No Mercy for ISIS

"If someone comes to kill you - 

kill him first"

(Babylonian Talmud, Sanhedrin 72)

At a briefing in McKinney last week, I was asked who is supplying, and replenishing ISIS with its vast stockpiles of weapons, ammunition, armored personnel carriers, Humvees, artillery, rockets, shells, mortars, advanced communication and control systems, body armor and more. My answer was, of course: The United States of America.

I wasn't joking. Though we see many ISIS fighters carrying AK-47's in pictures and videos of the recent impressive conquests of Ramadi in Iraq and Palmyra (Tadmor) in Syria, even more can be seen fighting with M16's. Their light and heavy machine guns are US made, Their mortars and shells, artillery pieces and rounds, body armor, communication systems and the massive amounts of ammunition  are all top-of-the-line, spanking new...andAmerican.

If you've been following this column you've probably already figured it out. It is impossible to capture strategic modern cities like Ramadi in Iraq (population around half a million) or Palmyra (biblical "Tadmor") in Syria (pop.150,000), without first taking control of the military bases and security installations in and around them. This is exactly what ISIS does. It launches well-coordinated attacks with disciplined forces on the military bases of Iraq and Syria. In the case of Ramadi, the recently trained and supplied Iraqi army didn't even pretend to put up a fight. They just ran away.

This was not surprising to those who understand the region's complexities and customs.

Fanatically Sunni ISIS was established to essentially kill every Shiite in the world, starting in the Levant - a large area that was once part of a Sunni Caliphate. The government in Baghdad is Shiite. Many of the officers and soldiers in the military are Shiite. And they all know exactly what ISIS does upon capturing a military base or civilian town: The Shiite men, together with Christians, Yazidis and anyone else who is not a Sunni Arab areimmediately and very sadistically massacred. The women and children are brutally abused and then sold into slavery. The Sunnis are given the option to pledge fealty ("Baya") to the ISIS leader and join the ranks...or join the Shiites in death.

So when the Iraqi army evaporated in Ramadi, as did the Syrian army inPalmyra, they left newly delivered American military weapons and supplies for ISIS. And in both cases hundreds of Sunni officers and soldiers, from both countries, happily joined ISIS, pledged to the "Caliph", joined the ranks...and no briefed the ISIS intelligence units as to how the Americans trained them and what the new tactics and strategies of the US are.

Which brings me to an announcement that the US and Turkey will jointlytrain, arm and support "vetted" Sunni rebel units to fight...ISIS (!?). Not Hezbollah, not what's left of Assad's once-mighty military, These estimated 15,000 (initially) "moderate" rebel recruits, will be expected (after a few months training) to defeat the largest, best trained, best commanded (by battle hardened former Iraqi and Syrian officers), best equipped, highest motivated and cruelest terrorist army the world has ever known.

Are they serious? American trained supposedly moderate Sunni Syrian Arabs,coordinated by the Americans and the non-Arab Turks fighting against ISIS. Gee...what can possibly go wrong???

The good news is that there still is time, and a proven tactic, to diminish and degrade ISIS. It has been used in similar situations throughout history. Kings Saul and David used it against the Philistines. The Assyrians used it to defeat the Kingdom of Israel. Napoleon Bonaparte used it to conquer Jaffa, and the Ottoman Empire were experts at using it to put down rebellions. More recently the French used it very effectively against rebels in Algeria, as Israel did against Fedayeen terrorists in the fifties and sixties, and against Hamas, Fatah and Hezbollah to this day. Today it's used by Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, Egypt, Turkey and others.

The tactic is simple and very effective. But it takes a full commitment and the intestinal fortitude to keep it going until the specific threat is dealt with.

What we're talking about is "targeted killings" - a sustained, ongoing series of operations to decapitate the senior military and political leadership of the organization. It is not a single one-off event, like killing Ben Laden and assuming that Al-Qaeda is finished.

If the US wanted to really dismantle Al-Qaeda it had to immediately follow up with the elimination of Ayman al-Zawahiri, Ben Laden's replacement, together with 20-30 of the top AQ franchise heads and senior military planners worldwide. If they run - follow them to the ends of the Earth and eliminate them there. Family members should not be targeted, but neither should their presence as human shields be a deterrent - just think of 9/11.

I believe that "capture and trial" should not be an option. Point in case:Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the mastermind of 9/11 and many other terrorist acts and the animal who gleefully admitted to beheading Wall Street Journal reporter Daniel Pearl. KSM has been in US custody since 2003, but has yet to be put on trial.

If the goal is to create such fear and paranoia that even the most fanatic jihadists will think twice before joining ISIS or a similar terrorist organization, then "capture" should be off the table.

