IDF Operation “Full Disclosure” – interception on the high seas

    In the pantheon of military achievements, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has a whole gallery to itself. Starting with the small, undermanned and underequipped militia in 1948 that defeated seven fully armed and trained Arab armies, through the 1956 Sinai Campaign, the 1967 Six Day War, the 1973 Yom Kippur War and dozens of missions worldwide over the past sixty six years (most of which are yet to be declassified). Whatever it takes, and wherever the threat, the primary role of the IDF is to protect and defend Israel.

   Last week the world saw another meticulously planned and perfectly executed IDF operation. An operation that, without a doubt, saved thousands of Israeli lives. A military operation that took place over 600 miles from Israel, in the international waters of the Red Sea: “Operation Full Disclosure”.
   Here are just some of the details:

• Early last Wednesday morning, IDF navy commandos of the elite “Shayetet 13” unit intercepted an Iranian shipment of advanced weaponry intended for terrorist organizations operating in the Gaza Strip.
• The shipment was on board the Iranian cargo ship Klos-C, sailing under a Panamanian flag. 
• The operation was made possible due to the combination of in-depth intelligence and enhanced operational capabilities. 
• This shipment was meant to reach the hands of terrorist organizations in Gaza or Sinai that systematically use such weaponry against the Israeli civilian population.
• IDF special naval forces boarded the vessel, in accordance with international law, and carried out a preliminary inspection of the cargo.
• They discovered numerous advanced weapons during the inspection, including M-302 surface-to-surface rockets, which are capable of reaching any point in Israel.
• After being escorted to the Israeli port of Elat, the containers were offloaded and inventoried.
• The shipment included: 40 M-302 rockets, 181 122-mm mortars, and 400,000 7.62 caliber bullets.
• If Palestinian terrorist organizations had gotten their hands on these weapons, they would have been able to use them against millions of Israeli civilians.

   The shipment had been tracked for weeks by Israeli, US and Egyptian Intelligence services, following the Syrian made rockets as they were flown from Damascus to Teheran, transported to the Iranian port of Bander- Abbas and loaded on to the Klos-C under bags of cement, together with the mortar rounds and ammunition..
   The ship was monitored as it sailed to Iraq to load more cement to camouflage the real cargo, then sailed towards Port Sudan from where the arms were to be transported by truck to Gaza.
   The Times of Israel reports: “Israel and the US coordinated intelligence and military activities leading up to Israel’s seizure of the Klos-C off the coast of Port Sudan, US Ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro and the State Department said Wednesday.”
   “After consultations between American and Israeli officials, it was decided that Israel would act against the vessel, Shapiro told Israel Radio, even though the Pentagon had already drafted plans to intercept the ship.”
   Iran’s motive for undertaking such a risky and potentially embarrassing arms smuggling venture is simple – and has nothing to do with supporting this or that terrorist group. Like the rocket stockpile Israel allegedly destroyed in an air strike in Lebanon two weeks ago, this shipment was destined for only one purpose: to retaliate against Israel when (not “if”) Israel and/or the US launches a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
   It is no secret that Israel’s Iron Dome anti-missile system is not very effective against a barrage of the heavy, long range, M203 rockets launched simultaneously from several directions – Lebanon, Syria, Gaza and/or Sinai.
   So while I have no doubt that Iran will continue to try to smuggle these “game-changing” weapons in to Lebanon, Sinai and Gaza, I have full faith that Israel and the IDF, with like-minded friends, will continue to prevent that from happening. 
    Agree or disagree, that’s my opinion.

A Tale of Two Meetings

     According to reports in recent days, President Obama has decided to take a more direct role in the stalled Israeli-Palestinian “Peace Talks”. In that context the White house has scheduled two meetings. The first is with Prime Minister Netanyahu on March 3rd, and the second with PLO Chairman Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) later this month.

