The Iran Nuke "Deal", One Year Later

Exactly two weeks ago, on July 14, the world hardly noticed that a year had gone by since the announcement that the P5+1 negotiation team (USA, Great Britain, Russia, China, France and Germany) had reached an “deal” with Iran. 

We were told by the Obama administration that the “JCPOA” (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) was guaranteed to prevent Iran from building or acquiring nuclear weapons for at least 15 years by “blocking all pathways” to achieving this. We were told that the world is “safer”.

I was sceptic. After reading the published US version of the JCPOA on the State Dept. website, which is different from the Iranian one, and learning about “secret letters” exchanged between the US and Iranian negotiators, I came to the conclusion that it was a bad deal and wrote the following in this column a year ago:

My personal negative opinion was confirmed during John Kerry’s Congressional testimony, when new elements and “secret understandings” were disclosed, and was reinforced by statements from Iranian leaders after the May 14 announcement. Here are just a few of them:

1. The agreement is not, and never will be signed. This is why the US rushed to get it “approved” by the United Nations Security Council, thus giving a purely verbal “understanding” some pretense of legitimacy.

2. The promise of “robust anytime, anywhere inspections” is gone.

3. Iran keeps its already enriched stockpiles and bomb parts.

4. All military facilities, including the trigger and bomb-assembly plant in Parchin, are off limits to the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency).

5. All facilities are off limits to Americans.

6. All centrifuges remain intact though a few thousand will be temporarily unplugged.

7. With Russia, China and the Europeans already signing huge deals and with Russia accepting the soon-to-be-freed $150 billion as loan collateral, the sanctions no longer exist, and cannot be “snapped back”.

But the most shocking revelation was that Kerry apparently accepted the Iranian negotiators “solemn word and guarantee” that Iran: “Never had in the past, does not have in the present, or plans to have in the future…any nuclear weapons development or acquisition plan”. Seriously? The whole unsigned verbal agreement is based on the “solemn word” of the Iranians?!??

As the Iranian leadership ecstatically tells mass rallies that chant “death to America and Israel”, just how easily they led on and hoodwinked a naïve president who was so desperate for a deal at any cost that he gave them everything they wanted without them conceding anything, regional leaders are listening with growing contempt, mistrust and lack of respect for the US.

That was then…

Today, one year after the much heralded, and still unsigned so-called “Iran Nuke Deal” was announced, the UN’s IAEA and the intelligence agencies of the P5+1 countries admit that they have no knowledge as to what nuclear weapons development Iran did in the past (which it is obligated to disclose), nor what it has today or what it’s secretly working on.

Despite getting almost full sanctions relief, Iran has violated the JCPOA (and UN Security Council resolutions) several times. Its leaders still demonize the West, vow to destroy Israel within the year and are building and testing long range nuke bomb delivery systems with impunity. The head of Iran’s nuclear program announced last week the installation of cascades of the latest “Generation 5” ultra-fast centrifuges.

Meanwhile the US, the “guarantor” of Iranian compliance to the JCPOA, is seen by the Sunni gulf states (and many Israelis) as being either afraid to confront Iran (which would expose the bluff of the “Deal”), or worse, being in bed with the Iranians from the outset.

  

So here is my 1-year cheat-sheet summary of the Iran Nuke Deal, I believe that today:

1. Iran is not significantly farther from the “breakout” time frame that former IAEA chief nuclear inspector David Albright determined a year and a half ago –  three to six months from decision to bomb.

2. With the new centrifuges that time frame will be shortened considerably.

3. Iran is expanding its military capabilities in preparation for war against Saudi Arabia, Turkey…or both.

4. One of the unfortunate consequences of the failed coup in Turkey is the publication of the fact that ninety (90!!!) B-61 thermo-nuclear bombs are stored in Turkey at the Incirlik Air Base, 40 of which are allocated for use by the Turkish Air Force. With the Sunni Turks and Shiite Iranians natural and historic enemies, that are currently fighting on opposite sides in Syria, the fact that this “Deal” did not eliminate the Iranian nuclear program just adds to the regional instability.

5. Contrary to its obligations in the JCPOA, Iran continues to support Islamist terrorism around the world.

6. Iran continues to threaten Israel with Imminent annihilation.

And finally, together with America’s shamefully reneged “red line” threat in Syria and its failure to fulfil promises to “degrade and destroy” ISIS and Al-Qaeda (which is now stronger than ever after Bin Laden’s demise), this “deal” has contributed greatly to the deterioration of America’s image, prestige and respect in the Middle East. Over the past year, Iranian leaders, artists, teachers and entertainers have been mocking American negotiation “skills”, while Sunni Arab leaders and opinion makers have been openly calling for stronger ties to Russia, China, Japan, India and even Israel…because the US can’t be trusted to fulfill its promises or commitments…ouch! 

Bottom line – The JCPA, the Iran Nuke Deal, which is still unsigned (!), was a bad deal then, and is a bad deal now, one year later.

