The Iran Nuke Deal, The Temple Mount Understanding and the Rashomon Syndrome

In his classic 1950 movie "Rashomon", legendary Japanese filmmaker Akira Korosawa tells a story about witnesses and participants in a murder and rape that give alternative, self-serving and contradictory versions of the same crime.

 

I was reminded of that movie after the announcement of the details of the P5+1 Iranian nuclear "agreements" by the various negotiators. Based on statements and subsequent actions by all the interlocutors, it's clear that the 109 page text of the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) has undergone major changes in favor of Iran, as demanded by Iran's Supreme leader, especially in the areas of sanction relief, inspection, verification and military development and acquisition.

 

With Europe, Russia and China already open for business with Iran, contrary to the agreement, it seems like everyone has a different version of what was actually agreed on.

 

This brings me to the new "Temple Mount Understanding", which is supposed to help stop the current wave of violence in Israel. It won't.

 

Background: The current violence started with the incitement of Palestinian president Abu Mazen and several Moslem preachers who falsely claimed that Israel was planning to change the 1967 "Status Quo" arrangement regarding Temple Mount. The Status Quo states clearly that:

1. Custodianship of the whole upper level Herodian compound, including the Dome of the Rock and Al-Aksa mosque is in the hands of the Jordanian Waqf - The Islamic Holy Trust committee under the authority and administration of the King of Jordan.
2. Israel is responsible for security and order, in coordination with the Waqf.
3. Jews and Christians are strictly forbidden from praying anywhere on the compound, though they can visit during restricted hours.

The Western Wall, like all the supporting walls Herod built around Temple Mount, is not part of the Status Quo.

 

So what is the "Temple Mount Understanding"?

 

After a marathon series of phone calls, John Kerry flew to Jordan last Saturday for meetings with King Abdullah ll and Abu Mazen. After consultation with Netanyahu, Kerry said that Israel had accepted a proposal by Jordan's monarch, custodian of the al-Aqsa compound, for round-the-clock monitoring by cameras.

 

According to Reuters, Kerry said that such surveillance "could really be a game-changer in discouraging anybody from disturbing the sanctity" of the Temple Mount/al-Aqsa site. There was no immediate comment from Abbas, though Saeb Erekat, secretary-general of the Palestine Liberation Organization, said Abbas had told Kerry "that he should look into the roots of the problem - and that is the continued occupation".

 

Speaking to his cabinet on Sunday, Netanyahu said Israel "has an interest in cameras being deployed everywhere on the Temple Mount" to refute claims that it is changing the status quo. "The Temple Mount will be managed as it has been until now. The visits by Jews to the Temple Mount will be maintained, there will be no change to the Status Quo," Netanyahu stressed.

 

According to AP, Netanyahu said such surveillance on the plaza - where stone-throwing protests against Jewish visits often break out - would also "show where the provocations are really coming from" and to thwart them from the outset.

 

Palestinian leader Saeb Erekat, ignoring the fact that the Jordanians will be installing the cameras and the Waqf will be monitoring them said: "He (Netanyahu) wants to install cameras in order to monitor and arrest our people, he is lying and lying."

 

Azzam Khatib, director of the Jordanian Waqf, the religious body that runs the site, said the footage would be streamed on the Internet "so the world would see what is going on inside Al-Aqsa."

 

A US official said Israeli and Jordanian technical officials would discuss who would conduct the video monitoring. No date for consultations was announced.

 

But monitoring what happens 24/7 on Temple Mount, especially with Jerusalem's cold and windy winter setting in, will do very little to stop the everyday 'lone wolf" terrorist attacks, incited and provoked by religious and secular leaders and social media, that continued this week unabated, despite the stormy weather, throughout Israel and the territories.

  

Just hours after Kerry's announcement, the unsigned Temple Mount / al Aqsa "Understandings" were already being 'understood' differently by the different sides...just like the disintegrating Iran "Deal".  

 

It's almost as if the "Rashomon Syndrome" is becoming a deliberate strategy tool of US foreign policy, replacing firm declarations like "red lines" and "unbreakable relations and commitments" with vague, nebulous and toothless unsigned "understandings". 