  Several events in the past week indicate that the possibility of a positive breakthrough or even a resumption of the direct talks is slim at best.
   First we have a lowering of expectations by all sides, with senior officials describing the chance of success at: “less than 50%”, “not good”, “impossible”, “very small”, etc.
   Then there was a meeting between Secretary of State John Kerry and Abu Mazen last week in Paris where Kerry presented his latest proposals based on discussions with the Israelis and some of the Palestinian’s demands. According to Palestinian reports Abu Mazen “went into a rage”, rejecting the proposals  as “insane”.
   Then we have the latest, and most difficult to understand episode. In a long interview with Geoffrey Goldberg of Bloomberg View, timed to be published just one day before his Oval Office meeting with Netanyahu this week, President Obama threatened Israel that it would “face a bleak future - one of international isolation and demographic disaster - if he (Netanyahu) refuses to endorse a U.S.-drafted framework agreement for peace with the Palestinians”
   The President went on to say that he “views Abbas as the most politically moderate leader the Palestinians may ever have.”
 Goldberg went on to write in Bloomberg: “It seemed obvious to me that the president believes that the next move is Netanyahu's. Obama said: "If there's something you know you have to do, even if it's difficult or unpleasant, you might as well just go ahead and do it, because waiting isn't going to help. When I have a conversation with Bibi, that's the essence of my conversation: If not now, when? And if not you, Mr. Prime Minister, then who? How does this get resolved?"
   According to David Horowitz in Israel News on March 3rd: “The timing of President Obama's interview with Jeffrey Goldberg could not have been any more deliberate - an assault on the prime minister's policies delivered precisely as Netanyahu was flying in to meet with him. At the very least, that might be considered bad manners, poor diplomatic protocol, a resounding preemptive slap in the face: I've just told the world you're leading your country to ruin, Mr. Prime Minister. Now, what was it you wanted to talk to me about?”
    Horowitz continues: “The president's comments reinforce years of grievance that have accumulated in Netanyahu's circles and some distance beyond, to the effect that the president ignores the inconsistencies, duplicities and worse of the Palestinian Authority and its leader Mahmoud Abbas, while placing exaggerated blame for the failure of peace efforts at the door of the Israeli government. The president's public display of disaffection will hardly encourage the Palestinians to adopt more flexible positions on such core issues as their demand for a "right of return" for millions of Palestinians to Israel.  The president's resort to an interview on the eve of their talks to issue near-apocalyptic warnings to Netanyahu is unlikely to bolster the prime minister's confidence in their alliance.”
    Between the Paris meeting and the Goldberg interview, it’s hard to see anything more than a hardening of positions on both the Israeli and the Palestinian sides.
   By the time you read this column it will be after Obama’s meeting with Netanyahu, and before the one with Abu Mazen.
   The post-meeting spin and commentary may try to create a positive perception for the outcome of the current effort to resolve the conflict.  However I believe that the differences remain unbridgeable, at least until the Palestinians get a leader who really wants peace with the Jewish State, and is willing and able to convince them to amend their 66 year old narrative, and their currently unrealistic expectations.
   And no, Mr. President: With all due respect – Mahmoud Abbas is not that leader.  
   Agree or disagree, that’s my opinion.

The Arik Sharon I Knew

    I first met Arik Sharon in 1958, at a neighborhood reception at Moshe Dayan’s house for Israel’s legendary national soccer goal keeper, Yankele Chodorov. When my parents and I walked in the door, Dayan took us into the crowded living room to meet Chodorov. As a ten year old who had spent my entire life in America, I had no idea what soccer was or why this man was so famous. 

