The OTHER Iran Deal

By now I'm sure that most of you are sick and tired of reading, seeing and hearing the expert political, military, and scientific analysis about the so-called "Iran Deal".

Everyone from the White House spin-masters (Obama on Monday in Ethiopia: "99% of the world agrees it's a good deal"), to talking heads on every media station, have opined as to the heavenly virtues or catastrophic negatives of it (mostly the latter).

My personal negative opinion was confirmed during John Kerry's Congressional testimony, when new elements and "secret understandings" were disclosed, and was reinforced by statements from Iranian leaders after the July 14 announcement. Here are just a few:

1. The agreement is not, and never will be signed. This is why the US rushed to get it "approved" by the United Nations Security Council, thus giving a purely verbal "understanding" some pretense of legitimacy.
2. The promise of "robust anytime, anywhere inspections" is gone.
3. Iran keeps its already enriched stockpiles and bomb parts.
4. All military facilities, including the trigger and bomb-assembly plant in Parchin, are off limits to the IAEA.
5. All facilities are off limits to Americans.
6. All centrifuges remain intact though a few thousand will be temporarily unplugged.
7. With Russia, China and the Europeans already signing huge deals with Iran accepting the soon-to-be-freed $150 billion as loan collateral, the sanctions no longer exist, and cannot be "snapped back".

But the most shocking revelation was that Kerry apparently accepted the Iranian negotiators "solemn word and guarantee" that Iran: "Never had in the past, does not have in the present, or plans to have in the future...any nuclear weapons development or acquisition plan". Seriously? The whole unsigned verbal agreement is based on the "solemn word" of the Iranians?!??

As the Iranian leadership ecstatically tells mass rallies that chant "death to America and Israel", just how easily they led on and hoodwinked a naïve president who was so desperate for a deal at any cost that he gave them everything they wanted without them conceding anything, regional leaders are listening with growing contempt, mistrust and lack of respect for the US.

The spin-dive of American status, prestige and credibility in the Middle East has created a leadership vacuum that is already being filled.      

This brings me to the "Other Deal"...

Background:

1. Polls show that a majority of Russians view the US as their #1 enemy.
2. At his recent confirmation hearing in Congress, to become the next Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Joe Dunford, said he believes Russia poses the biggest threat to U.S. national security, greater than ISIS.
3. Two bloody civil wars are now raging in the Middle East:

• The war in Syria, where Iran supports President Assad and Saudi Arabia supports the rebels.
• The war in Yemen, where Iran supports the Shiite Houthis and Saudi Arabia supports the ousted Sunni regime.

According to Oded Granot, a highly respected Middle East and Arab-world analyst, over the past few weeks Vladimir Putin has been holding a series of talks with the Saudis, the Iranians and Assad of Syria, to end both these major conflicts. His proposal:

• Iran will stop supporting Assad of Syria and the Houthis in Yemen.
• The Saudis will stop supporting the rebels in Syria.
• Russia will guarantee the security of the Assad regime, the Sunni Yemenite government and the border between Yemen and Saudi Arabia.
• Both cash-flush Saudi Arabia and Iran will purchase upgraded Russian weapons systems in long-term contracts.

According to Granot the Saudis have already agreed to the deal and the Iranians have promised an answer "soon". Israel is in the loop.

Whether this "Other Deal" succeeds fully or just partially this is already a big win for Putin, who not only is inking large, multi-year cash contracts for Russia's faltering military industries, but also is reestablishing Russia, and himself, as the main superpower in the region at the expense of the waning credibility of a perceived weak and toothless US, AKA "The Enemy"

And who knows...Putin may even "steal" the Nobel Peace Prize Kerry has been reaching for since the failed "Peace Talks" restarted.

One thing is for sure - the flawed July 14 Iranian nuke deal did something that has not been done since after WWI - it has redrawn the Middle East map.

The War on Israel's Doorstep

For the last four years, an ever expanding war has been raging in the Sinai Peninsula between Islamic Jihadist rebel groups and the Egyptian government. What started as clashes between various relatively small and diverse groups supported by local Bedouin tribes has, in recent months, accelerated to a full blown war with large scale military formations that threatens not only Egypt but Israel as well.

