State Kerry will present on Sunday will be negotiated from Israel's "right-of-Center" philosophy regarding security and boundaries.

 

Together with the current Palestinian leadership vacuum and ongoing rejectionist statements, I feel pretty safe in predicting that this will just be another round of fruitless negotiations