   Neither was I very impressed when Dayan introduced us to a smiling young couple sitting nearby saying “and these are our neighbors Arik and Margalit Sharon, and their baby son Gur. Arik is a real hero of Israel.” Again – I had no idea what he was talking about. I just wanted to go out to the back yard to play with the other kids.
   The neighborhood we lived in, Zahalla, is a bedroom suburb of Tel-Aviv, built in 1949 for senior and mid-level IDF and Security Service officers. We lived on the corner of Yoav and Avner streets. Three houses from us on Avner Street was the home of Yitzhak and Leah Rabin. Moshe and Ruth Dayan lived two houses from us on Yoav Street. Across from them lived Motti and Pnina Hod (Commander of the Israeli Air force), and two more houses up were Arik and Margalit Sharon. In those days in Zahalla, everyone knew each other, and no-one ever locked their doors.
    Sharon frequently walked in the neighborhood with Margalit and Gur. As a young Scout leader I would see him especially on Saturday afternoons when the Scout troop was active. He would come to beam with pride watching Gur and his friends doing drills or whatever the activity was. He was always ready with advice and suggestions. 
   In the early 60’s, Sharon had it all: a meteoric military career as a revered courageous and innovative (if sometimes unorthodox and undisciplined) elite combat officer, a nice house in Zahalla, a wonderful and loving wife and a son he adored and prepared for leadership. There was no question in Sharon’s mind that Gur was going to be a future IDF Chief of staff and Prime Minister of Israel. And he told everybody!
   But then tragedy struck – twice. On May 2, 1962, Margalit was killed in a car accident on the road to Jerusalem. At 33, Arik Sharon became a widower with a 6 year-old son.
   A year later he married Margalit’s sister, Lilly.  Together they had two more sons – Omri and Gilad. 
   Then, in 1967, when Gur was 11-years-old, he was playing with a friend when an antique gun that was part of a collection Sharon kept in the house went off. Sharon was at home when the shot rang out. He ran to room and found his son bleeding in critical condition. Carrying Gur he ran into the street to stop a passing car. When they arrived at the hospital, Gur had already died in his arms. According to the investigation it was impossible to know which of the boys was actually holding the flint-lock pistol when it went off, after they stuffed matches and aluminum foil down the barrel.
   Sharon was never the same. I can’t forget the sight of Arik Sharon, scruffy, disheveled, and unshaven slowly rambling around Zahalla, staring down and muttering in a low voice. Ten years ago, in a rare statement about Gur’s death, he said:  “There is no cure for that kind of pain. At first, it hits you a thousand-fold in the moment. Yes, you say to yourself, what would have happened if I had done this or that? If I had done things differently…"
   During my regular and reserves service in the IDF our paths crossed briefly several times.
   My last significant encounter with Arik Sharon was in Lebanon following the 1982 war.     
   In the winter of 1982-83 I was commander of the IDF Spokesman Unit in Lebanon. The Israeli government had rented a large villa from a Saudi princess in Beirut to house my unit as well as offices of the Mossad and General Security Services (“Shin Bet”), together with senior representatives from the ministries of Defense, Foreign Affairs and Trade. We were, for all purposes, the “Israeli Embassy” in Lebanon.
   Sharon, as Defense Minister, frequently came with one or two aides to the villa for meetings with senior Lebanese officials as well as US and French military commanders. He often stayed for a night or two. In the evenings we would all sit around, smoking cigars and sipping Napoleon Brandy (brought to us by Tunik, the princess’s servant  who came with the villa), discussing world affairs or reminiscing on past experiences and adventures. At times Sharon would sort-of phase out and just stare at the small TV or focus on a spot on the wall.  
     One evening he asked me to join him on the porch. Outside he leaned against the porch railing and looked out towards the garden. After a few moments he asked quietly: “Tell me Gil, do you remember Gur?”  “Of course” I answered, “he was in my brother’s class”. After a long pause he took a deep breath, looked at me with sad, tired eyes and said: “you know that he would have been a great prime minister”, and without waiting for a response walked back into the house, smiling and booming: “Nu, so what did I miss?”
   Sharon will be remembered and studied for years as a brilliant combat officer, defender of Israel and the Jewish people, complex and controversial character, shrewd politician and stubborn “bulldozer”.  Streets, buildings and institutions will be named after him. He will be loved and hated, revered and vilified.
   But for me, Arik Sharon will always be the doting father of Gur, whom I first met that afternoon at Dayan’s home. 
   Agree or disagree, that’s my opinion.

Israel is Apartheid? “LOL”

     There are several phrases in English we use to express disbelief when we hear something so ridiculous that it defies all logic and reason. The basic one is the knee-jerk: “say what?!?” often accompanied by a facial expression somewhere between utter disbelief and having just bitten into a lemon. More sophisticated reactions are: “No way!”; “Are you kidding me?” or the less-than-kosher: “when pigs fly”. 