Background:

Sinai is a large triangular peninsula in Egypt about 23,000 square miles in area, situated between the Mediterranean Sea and the Red Sea and is the only part of Egypt located in Asia, as opposed to Africa, with a population of approximately 1,400,000, mostly semi-nomadic Bedouins.

The Sinai Peninsula has remained a part of Egypt from the First Dynasty of ancient Egypt (3100 BC) until the 21st century. In periods of foreign occupation, the Sinai was, like the rest of Egypt, also occupied and controlled by foreign empires, like the Ottoman Empire (1517-1867) and Great Britain (1882-1956). In 1956 Israel invaded and occupied Sinai during the Suez Crisis, and during the Six-Day War of 1967. On October 6, 1973, Egypt launched the Yom Kippur War to retake the peninsula, which was the site of fierce fighting between Egyptian and Israeli forces. By 1989, as a result of the Israel-Egypt Peace Treaty of 1979, Israel had withdrawn from all of the Sinai Peninsula.

In recent years, Sinai has been the site of several terror attacks against tourists, the majority of which were Egyptian. Investigations have shown these were mainly motivated by a resentment of the poverty faced by many Bedouin in the area. Attacking the tourist industry was viewed as a method of damaging the industry so that the government would pay more attention to their situation.

Unrest has become more prevalent in the area since the 2011 Egyptian Revolution. Here are just a few incidents in 2015:

• January 29: Militants from the Sinai Province militant group launched a series of attacks on army and police bases in Arish using car bombs and mortars. The attacks, which occurred in more than six different locations, resulted in 32 confirmed deaths including army personnel and civilians.
• February 6: Egyptian security forces attacked the Sinai Province group, killing 47 Islamic militants.
• March 10: A suicide attack on a police barracks using a water tanker was stopped after security forces opened fire on the water tanker causing it to explode before it could get into the barracks. One civilian near the scene was killed and two others wounded in the blast, alongside dozens of wounded policemen.
• April 2: an attack on an army checkpoint resulted in the death of 15 soldiers, 2 civilians and 15 attackers. As a response to the attack, the Egyptian army launched an operation the following day allegedly killing 100 militants.
• April 8: Eleven civilians were killed in Sheikh Zuweid when an unidentified rocket-propelled grenade hit their homes.
• April 12: Six soldiers were killed when their armored vehicle was bombed in North Sinai. On the same day, a separate attack on a police station in Arish resulted in the death of 5 policemen and 1 civilian. The attack on the station was carried out by a suicide bomber using a bomb-laden vehicle. The militant group Ansar Beit Al-Maqdis (now Sinai Province") claimed responsibility for the attacks.
• May 16: Three Egyptian judges and their driver were killed when gunmen opened fire on their vehicle in North Sinai. The attack came hours after a Cairo court issued a preliminary death sentence against former president Mohamed Morsi and 105 other defendants.

Last year the largest Jihadist group in Sinai, Ansar Bait al-Maqdis swore allegiance to Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi, the self-anointed Caliph and head of DAESH (ISIS), and proclaimed themselves as the "Sinai Province" Of the Islamic State. Security officials say militants based in Libya have established ties with "Sinai Province".

• July 1, 2015: "Sinai Province" militants launched one of the largest attacks since the insurgency begun in 2011, on multiple Egyptian army checkpoints in the Sinai Peninsula, killing 64 soldiers. The attack also targeted the Sheikh Zuweid police station. Reinforcements from the Second Army stationed in Ismailia have been deployed to Sheikh Zuweid, and F-16 fighter jets are targeting militants in the city. Militants have reportedly killed several civilians who refused to allow them onto their rooftops to target security forces.
• July 4: A shell struck a house in Sheikh Zuweid, killing a woman and her two children. On the same day, a roadside bomb targeting army and police vehicles killed a five-year-old child.
• On July 15, twenty militants were killed as security forces repelled an attack on a security checkpoint in North Sinai.
• On July 16, "Sinai Province" militants attacked an Egyptian navy patrol ship near the border with Israel and the Gaza Strip. The patrol ship was hit by a guided missile. The Egyptian military confirmed the incident. The attack is considered the first maritime attack of DAESH (ISIS) and its allied militant groups.