 

I hope I'm wrong.

As Violence Accelerates Israel Considers More Options

While during this past week there has been a slight reduction in the number of terrorist knife attacks against Israelis, we are also seeing a worrying trend with the deadly use of firearms, explosive devices (including car bombs), an uptick in rock and Molotov cocktail throwing against Israeli cars on roads in Jerusalem and the West Bank, the attempted bombing of a Jewish kindergarten, and the participation of another Israeli Arab citizen in the terrorist attack in Beer Sheva this past Sunday.

 

Also - despite attempts by Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) and the Palestinian security forces to "lower the flames", it's clear now that he is not only losing control over the street and his own Fatah movement leadership in general, but over Hamas and extreme Islamist preachers, both in the West Bank and Gaza, in particular. The rhetoric and incitement, as well as the glorification of the "holy martyrs" who were killed during the attacks, both over the airwaves and through social media, is growing and going viral. Even ISIS has joined the social media frenzy - with detailed instructions and videos on how to kill "Jews" with a knife.

 

Here is a list of recent events:

• October 1: An Israeli settler couple - Eitam and Naama Henkin - were shot dead in front of their four children, including an 4-month-old infant, as they drove in the West Bank. Israel later arrested five Palestinians it said were part of a Hamas cell that carried out the attack.
• October 2: Israel deployed hundreds of troops in the West Bank to find those that killed the Henkins.
• October 3: A Palestinian stabbed two Israeli men to death and injured a mother and toddler before he was killed by police in Jerusalem's Old City.
• October 4: A Palestinian stabbed and wounded an Israeli teenager before he was shot by police.
• October 5: Two Palestinian teenagers were killed in violent protests against Israeli soldiers in the West Bank.
• October 7:
  • A 19-year-old Palestinian stabbed a soldier while taking his weapon in the southern town of Kiryat Gat. The suspect then fled into a residential building, where he followed a local woman into her apartment before police forces arrived and shot and killed him.
  • A Palestinian woman stabbed an Israeli man who then shot and wounded her.
  • Another Palestinian was wounded by police after he attempted to run over an officer at a West Bank checkpoint.
  • A Palestinian attacker stabbed an Israeli man outside a mall in central Israel.
• October 8:
  • A soldier shot and killed an Arab attacker after he stabbed four people with a screwdriver in Tel Aviv.
  • Two Israelis were injured in separate Palestinian stabbing attacks elsewhere.
• October 9:
  • The unrest spread to the Gaza border. Seven Palestinians were killed in violent protests there with Israeli soldiers.
  • A Palestinian was shot and killed after attacking police with a knife in the West Bank.
  • In an apparent revenge attack, an Israeli stabbed Palestinians and two Arab Bedouins, injuring them in the southern Israel.
• October 10:
  • Palestinians carried out two stabbing attacks in Jerusalem before being shot dead by police.
  • Two Palestinians were killed near the Gaza border fence in renewed clashes there.
  • A Palestinian stabbed and injured two Israelis in Jerusalem.
• October 11:
  • Two Palestinians, were killed in an airstrike that followed rocket fire from Gaza into Israel.
  • A Palestinian, 13, was killed in clashes with Israeli forces in the West Bank.
  • An Israeli Arab Woman stabbed four Israelis in Afulla in northern Israel. She was wounded by security forces and captured.
  • A Palestinian terrorist detonated a gas canister bomb in her car injuring an officer and herself near Jerusalem.
• October 12:
  • Two Palestinian teens stabbed two Israelis, including a teen riding a bicycle, injuring them seriously. One of the Palestinian attackers was killed after rushing at officers with a knife.
  • A Palestinian attacked a soldier on a bus in Jerusalem before being shot and killed.
• October 13:
  • Two armed Palestinian men boarded a bus in Jerusalem and began shooting and stabbing passengers, killing two Israelis, including a 78 year old grandfather.
  • Another terrorist rammed a car into a bus station before stabbing bystanders, in near-simultaneous attacks Tuesday. Three Israelis and two attackers were killed. Several other Israelis were injured in the bus attack.
  • There were also two Palestinian stabbing attacks in the central Israeli city of Raanana that injured five, including one seriously. Emergency services said several of the wounded were in serious condition.
  • A Palestinian was killed in clashes in the West Bank. The Israeli military said he was shot as he threw a firebomb at a vehicle.
• October 19:
  • An Israeli citizen from the Bedouin community entered the central bus station in Beer Sheva with a knife, killed a soldier who was waiting for a bus, took his rifle and started shooting. He managed to wound several people, including security personnel, before he was neutralized and killed.
  • Unfortunately, during the event an Eritrean citizen, in Israel for work, was mistakenly identified as a "terrorist" by a security guard and was subsequently killed by an angry lynch mob.
• October 20:
  • A 57 year old father and grandfather was on his way to a doctor in the City of Kiryat Arba near Hebron when his car was stoned by Palestinians. He was killed by a passing truck as he got out of his car to check the damage.