   Israelis use the Hebrew phrase “Hitschaktem otee” (the “ch” is guttural) – meaning: you made me laugh. Sort of like the computer-speak “LOL” – Laughing Out Loud.
  I found myself muttering this phrase often in the past few weeks with ever mounting anger and frustration over the well-orchestrated voices accusing Israel of being an “apartheid” state, like South Africa was until 1994.
   Israel has been called many things: innovative, brash, pioneering, unique, holy, caring, fascinating, historical, spiritual, annoying, enchanting, cultural, traditional, perplexing, altruistic, united, divided, protective, inclusive, apprehensive, generous, infuriating, magnanimous…etc., etc.   
   You can call Israel many things…but “apartheid” is not one of them! 
   These accusations are coming from the Palestinian, Arab and Iranian leadership, from Europe and North America, Asia, Africa, South America and even in the corridors of the UN.  They come from NGOs (Non-Government Organizations) as well as religious institutions.
   They form the basis of the growing BDS (Boycott, Divest and Sanction) movement and are the rallying cry for the new surge of anti-Semitism in Europe and South America.
   The widespread “Israel is Apartheid” offensive, culminating this week with a worldwide “Israel Apartheid Week” would perhaps be valid if the accusation was true. But it’s not true. It’s a lie.
    The Concise Encyclopedia definition of apartheid is: “(Afrikaans: “apartness” or “separateness”) Policy of racial segregation and political and economic discrimination against non-European groups in South Africa. The Group Areas Act of 1950 established residential and business sectors in urban areas for each “race” and strengthened the existing “pass” laws, which required nonwhites to carry identification papers. Other laws forbade most social contacts between those of European descent and others, authorized segregated public facilities, established separate educational standards, restricted each group to certain types of jobs, curtailed nonwhite labor unions, denied nonwhite participation in the national government, and established various black African “homelands”...
   Israel is being accused of practicing apartheid against Israeli Arabs and Palestinians. Not true. Here are some facts:

• 20% of the citizens of Israel are Arabs. The majority are Sunni Muslims. 
• They have equal legal, occupational, civil, residential, movement and business rights as the Jewish citizens.
• There are absolutely no restrictions on where Israeli Arabs can live, work, vacation or travel
• Many serve in the IDF 
• They are members of Israel’s parliament and serve as government ministers
• Salim Joubran, an Israeli Arab, is a permanent Justice on Israel’s Supreme Court
• Israeli Arabs serve as ambassadors and consul generals around the world
• The head of one of Israel’s largest hospitals is an Arab. 
• The President of Achva College at Ben Gurion University is a Bedouin.
• Arabs head University departments and are tenured professors.
• Israelis overwhelmingly chose an Arab woman on the “Next Top Model” reality TV show.
• The 2013 winner of Israel’s “The Voice” is an Arab female singer.
• Israeli Arab Miri Anwar Awad represented Israel in the 2009 Eurovision Song Contest, in Hebrew and Arabic. 
• Rana Raslan, a Sunni Moslem, was the 1999 Miss Israel, representing Israel in the Miss Universe pageant.
• All Arabs, including Palestinians living in the West Bank have unsegregated access to Israel’s medical facilities, beaches, parks and recreation facilities.
• Israeli Arabs, and many Palestinians and Arabs from other countries, have the same access to Israel’s Universities and Colleges as any Israeli or foreign student. 

I know that Israel is not perfect. The Jewish State is still a work in progress. But my answer to the ridiculous, unfounded, accusation of some arbitrary and widespread institutional practice of “Apartheid” against Israeli Arabs and West Bank Palestinians is: Hitschaktem otee!    
    Agree or disagree, that’s my opinion.

A Purim Thought: Is Iran the New Persia?

    "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it", wrote George Santayana (1863-1952). But does that mean that those who do remember history will not repeat it? Not necessarily. Two modern cases in point: The rebirth of Israel as the historic Jewish homeland after two thousand years of exile, and the re-emergence of Persia (Iran) as a potential empire for the first time since the fall of the Sassanid Empire to the Muslim invasion in 651.