With the merger of DAESH (ISIS) and the Sinai Province we are seeing disturbing developments along Israel's Southern borders:

• The use of large, disciplined, well trained and well commanded heavily armed battalion and brigade formations in the fight against the Egyptian army in Sinai.
• A capable naval commando force.
• Heavy ISIS infiltration in Gaza
• Rocket firing into Israel from Sinai.
• A direct threat to Elat and the Western access road to the city.

Israel is, of course, working with its peace partner Egypt to deal with their common enemy. I am glad that after a two year hiatus, the US administration is also again providing democratically elected president Al-Assisi with the weapons and tools he needs to fight this vicious, Islamist, anti-American insurgency.

The Flawed Nuclear Deal

On Tuesday, July 15, we woke to the news that after thirty years of on and off negotiations with Iran to stop it from acquiring nuclear weapons, the five permanent members of the Security Council - US, Russia, China, UK and France, together with Germany (the P5+1) have reached a "deal".

President Obama said on Tuesday:"Every pathway to a nuclear weapon is cut off," claiming it provides for extensive inspections. "This deal is not built on trust. It is built on verification."

Prime Minister Netanyahu asserted that the agreement is a "stunning historic mistake." He went on to say: "I spoke with US President Barack Obama and expressed to him Israel's two major concerns after having examined the agreement, 

  1. The agreement allows Iran to develop extensive capabilities which will enable it to arm itself with nuclear weapons, whether that be in 10 or 15 years at the end of the agreement's term, or if Iran violates the agreement before then.

  2. The agreement pumps hundreds of billions of dollars into Iran's terrorist and war machine, a machine that is turned against us and others in the region."

Here are highlights of the "deal", as described by senior US officials:

• Iran will remove two-thirds of its infrastructure at the Fordo enrichment center. The center will become a nuclear research center; no uranium enrichment will be allowed there for 15 years.
• The Arak heavy water reactor will be converted to produce zero weapons-grade plutonium.
• Iran must comply with nuclear reduction and oversight provisions before sanctions relief begins. There is no set date.
• Economic and financial sanctions and the majority of sectorial sanctions and access to "over $100 billion" in frozen cash would be relieved for Iran on the first day it's determined it has met initial requirements.
• Iran will reduce its enriched uranium stockpile from 12,000 kg to 300 kg. Iran can dilute the enriched uranium or export it.
• Iran cannot build new enrichment facilities for 15 years.
• If international inspectors want to visit a site, they submit a request to Iran. Iran has 14 days to grant it. If not, the Joint Commission (P5+1/Iran/E.U.) would have a mechanism of 10 days to determine the outcome. (So much for "anytime/anywhere inspections" GE)
• The U.S. could halt sanctions relief if it believed Iran was in violation.
• Human rights and terrorism sanctions remain, as do sanctions prohibiting Americans and U.S. businesses from conducting business with Iran.
• The U.N. will lift the conventional arms embargo after five years and the embargo for missiles after eight years and if the International Atomic Energy Agency certifies Iran is not violating the agreement.

According to top Israeli analysts, while this "deal", if fully implemented by Iran, will probably delay it from building nuclear weapons for about a decade, has several key gaping holes:

1. No restrictions on Iran developing advanced centrifuges - thus shortening "break out" time if or when the deal falls through.
2. The "inspection request" clause must list the site and suspicious activities, giving Iran time to cleanse it while delaying the inspections via the "mechanisms".
3. Attrition. According to the detailed agreement the mechanisms for addressing and verifying Iranian suspected breaches are complicated, convoluted, and could take months to resolve.
4. Fordo. Despite previous US promises to Israel and the Gulf states, this heavily fortified, deep underground facility will remain intact and continue to operate and enrich Uranium, albeit at a low 3.5% level.
5. Missiles There are no limitations on Iran continuing to develop, construct, test and deploy long range, nuclear capable missiles.
6. Timetable. The agreement is vague as to whether Iran can, if it wants, resume a full scale nuclear weapons program after the 10 or 15 year timetable.