While Israel has already taken numerous measures to quell the current wave of violence, more has to be done. This is no longer an issue of who can pray on Temple Mount. It has become a Palestinian national return to their original and ongoing narrative of "throwing the Jews to the sea".

 

Israel has the tools and capabilities of stopping it, and as far as I know is now considering which, and in what severity, to use.

Will the Knife and Dagger Morph into the Gun and Bomb?

Despite Netanyahu's declaration, as detailed in this update last week, that: "Israel is waging an all-out war on Palestinian terrorism", and despite the enhanced measures against terrorists that have been put in place, we are seeing a substantial and dramatic increase in fatal attacks by young Palestinian terrorists against Israelis.

This does not seem to be an organized or planned operation. In almost all the incidents so far the terrorists were "lone wolf" attackers with no apparent terror group affiliation, and the targets were mostly random "soft" targets: a family walking home in the Jewish Quarter of the Old City, a child on a bike, people waiting in a bus stop or riding a bus, or just walking in the street.

However an attack in Jerusalem on Tuesday morning was different. At 10:30 two terrorists boarded a bus in North Jerusalem, with a gun and knife. One was affiliated with Hamas and the other with Abu Mazen's Fatah group. They opened fire on the passengers and attacked them with a knife, killing three, including a 78 year-old grandfather, and wounding over 20. One attacker was killed by security forces and the other wounded and captured.

The attacks are not limited to Jerusalem only. This week there have been "lone wolf" attacks in Tel Aviv, Afulla, Raanana, and Migdal Haemek. With the exception of the Jerusalem bus attack on Tuesday, all were perpetuated by non-affiliated Palestinians using knives and daggers, or dagger-like weapons such as screwdrivers and even a potato peeler. All the perpetrators were "neutralized" (killed, injured and/or captured).

There are several questions here:

1. What is behind these individual attacks?

• It's a combination of general disappointment and frustration of the Palestinian youth against their leaders, and incitement on social media - especially graphic pictures and videos about the daily clashes on Temple Mount between the "Mourabitun" stone and bottle throwers and the Israeli security forces, accompanied by impassioned calls from PLO leaders and religious clerics to: "defend the Holy Sanctuary (Dome of the Rock) from an imagined Israeli plan to allow Jews to pray there. (Israeli law forbids Jewish or Christian prayer anywhere on Temple Mount). The fires were flamed by the Palestinians publishing a photo of a knife wielding terrorist neutralized by security forces with the caption "Israel murders children".  

2. Why is the violence continuing and spreading geographically?

• Mainly because of the promise of fame, notoriety and financial support (to you, if you go to jail, or your family if you are killed). Also because social media sites are using the ISIS model to excite, anger and recruit disenfranchised or frustrated men and women to "Save the Holy Shrine".