   Lt. Col. (Res.) Dr. Rafael Ofek, an Israeli expert in the physics and technology of nuclear power, wrote this week in Israeldefence.com, “… even under the reign of the Shah Iran aspired for the status of a regional superpower, and made no attempt to conceal its aspirations. However, since the Khomeini revolution of 1979, Iran has become the flag bearer of Shia Islam worldwide, and has positioned itself as the sworn enemy of the USA and the West”. 
   To expand its power regionally, Iran created Hezbollah as a militia which is now the dominating force in Lebanon. It also allied with the Shia related Alawite regime in Syria. 
   Following the US pullout from Iraq, Iran absorbed that country into its ever growing sphere of influence, making sure that a pro-Iranian Shiite majority government is in power.
    But Iran wants more: It wants to control the oil and minerals of the Arabian Peninsula. 
  In an article published in the newspaper Makor Rishon last December, Mideast expert Dr. Mordechai Kedar told of a meeting a few years ago in Tehran between a Kuwaiti parliamentary delegation and current Iranian president Rouhani, then Chairman of the Iranian parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee. Rouhani made it clear to the Kuwaiti delegation that in his country’s opinion, the entire western coast of the Persian Gulf was Iranian sovereign territory that Iran will dominate when the time comes.
   Iran also plans to dominate Afghanistan. In a recent meeting in Tehran, Afghan President Hamid Karzai and Iranian President Rouhani signed an agreement to enhance “regional security” opposite the America’s efforts to persuade the Afghanis to agree to an extended Statement of Forces Agreement (SOFA). 
   What the Iranians really want is control of Afghanistan’s yet to be exploited vast deposits of oil and gas reserves, as well as rich deposits of various metals and minerals.
   According to Dr. Kedar, in 2006 Karzai rejected any attempt by Iran to intervene in Afghanistan. Today, however, in view of the fact that the US armed forces will pull out in about a year’s time, and his belief that the USA is about to abandon him to the Taliban, he feels he must yield to the empire-building ambitions of Tehran. No wonder Karzai is so far rejecting the agreement that would allow American military bases to continue to operate in Afghanistan.
  Dr. Kedar explained in his article why Tehran wishes to prevent Afghanistan from allowing foreign troops to remain on her soil. Firstly, Iran wishes to demonstrate that it is the “landlord” in central Asia and the Islamic world. In Iran’s view, driving the USA out of the region will be celebrated as a victory of Shia Islam over the infidels, including Sunni Islam led by Saudi Arabia. The other reason, according to Dr. Kedar is that US bases in Afghanistan will be used by American intelligence for monitoring communications and sending agents, especially against the Iranian nuke program.
  Dr. Ofek notes that terrorism has been a primary instrument employed by Tehran for the purpose of promoting its objectives around the world. While these activities focused primarily on “soft” Israeli targets, there were others, like the attempt in 2011 to assassinate the Saudi Arabian ambassador to the USA.
  But the “crown jewel” of the Iranian regime is the establishment of a pretentious technological infrastructure, with the emphasis placed on the nuclear program and the space program. The world has not been convinced yet that these programs are intended “for peaceful purposes”, as Tehran proclaimed. The Geneva agreement may slow down Iran’s nuclear weapon program, but it is reasonable to assume that once Iran’s economy has recovered, it will revert to its plans and speed up its military nuclear program.
   The weak resolve of the West in the recent Geneva agreement will just increase Iran’s appetite for dominating its neighbors. One country Iran is eying is Pakistan, with a sizable Shiite minority and a considerable nuclear arsenal which the Iranians would like to control before some of it is transferred to Saudi Arabia and other Sunni countries.
    As Dr. Ofek notes: “If the world fails to stop Iran, then in a few years’ time it will expand further and further, and we might, heaven forbid, once again witness a Persian Empire extending “from India even into Ethiopia” (Esther 1, 1), as in the days of king Ahasuerus (Xerxes)”.  Only this time with nukes – and no shortage of Hamans...
   It looks like our memory of the past is not preventing a repeat of it. 
    Agree or disagree, that’s my opinion.