And while the "deal" says that the current Plutonium producing Heavy Water core of the reactor at Arak will be dismantled and replaced with a Light Water core, there is no mention of other undeclared Heavy Water reactors Iran may already have...

If this deal really is based on "verifications", and provides for "extensive inspections", as the president said Tuesday, and that sanction relief will really start, as the US senior officials promised: "only on the day it's determined it (Iran) has met initial requirements"...then maybe it could work.

I just don't see that happening, not just days after the elected president of Iran smilingly led a massive rally in Teheran, personally calling over the loudspeaker "Death to America" and "Death to Israel" while applauding the burning of the American and Israeli flags.

And having followed Iran and Middle East dynamics for over 40 years now, I do not believe that any current or future Iranian leader will, for a fraction of a second, ever give up Iran's mahdist, jihadist, cataclysmic driven obsession with possessing and deploying nuclear weapons.  

I'm glad Bibi clarified on Tuesday that "Israel is not bound by this agreement".

Back to the Rose Garden?

Just over three months ago President Obama stood in the Rose Garden of the White house and formally announced, in front of the world's TV cameras: "Today, the United States, together with our allies and partners, has reached a historic understanding with Iran, which, if fully implemented, will prevent it from obtaining a nuclear weapon. I am convinced that if this framework leads to a final, comprehensive deal, it will make country, our allies, and our world safer".

At that time I wrote here that even assuming everything the president detailed is actually in the final "deal", the wildly optimistic predictions about the outcome he outlined just didn't make sense back in April. They make even less sense this week. Here's a summary of my April column:

According to the president's assertions in the Rose Garden:

• The proposed framework would "cut off every pathway that Iran could take to develop a nuclear weapon".

Analysis: Since Iran is currently (back in April) about 6 weeks from "breakout", and the "framework" does not address the bulk of its stockpiled enriched Uranium, its "pathway to a nuclear weapon" is, in fact, already a wide open highway

• Iran agreed to a robust and intrusive inspections and transparency regime.

Analysis:  Not according to top Iranian leaders who claim "national sovereign rights"

• "This deal is not based on trust. It's based on unprecedented verification".

Analysis:  Only IF the IAEA is allowed unannounced visits spot-check and verify, including at yet undisclosed locations...

• The core of its heavy water reactor at Arak will be dismantled and replaced

Analysis: Not according to the Iranians (see below)

• Iran's installed centrifuges will be reduced by two thirds.

Analysis:

According to the Iranians the old generation IR1 centrifuges will be replaced by thousands of the new and much more efficient IR3 and IR4 models, some of which are already assembled on site.

• Iran will no longer enrich uranium at its underground Fordo facility.

Analysis:

But the centrifuges will continue to operate and not be dismantled...and inspections will be limited to the "civilian research facilities"

• Iran will not enrich uranium with its advanced centrifuges for at least 10 years.

Analysis:

Maybe not at the currently known locations, but what about the yet undisclosed military facilities...?

• The vast majority of Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium will be neutralized.

Analysis: This was promised over three years ago. The world is still waiting for the first batch to be "treated".

• International inspectors will have unprecedented access to Iranian nuclear facilities and the entire supply chain that supports them.

Analysis:

Iranians: "Only we will decide what they can inspect and when. 

In return for full Iranian compliance to all the above, the President said, "the international community has agreed to provide Iran with relief from certain sanctions". "If Iran violates the deal", he went on, "sanctions can be snapped back into place."

It's amazing how far the President had moved the Iranian nuclear goalposts since he said, at a March 6, 2012 press conference: "...we will not countenance Iran getting a nuclear weapon...my policy is to prevent them from getting a nuclear weapon -- because if they get a nuclear weapon that could trigger an arms race in the region, it would undermine our non-proliferation goals, it could potentially fall into the hands of terrorists."

The March-April talks in Switzerland did not result in a deal or even a framework for one.

All one has to do is look at the conflicting "summary" papers put out after the Rose Garden speech by the State Department (1318 words in English), and the Iranian government (512 words in Persian), that offer totally contradictory understandings of what was agreed on in Luzon in April.