The Ramifications of Turkey's Failed Coup

Sarasota, July 24, 2016

The really important news over the past few weeks, as far as Israel and the Middle East are concerned, has nothing to do with the just finished Republican conference or the just starting Democratic one, or the gut-wrenching violence against police and citizens in our cities. And it has little to do with almost daily Islamist Jihadist terrorism attacks in Europe, Israel, the US and around the world. Those are certainly important and newsworthy...though not, at least at this stage, in a potentially present and future changing dimension.

No. In my opinion that classification belongs to the failed "coup" against the elected government of president Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey.

It is also the most under-reported major news story, at least here in the US. This is probably because of the difficulty of news writers to understand and explain, in coherent 15 second soundbites, what was going on...especially with so many other things happening at the same time.

Historical Background:  

• The Turkish Ottoman Empire (1299-1922) was a Sunni Islamic Caliphate, or "Islamic State", with the sultan also holding the title of "Caliph".
• Under the leadership of Turkish War of Independence victor general Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the Sultanate was abolished on November 1, 1922, and the last sultan, Mehmed VI left the country two weeks later.
• The new Grand National Assembly of Turkey (GNA) officially declared the Republic of Turkey on October 29, 1923, claiming: "The Republic of Turkey is a democratic, secular and social state governed by the rule of law, which has the principle of separation of powers."
• The Caliphate was constitutionally abolished on March 3, 1924.
• The new constitution Ataturk pushed through was geared to assure that no religion, especially Islam, would have any political influence in "secular" Turkey.
• Parties that promoted a religious agenda could not run in elections.
• The newly purged Turkish military was designated guardian of the secular state, with sweeping powers to arrest, put on trial and even outlaw Islamist movements and politicians. This, of course, did not sit well with Islamic traditionalists.
• Several times, the military has stepped in to arrest and outlaw "Islamist" party leaders, including in 1998 when it outlawed and dismantled the pro-Islamist Welfare Party (RP), which Erdogan was a member of.
• Erdogan served10 months in prison for inciting religious intolerance, after which he claimed to abandon "openly" Islamist politics and established the "moderate" conservative AKP party in 2001. AKP won a landslide victory in the 2002 general election, with the party's co-founder Abdullah Gul becoming Prime Minister, until his government annulled Erdogan's ban from political office.
• Erdogan subsequently became Prime Minister in 2003.
• Over the past years there have been several rounds of purges in the Turkish military, with staunch secularists officers being removed, retired or put on trial for "treason", and being replaced by Islamic sympathetic ones.
• Erdogan denies wanting to impose Islamic values, saying he is committed to secularism. But he supports Turks' right to express their religious beliefs more "openly".
• Some supporters nickname him "Sultan" - a fond reference to the Ottoman Empire...
• Under Erdogan, in 2013 Turkey lifted rules banning women from wearing headscarves in the country's state institutions - with the exception of the judiciary, military and police - ending a decades-old Ataturk restriction.
• Critics also pointed to Erdogan's failed bid to criminalize adultery, and his attempts to introduce "alcohol-free zones", as evidence of his alleged Islamist intentions.

Which brings me to the failed "Coup" and its ramifications for Israel, The Middle East and the US.

Assuming this was a real coup (I have my doubts...), it was carried out by a small group of officers and soldiers who were alarmed by the direction Erdogan is taking the country in several areas:

1. The systematic erosion of Ataturk's strict secularist policies.
2. The disappearing chance of Turkey joining the EU.
3. The multiple arrests without trial of anti-Erdogan politicians, journalists and activists.
4. The frequent suspensions of civil rights by imposing "Emergency Law" after terrorist attacks.
5. The changes in the military command personnel.
6. The massive, ongoing influx of unscreened Syrian and Iraqi refugees.
7. The perceived anemic responses to ISIS and PKK (Kurdish Workers Party) terrorist attacks.
8. Growing relations with the anti-American Muslim Brotherhood.

The coup failed. According to official reports, most of its perpetrators were either killed, or arrested, tortured...and then killed.

In the first hours some 6,000 officials plus the same number of military personnel, mainly officers including Karima Komash, a female F16 pilot, 12 generals, 1 Admiral, 56 captains, 170 pilot cadets, and more were immediately arrested, many charged with treason. As of this writing, since the "coup":

• 21,700 Education Dept. civil servants have been fired
• 21,000 teachers have lost their posts
• 8,000 policemen and women fired.
• 2,745 judges and prosecutors suspended
• 1,577 University deacons suspended
• 1,500 finance ministry officials fired
• 262 military judges and prosecutors suspended
• 257 workers in the prime minister's office fired 

The facts that these lists were ready, and that the security teams needed for the arrests were in place, lead me to believe that the whole thing was staged - by Erdogan.

It reminds me of the Reichstag fire in 1933 which was used by the Nazi Party as proof that communists were plotting against the German government, and was pivotal in the establishment of Nazi Germany.

Erdogan's popularity had been waning, while he was trying to assume more direct, dictatorial powers, 

1. The "coup" has now made him a "national hero".
2. He claimed that a rebel pilot in an F-16 had his plane targeted but did not fire. Why?
3. The "state of emergency" gives Erdogan and his cabinet new powers to implement laws without parliamentary approval. It also allows Ankara to censor media broadcasts, search citizens, impose curfews and restrict gatherings both public and private.