3. Can Israel stop the current wave of violence?

• Israel can't, at least not completely, but it can minimize the chance of it getting worse by making terrorists think twice. For example:
• Use of closures and curfews.
• Extended jail time for those captured
• Heavy sentences for those who incite to violence and murder - from all religions.
• Destroying family homes of all perpetrators...even if the victims were only injured
• Heavy fines on families of underage terrorists.

The Israeli government has already started, and will continue to deal with this wave of violence.

One of the issues, according to most experts, is defusing and countering what is referred to as the "Dome of the Rock" psychosis", that appears to make a young Palestinian man or women get up one morning, grab a knife or screwdriver, and start stabbing people.

I only hope Israel will succeed before we see another full-scale guns and bombs Intifada.

Bibi: "Israel is waging all-out war on Palestinian Terrorism"

Last Saturday Netanyahu declared that "Israel is  waging an all-out war on Palestinian terrorism. This battle must be fought with determination and focus. We are increasing our prevention and punitive measures. We all feel outraged, but we have to let the IDF, Shin Bet and police fight terrorism, and no one should take the law into their own hands."

 

Bibi's declaration came after one of the deadliest weeks of attacks by Palestinian terrorists against Jewish Israeli citizens since the second Intifada ended in 2005.

 

Just last week four Israelis were murdered by Palestinian terrorists:

 

On September 14, Alexander Levlovitz was killed on the way home from celebrating Rosh Hashanah with his family. The car that he was driving was hit by stones thrown by Palestinian terrorists. Four Palestinians were subsequently arrested.

 

Eitam and Naama Henkin were gunned down last Thursday in a well-planned ambush while traveling with their four young children on a road in Samaria. Eitam was a US citizen.

 

On Saturday evening, Nehemiah Lavi and Aharon Banita were stabbed to death, and Banita's wife and two year old son were injured as they walked home from the Western Wall in the Old City. The terrorist, Muhannad Halabi, 19, was killed by security forces at the scene.

 

Also on Saturday, 15-year-old Moshe Malka sustained moderate wounds in another Jerusalem stabbing attack.

 

In its weekly meeting on Monday, the Israeli cabinet decided on new and enhanced steps to stop the current wave of Palestinian violence, including:

• Easing rules of deadly force use against stone throwers (stones, bricks or cinder-blocks being classified as a deadly weapons).
• Tougher punitive action against incitement on social media.
• Minimum prison sentences for stone-throwing and firebombing.
• Imposing hefty fines on the parents of minors involved in violent acts.
• Expediting destruction of perpetrators' homes.
• Extension of judicially overseen administrative detention for suspects.
• Additional security forces (both police and IDF) in Jerusalem and the West bank
• Limiting Palestinian access to the Old City and Temple Mount in Jerusalem.

The "Catch 22" of these measures is that the Palestinian leadership, and especially Abu Mazen who openly incites and encourages these terrorist acts and then glorifies the "martyrs" who murder unarmed women, children and babies, will run to the UN and world leaders, begging to punish the "Occupying Force" (Israel) for its "barbaric, inhumane and undemocratic treatment of the poor, innocent, occupied Palestinians".

 

Is this the beginning of the third Intifada? I don't think so. Despite the fact that on Tuesday the stone-throwing spread to Jaffa and Tel-Aviv, it still lacks the mass grass-roots support and quasi-military leadership and organization that the previous ones had.

 

The good news is that if the improved, clarified and enhanced government directions on dealing with the situation are implemented with full determination and commitment, then this "embryonic "uprising will be stopped before it develops.

 

The bad news is that Abu Mazen and the various Palestinian "resistance" (terrorism) groups will try to make the optics of each event as bad as possible for Israel. There will, no doubt, be global condemnations, International Criminal Court (ICC) accusations and a strong tailwind to the BDS (Boycott, Divest, Sanction) movement.

 

Unfortunately with ISIS already established in Gaza and Hamas enlarging its footprint in the Palestinian areas of Judea and Samaria, there is no way around the negative PR if Bibi and the Israeli government are really determined to finally "wage all-out war on Palestinian terrorism", and stop the current wave of violence from morphing into a full-scale Intifada.

 

I hope that at least some of Israel's friends will understand.