According to Amir Taheri in the New York Post on April 4th: "The American statement claims that Iran has agreed not to use advanced centrifuges, each of which could do the work of 10 old ones. The Iranian text, however, insists that "on the basis of solutions found, work on advanced centrifuges shall continue."

Taheri adds that: "The American text claims that Iran has agreed to dismantle the core of the heavy water plutonium plant in Arak. The Iranian text says the opposite. The plant shall remain and be updated and modernized."

The State Department paper talks about "phased sanctions relief" linked to Iranian compliance, while Iran claims, both in its official summary paper and in public announcements over the weekend, that the sanctions would be "immediately terminated."

It is now clear that three months ago we were nowhere near "a historic understanding with Iran"...as we were led to believe in the Rose Garden in April. Accelerating belligerent and demanding statements by Iranian leaders since April have not contributed.

As of this writing I'm waiting to see if this week's Friday deadline for an agreement generates a new Rose Garden speech. Personally, I'm not very optimistic.

The Unnecessary Flotilla

This past Sunday, eighteen professional pro-Palestinian international activists made a pathetic attempt to "run" the Israeli security sea blockade of the Gaza strip with four small yachts, in order to "bring much needed medical supplies to the "poor Gazans suffering under the brutal and oppressive Israeli occupation".

Unlike a similar attempt in May, 2010 (the Mavi Marmara incident), this time the lead boat, the Swedish flagged Marianne, stopped in international waters when it was ordered to do so by Israeli naval commandos from the Shayetet 13 special forces, agreed to be peacefully boarded and was towed to the navy base at the port of Ashdod.

The other three small boats turned around and returned to Greece.

In Ashdod the activists aboard the "Marianne" were questioned then handed over to the immigration authorities who took them to Ben Gurion airport to be expelled. They were told that they are now blacklisted and could never return to Israel.

The Israeli citizens on board, including Joint Arab List Member of Knesset Basel Ghattas - were handed over to the Israeli police and Knesset authorities.

Prime Minister Netanyahu praised "the determined and effective detention of the passengers who tried to enter Gaza's shores illegally. This flotilla is nothing but a display of hypocrisy and lies, which only helps the terrorist organization Hamas and ignores all the atrocities in our region."

Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon added: "This flotilla was not a humanitarian one and was not concerned for anyone's welfare. The participants' desire was to continue the campaign of Israel's de-legitimization. This is part of the spectacle of hypocrisy and lies of various bodies in the world, which prefer to strengthen and support a ruthless terrorist organization like Hamas. There is no siege on Gaza, and Israel is the only entity in the region that allows a constant entry of various commodities and the carrying out of humanitarian projects. But we have no intention of allowing any entity to smuggle weapons that will be directed against us."

According to Israeli press reports, The Prime Minister's Office on Sunday published a letter to be given to the activists upon their arrival. "It looks like you took a wrong turn," read the letter. "Perhaps you meant to sail to a place not far from here - Syria. Where Assad's regime is slaughtering its people on a daily basis, and this is done with the support of Iran's murderous regime."

As for the false premise that there is a shortage of basic goods, food, construction material, medicine, etc., here are statistics from only one day's crossing of Gazans to and from Israel, and transfer of goods into Gaza.

On June 14, 2015:

• 1,178 Gazans entered Israel via the Erez Crossing for business or medical reasons.
• 851 Gazans crossed back into the strip from Israel
• Six ambulances transferred patients into Israel
• 544 trucks carrying 16,982 tons of goods entered Gaza
• 183 tons of gas for domestic use
• 225 thousand liters of oil
• 114 thousand liters of Benzene (for transportation)
• 71 thousand liters of heating fuel.

So as anyone can clearly see from the above, and from the fact that there is not one Israeli, soldier or civilian, anywhere in the Gaza Strip...It's clear that:

1. Gaza is not "Occupied by Israel"
2. Israel is bending over backward to provide the Gazans with every basic humanitarian and medical need they have or request.
3. The Israeli and Egyptian coastal security blockades are to prevent smuggling of terrorists, weapons and missiles into Gaza.

This "flotilla" was simply an unnecessary publicity stunt to make Israel look bad...and nothing else.