But should we really care if Erdogan and his Islamist colleagues in AKP continue to establish the next Turkish/Sunni Sultanate/Caliphate by methodically eroding Kamal Ataturk's secular reforms?

You bet! We should care VERY MUCH because:

1. Turkey is the largest non-Arab Sunni-majority state in the region.
2. Its military is consistently ranked among the ten strongest in the world.
3. It is a member of NATO and, most concerning...:

A total of ninety (90!!!) B61 thermo-nuclear bombs are stored in Turkey at the Incirlik Air Base, 40 of which are allocated for use by the Turkish Air Force.

The medium and long-term ramifications of the failed coup against Erdogan are, at least at the moment, the establishment of a large, Sunni Islamist Turkish superpower with nuclear weapons, facing an Iranian Anti-Sunni Shiite superpower with nuclear weapons (thanks to the "Deal"), both hating each other and together hating Israel, which reportedly is also a nuclear superpower.

All this when the only visible and respected "responsible adult" currently in the Middle East is Vladimir Putin...

Now what could possibly go wrong?!?

What I'll Write About From Israel

Dallas - July 12, 2016 

Notice the dateline at the top of this update? A ‘dateline” tells the reader when and where the article was written.

As most of you already know, I’m moving back to Israel in a few weeks. Therefore, this will be my last update datelined “Dallas”. Future articles and updates will be datelined as appropriate.

And I’ll certainly have a lot to report. While in the past few months here in the US we’ve been preoccupied with politics, ongoing violence (including the tragic attack on Dallas and DART police officers), the economy, BREXIT, more politics, criminal investigations, terrorism threats, immigration, and even more politics...the rest of the world, and especially the Middle East, have generated events and news stories that will have major impacts on the US and Israel. Here is a taste:

• Israel - Netanyahu’s busy week:
  • Affirming the ongoing relations with Cairo, Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry visited Israel this week for a series of meetings. This is the first official visit by a high ranking Egyptian official in nine years. It’s hoped that this visit may lead to a possibility of restarting the Peace Process based on a new initiative of President Sisi, together with an more open thawing of Israeli relations with other Sunni Arab countries.
  • Last week Netanyahu, as Prime Minister and acting Foreign Minister visited several African countries including: Uganda, to mark the 40^th anniversary of the Israeli raid on Entebbe (where his brother, Yoni, was killed), Kenya, Rwanda and Ethiopia.
  • Israel also signed a new friendship treaty with Turkey that restored relations to the way they were before the Mavi Marmara incident.
  • Oh...and Israeli media reported that the Attorney General was investigating Netanyahu on suspicion of some serious money laundering.
• Iran - Complete failure of the “Deal”
  • One year after the much heralded, and still unsigned (!), so-called “Iran Nuke Deal” (JCPOA - Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action), the UN watchdog IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) and the intelligence agencies of the P5+1 countries still admit that they have no clue as to what nuclear weapons development Iran did in the past, nor what it still has and what it’s working on today.
  • Despite getting almost full sanctions relief, Iran has violated the JCPOA (and UN Security Council resolutions) several times. Its leaders still demonize the West, vow to destroy Israel within the year and are building and testing long range nuke bomb delivery systems with impunity.
  • Meanwhile the US, the “guarantor” of Iranian compliance to the JCPOA, is seen by the Sunni gulf states and many Israelis as being either afraid to confront the Iran (which would expose the bluff of the “Deal”), or worse, being in bed with the Iranians from the outset.
• Syria - Fighting continues. After five years and over 400,000 dead.
  • Assad’s Alawite (Shiite) regime is still strongly supported by Russia and Iran.
  • Sunni-ruled Saudi Arabia, seeking to counter the influence of its rival Iran, has been a major provider of military and financial assistance to the rebels, including those with extreme Islamist ideologies.
  • Turkey, another staunch supporter of the rebels, wants to end US support for Kurdish forces fighting ISIS in northern Syria, accusing them of being part of the banned Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).
  • The US, which says President Assad is responsible for widespread atrocities and must step down, has provided only limited military assistance to "moderate" rebels, in addition to limited airstrikes.
• Iraq - The Shiite led, Iranian affiliated government forces have, with considerable US military assistance (what’s wrong with this picture?), succeeded in retaking the city of Fallujah from ISIS, and are now preparing to try to retake Mosul...but probably not anytime soon.
• ISIS - Not “degraded”, not “destroyed”.
  • Lost territory in Syria and Iraq but remains a formidable and well equipped fighting force with demonstrated world-wide terrorism capabilities, and a growing esteem among young, alienated Sunnis around the globe.

And I haven’t even touched on the continued growth of Al-Qaeda, with this week’s threat of revenge against the U.S. by Osama Bin Laden’s son, Hamza, who declared: "We will continue striking you and targeting you in your country and abroad in response to your oppression of the people of Palestine, Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Somalia and the rest of the Muslim lands that did not survive your oppression".

With all that, plus other Middle East developments and, of course, the US elections, there will be plenty to write about, talk about, Skype about and Podcast about from Dateline ISRAEL.