Mideast Snapshot February - 2014

 “What’s going on over there?” is a question I’m asked daily – at work, at lunch meetings, at my grandkids’ games…even at the doctor’s office.

      The question is serious, and comes from a real concern. Everyone has ‘skin’ in the rapidly changing, often confusing and highly volatile developments in that region. We all know that one way or another, what happens in the Middle East will have a direct impact on us, our families and our future.
   So starting this week, from time to time this column will answer the question, and give a snapshot of the current status of various Mideast issues.
   Iran: The Geneva “agreement” of last November between Iran and the P5+1 powers morphed into the “JPA” (Joint Plan of Action) that was supposed to make sure that during a six month period of negotiating an end to its nuclear weapons program, Iran would halt all enrichment and weapon development activities in exchange for a “slight” easing of the US imposed economic sanctions. As of this week the sanctions are effectively gone and Iran’s economy is recovering, while the UN inspectors confirm that Iran is still enriching and stockpiling Uranium and is still constructing a heavy water reactor capable of producing weapons grade plutonium. The inspectors have not, as of this writing, been allowed into Iran’s secret nuclear weapon research and testing facility, even though this was agreed on in the JPA.
   Final agreement talks are scheduled to start on February 18 in Vienna. Iranian officials announced last week that they have no intention of giving up their nuclear program. Foreign minister Zarif said that the U.S. wanted Iran to give up major parts of its nuclear program but such demands won’t be carried out. “America has wishes and those wishes are unlikely to come true” he said.
   And to prove some point, president Rouhani is sending their whole “Northern Fleet” (one destroyer and one supply ship) “towards the US Atlantic coast”. Remember Peter Seller’s hilarious 1959 movie “The Mouse That Roared”?
   Egypt: Despite being outlawed, arrested and with its top leadership on trial in Cairo, the Muslim Brotherhood has gone underground and is regrouping. According to Egyptian officials, the MB is building a formidable military force with the help of seasoned jihadists from Libya, Iraq Afghanistan and Syria, and are currently attacking Egyptian security forces in the South and Sinai. 
   The Egyptian military has declared all-out war against the MB, but will probably keep it low until after the upcoming presidential election, expected within the next 60 days. At the moment all bets are on Field Marshall Abdel Fatah al-Assisi winning the election. This is good for Egypt, good for Israel, good for Middle East stability and good for the US. 
   Syria: The UN peace talks between the conflicting Sunni rebel groups and the Assad regime have failed. As intense fighting continues, the civilian casualty toll rises by hundreds a week – on both sides. The Syrian government is committing extreme atrocities including ethnic cleansing, destruction of whole villages, the kidnapping, torture and murder of children and the use of “barrel bombs” filled with nails shrapnel and ball bearings that are dropped with devastating effect on residential areas.
   The Sunni rebel forces are fighting on two fronts: against the regime and between themselves. All sides are getting supplies and reinforcements from outside of Syria – including radicalized US citizens who are fighting with the Jihadists, gaining combat and terrorism experience…
   Turkey: Under growing regional isolation, a declining economy, expanding civil unrest, and broad accusations of corruption at the highest levels, the Islamist government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan has decided to accept Israel’s explanation for the 2010 Mavi Marmara flotilla raid, take the compensation offered and renew full relations with Israel. With a nuclear Iran looming, and under pressure from the Turkish military, this is a logical and step for both countries.
    Israel: Even if Secretary of State John Kerry succeeds in presenting an acceptable framework for continuing peace talks with the Palestinians – three towering and unbridgeable obstacles prevent a final deal from being reached anytime in the near future:

1. The Muslim world’s carved-in stone, religion based absolute refusal to recognize Israel as the national homeland of the Jewish people 
2. The Palestinian’s insistence of keeping their “right of return” national narrative.
3. Israel’s ironclad pledge to never subcontract its security to a foreign military force.  

 So the answer to: “What’s going on over there” is…A lot. And it’s complicated, evolving and will probably change by the next snapshot. 
    Agree or disagree, that’s my opinion.

