It’s called “The Arson Intifada”

Haifa -When we bought our apartment on the 10^th floor of a new high-rise residential building in Tirat Carmel, less than a mile South of Israel’s port city of Haifa, we knew that the view from the North-facing balcony would be amazing.

About half a mile to the North we see Haifa, and its suburbs sprawling up the slopes of Mt. Carmel.A few hundred yards to the East we have a beautiful view of the Carmel Mountain range, sloping down to the edge of Tirat Carmel.

And best of all – just a few hundred yards to the West is the Mediterranean Sea, that every evening blesses us with a stunning, bright red spectacle as the sun slowly sets into the water.

Yes, the view is amazing, but these past few days it was also frightening…we had front row seats to what is now being called the “Arson Intifada”.

We watched as the wild-fires wreaked havoc in the Haifa suburbs just 1,200 feet up the hills to our East. The flames, burning homes and trees alike, lit up the sky.

From time to time the strong, dry, non-stop winds from the East blew sparks down the hillside in our general direction, setting a few trees and bushes on fire on the mountainside. Within minutes two firefighting planes swooped in dumping seawater and red fire-retardant chemicals, extinguishing the fires and soaking the surrounding area.

Since the wind was blowing to the Northwest, away from our building, we were never really in danger. 

But not everyone in the area was so lucky. As the wind driven flames got nearer to the beautiful and heavily populated hilltop suburbs, the police ordered “immediate” evacuation of over 70,000 residents from 11 neighborhoods including: Danya, Romema, and Ramat Sapir. Whole families ran to escape the fires with literally nothing but the clothes they were wearing. Police and firefighters then risked their lives to make sure no-one remained, and to personally evacuate invalid residents of a retirement home, just minutes ahead of the flames. 

The good news is that as of this writing, thanks to the amazing efforts of the Israeli police, firefighters and IDF soldiers, there has been no loss of life and minimum injuries. 

The sad news is that many of those who evacuated returned yesterday and today only to find that their homes and all their belongings, including pictures, computers, furniture and clothing are gone. 

In a preliminary report, Haifa city officials said yesterday that the fire damaged between 600-700 homes, leaving over 527 uninhabitable and 37 completely destroyed.

But the fires were widespread around the country. While the Carmel fire was the biggest, simultaneous blazes broke out around the country over a 48-hour period, with extensive loss of property and afforestation in Judea and Samaria, the road to Jerusalem, and the Galilee.

So how did it happen?

More than any other month, November has always been prone to fires in Israel. It’s when the strong, warm and dry wind from the East (known as the “Sharqia”) blows across the country. Since this year the rains are late, the forests and fields are bone dry - creating perfect conditions for wildfires.

To start a deadly fire all a terrorist has to do is set fire to some brush to the east of a forest and/or community and let the wind take over. As of right now, the police and fire department have determined that at least 30% of all the fires over the past 5 days were started on purpose with the intent to cause as much death and destruction as possible.

It’s not yet clear if this was organized and/or whether it was incited on social media. 37 suspects have been detained on suspicion of arson or incitement (Palestinians, Israeli Arabs and one Israeli Jew).

Here is the latest summary as of this writing:

·        650 fires – at least 1/3 suspected as arson

·        2,500 firefighters including 12 from the Palestinian Authority and 69 from Cypress

·        3,000 IDF soldiers

·        Firefighting aircraft from Israel, Egypt, Greece, Cypress, Turkey and the USA

·        1.5 million tons of seawater and retardant dropped during 480 sorties.

·        Over 560 buildings destroyed

·        1600 people left homeless

·        0 casualties

·        133 injured (1 seriously)

 

Will the fires continue next week? Now that might need a miracle since:

a)   The Sharqia wind is dying down and shifting

b)   The forecast for later this week calls for heavy showers all over

  

Will this be an ongoing new phase in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?

I doubt it:

1.   Israeli authorities now suspect that some of the fires may have been of criminal origin and only a few linked to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

2.   The Palestinian leadership has come out strongly against arson that destroys “their” homeland.

3.   They sent 4 manned fire-engines to assist.

4.   Social media is heavily monitored here with good cooperation between Israel and the PA.

5.   Israel has made it clear that the maximum punishment for arson without casualties is 20 years.

There still may be a few outbreaks, but I think that we’ve seen the last of this “Arson Intifada” …at least until next November.

President Trump and the Middle East

Haifa, Israel -  Initial reactions in the Middle East to Donald Trump’s election have ranged from positive and cautiously optimistic (Israel, Egypt, Jordan, parts of the Saudi family, the United Arab Emirates, etc.), to outright disbelief and borderline panic (Iran, Qatar, parts of the Saudi family, the Palestinians, Morocco, the Muslim Brotherhood, etc.).

Most analysts attribute the reactions to two main factors:

1. Statements made by candidate Trump during the campaign about support for Israel on the one hand and possible US isolationism on the other.

2. A widespread belief throughout the Muslim world that a president Clinton would be “very sympathetic” to their interests, causes and business affairs thanks to exceptionally large donations to the Clinton Family Foundation, and the fact that Huma Abedin, who grew up in Saudi Arabia and has close ties family to the Muslim Brotherhood, would have had unfettered access and influence in the Oval Office.