Peace Talks – Now the Threats

    Jumping out of a C130 Hercules troop carrier 1,200 feet above the sand dunes of Palmachim, just South of Tel-Aviv, is a unique experience. Near the target landing area, the red “get ready” light goes on and the side doors are opened. The first thing you experience is a rush of hot air and the deafening noise of the powerful turbo-prop engines.

   Standing in the open door like a ski-jumper on the ramp, when the light turns green you push and step forward, straight into the noisy and turbulent backdraft of the nearest engine, and are immediately thrown sideways, horizontally, beyond the tale of the plane. Within seconds you feel a slight jolt as the static rip-cord deploys your main chute.
   And suddenly, as you seem to be just hanging there, you hear…absolutely nothing. Not a sound. The plane is already miles away. You’re platoon is scattered in two lines of olive green parachutes hundreds of feet behind you.
   After checking that your chute is fully open you look down to find the landing spot.  At first it seems that you are not moving at all.  But within moments the ground seems to be coming up towards you. At first very slowly, then faster and faster, until in the last few seconds it’s rushing at you so fast that you barely have time to brace for the impact.
  I remembered this while learning about John Kerry’s new threat tactic.
  Six months ago he was led to believe that after 65 years of failed attempts, he could establish a two-state resolution to the Israel-Palestinian conflict by the end of 2014. One of the key benchmarks, directly connected to the next Israeli prisoner release, is next month, when an agreed “framework” for final negotiations must be in place.
   With every trial balloon of possible “framework” issues having been rejected, so far, by both the Palestinians and the Israelis, and the March deadline rapidly approaching, we can guess what the Secretary of State is feeling: that the deadline seems to be approaching at ever accelerating speed. The ground is rushing towards him.
   Otherwise it’s hard to understand the series of unveiled threats to both Israel and the Palestinian leadership made by Kerry in recent days.
   According to reliable Palestinian sources, a frustrated Kerry recently threatened Palestinian president Abu Mazen that he would meet the same fate as his predecessor, Yasser Arafat, if he turned down Washington’s proposals for peace with Israel. Abu Mazen reportedly stormed out of the room. The Palestinians pounced on this statement as “confirmation” that Arafat was “murdered by Israel”.
   In December Kerry implied that if a peace deal was not implemented then Israel would face a third bloody Intifada. At a security conference in In Munich last Saturday, Kerry said that the “Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not sustainable. It is illusionary. For Israel there is an increasing de-legitimization campaign that has been building up. People are very sensitive to it; there is talk of boycott and other kinds of things. Are we all going to be better with all of that?"
   That statement was celebrated in Europe and the Arab world as a US endorsement of the growing BDS (Boycott, Diverse and Sanction) movement, and in Israel as a direct US threat to its legitimacy and economy.
   In Middle East tradition, negotiations, even over small deals, frequently take a long time – measured in years and decades rather than weeks or months. Rigid timetables, deadlines and benchmarks rarely work (example: Assad’s failure to turn over Syria’s chemical weapons on time), neither do threats...at least not to Israel.
   The Israelis and Palestinians have known since the UN partition vote on November 29, 1947 that the eventual end result will be two states for two people. They also know that the negotiations may continue, with different leaders and various interim agreements and accommodations, another 67 years or longer.
   Both sides are rejecting, each in their own way, the threats and pressures of a super-power that is actively and rapidly disengaging from the Middle East.
   The perception of the “ground rushing up” is real…but different for each party. For Israel – it’s the immediate probability of Iran having nuclear weapons and the region’s growing instability. For the Palestinians – it’s the potential loss of their perpetual and highly lucrative refugee status. For John Kerry and the White House, according to most US and Middle East analysts – it’s the upcoming 2014 and 2016 elections.
    Kerry made three jumps from three planes – Peace talks, Iran nukes and Syrian chemical weapons. Each time his parachuting technique was by-the-book. But each time the green light went on and he took that giant step into the backdraft, Kerry’s pilot had been way off course and off timing. Each of the three meticulously planned drop zones was missed by miles. The missions, so far, are failing.
   Just because the ground is rushing towards you doesn’t mean you’re at the right place – or that threats and/or bribes will get you where you want to be.     
   Agree or disagree, that’s my opinion.