As Trump’s inner circle begins to take shape the Israelis are happy with his assumed choice for Ambassador to Israel – his senior advisor David Friedman, who said in an interview this week that: “Trump believes that everyone in Israel - from people on the right to people on the left – want peace. No one wants their children to continue to be killed in wars”, adding that in any negotiations, with the Palestinians: “Trump will let Israel lead…he won’t force Israel.”

And while there is initial concern with the choice of Stephen Bannon as chief strategist because of alleged past anti-Semitic comments, commentators here observe that though he is a strong supporter of Israel, he will be involved mainly in domestic policy (“cleaning the swamp”). Trump said that Bannon and Reince Priebus (incoming chief of staff) would work "as equal partners to transform the federal government."

Trump’s possible foreign policy doctrine, especially regarding the Middle East, is a mixed bag. I tend to agree with senior analyst Ron Ben Yishai, who wrote this week in Ynet that “Trump and the Russians will agree to fight the Islamic State together, but Trump will let the Russians help Bashar Assad win.

This means that the radical Shiite axis led by Iran, with Russian aid and defense, will tighten its grip and its strategic abilities in the Middle East in general, and particularly in the ‘Shiite spectrum’. This is very bad for the State of Israel and it is also bad for the Arab Gulf states (which supported Clinton).”        

Regarding Iran, Trump will probably not cancel the nuclear agreement. However over here they feel strongly that it’s possible that he will accept Israel’s requests to tighten the intelligence supervision on Iran and to respond to any violation on its part with serious sanctions and/or military action.

According to Ben Yishai, the Trump administration and Congress will “also generously accept Israel’s arming requests so that the IDF would be able to respond with all its might in case Iran makes a breakthrough towards a nuclear bomb.”

As for the “Peace Talks” Analysts here agree that, the two-state-for-two-people formula will likely enter a deep freeze for a long time, at least until there is a leadership change with the Palestinians. As I mentioned above, Trump will probably not try to impose any solution or even peace negotiations, certainly not based on Israeli concessions only.

As of this writing, we’re still waiting to find out who the Secretary of State will be, and if that person will have the skills to reestablish respect for, and confidence in the United States as a world leader to be trusted and respected in a very volatile Middle East… 

I hope so.

Will Retaking of Mosul End ISIS?

Haifa, Israel -   As I write this column on Tuesday about 9 AM Dallas time, I’m watching reports from European and Middle East sources about the beginning of the attack to retake the Iraqi city of Mosul from ISIS.

Under heavy American air strikes on targets in and around the city, some 15,000 elite Iraqi troops, together with U.S. trained Kurdish Peshmerga fighters and Turkish forces have started to enter the city from the North and East.

The U.S. military estimates ISIS has up to 5,000 fighters inside Mosul and between 1,500 and 2,500 in a defensive belt around the city.

Both the city and periphery have been heavily fortified since ISIS captured it two and a half years ago. Networks of hidden tunnels crisscross Mosul and many buildings, schools and hospitals have been mined and booby-trapped.

Hundreds of the estimated 1.5 million remaining inhabitants have been locked in booby-trapped buildings that either will be hit by American airstrikes or coalition artillery, or be blown up by ISIS blaming the U.S. for the carnage. Hundreds of others were bussed in from the periphery just yesterday and forced to sit in cages and enclosures in city squares as human shields.

Local media report that one day after Iraqi Prime minister Haider al-Abadi appeared on state TV to order ISIS, or the Islamic State to give up its positions, troops opened fire with artillery, tanks and machine guns on the ISIS positions on the edge of the city.

"They have no choice. Either they surrender or they die," Abadi said.

The ISIS fighters responded with guided anti-tank missiles and small arms to block the anti-ISIL coalition's advance on Tuesday.

Interestingly, today the Iraqi satellite TV network, Al Sumaria, reported that ISIS suddenly stopped referring to Mosul as the capital of its caliphate through its news media outlets, probably to minimize public perceptions about the imminent “liberation” of Mosul.

Abadi, a Shiite and Iranian puppet, dressed up in military uniform and promised that in the battle for Mosul they will “eliminate” the ISIS leadership.

It’s known that Isis head Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has spent most of the past two years in Mosul but there is some info that he recently fled to Syria and is probably hiding in the other ISIS “capital”, Rakah.

There are also persistent rumors that he may have been fatally poisoned recently and is being kept in the fridge…to surface as a burned and mangled holy “Martyr” in the aftermath of a U.S. strike.

But anybody who thinks that killing al-Baghdadi and thousands of his fighters will destroy ISIS is suffering from the same naïve delusion that argued that killing Osama Bin Laden would destroy al-Qaeda.

Just like al-Qaeda today is stronger, bigger smarter, better equipped and more dangerous to the world than it was eight years ago, ISIS after al-Baghdadi’s demise will regroup, rebrand and continue to use social media to recruit new volunteer “martyrs” to attack U.S. interests and citizens worldwide. It’s an intoxicating ideological “adventure” that cannot be stopped by merely taking back cities or killing its leaders.

I’m sure that if “collateral damage” is kept reasonably low, there will be a political “victory lap” in Washington after Mosul is retaken from ISIS. As will no doubt happen if Rakah is liberated.

 
I just hope that nobody crows that “ISIS is destroyed!”. That would be disingenuous, deceitful and misleading…no matter what was promised!