But make no mistake - even after eliminating a critical mass of the current political and operational leadership of ISIS while at the same time continuing the daily bombing raids against the rank and file fighters, the organization will simply reinvent itself (again!), and this war against extreme Islamist Jihadism will continue for many years. And since they clearly show no mercy for us - we should show none for them. 

Which Jerusalem?

Jerusalem Day - the Israeli national holiday that commemorates the reunification of Jerusalem during the 1967 Six Day War after 20 years of being divided, is celebrated every year on the 28^th day of the Jewish Month of Iyar. This year it fell on Sunday, May 17^th.

As tens of thousands of Jews and supporters from around the world poured into Jerusalem carrying blue and white Israeli flagsand singing Israeli songs praising the city, it was impossible not to reflect back to the weeks and months right after the war, when we all poured into the Old City, prayed at the Western Wall for the first time in twenty years, climbed the ramparts to see West Jerusalem from "the other side", and walked through the narrow streets of the Arab Market, where Middle aged merchants enticed us into their shops with broad smiles and Hebrew phrases they still remembered from before 1948.

And who can forget Naomi Shemer's two versions of "Jerusalem of Gold" - sung hauntingly by Shuly Nathan . The first on May 15, with verses of longing for sites in and around the city we could not access then, and the second version (in the link above) just one month later, after the war, with the additional stanza affirming that: "we have returned" to those sites.

But not all Jerusalemites celebrated on Sunday. Many of the Arab citizens of the city, bolstered by residents of neighboring Arab villages and left wing Israelis demonstrated against the unification. Waving large Palestinian and black Jihadist flags, they protested the annexation of East Jerusalem by the Israeli government following the Six Day War, and called for re-dividing the city.

Before we get to the question of if that is even feasible, let alone physically possible, we have to clarify that, depending on which period in history one looks at, there is no "one" Jerusalem.  

When the Israelis talk about Jerusalem, when the Arabs talk about Jerusalem, when the Palestinians talk about Jerusalem and when the Europeans and Americans talk about Jerusalem...they are referring to five different geographical locations in the same general location, with some overlapping areas. To understand that, we have to know the (abridged) evolution of the city.  

Remember - Jerusalem was always a small, backwater town, not on any main highway, topographically inferior and difficult to defend, with one small spring that provided enough water for a few dozen families only (until Solomon built an aqueduct from Bethlehem):

• Probably first settled around 3,000 BCE (1,000 years before King David). Small, possibly fortified Jebusite town, restricted by water supply and topographical inferiority.
• Joshua's conquest - city was ignored. Not claimed by any tribe.
• 1,000 BCE King David needs a "District of Columbia" for his capital. Sends forces to conquer the little forgotten townlocated on a small hill between the tribes of Judah and Benjamin. Keeps the Jebusite name Jerusalem, but adds "City of David". Builds a palace, administration buildings and fortifications. Total area less than half a square mile around the spring.
• 970 BCE: Solomon slightly expanded the city and its fortifications, and built the First Temple.
• 586 BCE: Jerusalem and First Temple were destroyed by the  Babylonians. The intelligentsia, royalty and priests were exiled to Babylon, while the majority of the Jewish population remained in Judea and the Jerusalem area.
• 538 BCE Some of the Exiles are allowed back to rebuild the Temple.
• 445 BCE, King Xerxes I of Persia issued a decree allowing the city and its walls to be rebuilt. Jerusalem resumed its role as capital of Judah and center of Jewish worship. City area expanded.
• 152 BCE: After the Maccabees' victory, Hasmonean kings expanded and strengthened Jerusalem's area, water supply and fortifications.
• 60 BCE: Roman rule. King Herod expands Jerusalem greatly, renovates the Temple and Temple Mount, builds major structures including the Citadel (today's Jaffa Gate area) and brings water in large aqueducts from Bethlehem.
• Jerusalem reached a peak in size and population of 200,000 at the end of the Second Temple Period, when the city covered over two square kilometers (more than one square mile).
• 70 CE - Jerusalem and the Temple were destroyed by the Romans during the Jewish revolt.
• In the Byzantine period the city remained pretty much in ruins, with the exception of the construction of the Church of the Nativity and other Christian sites by order of Emperor Constantine.
• 638 CE - After the Muslim conquest Jews and Christians were allowed to reside in the city and practice their beliefs. Though several large buildings were constructed within the city, including the Dome of The Rock on Temple Mount - it did not return to its grandeur or size during Herod's time.
• From 640-1516 Jerusalem was conquered and reconquered, at various times, by: Byzantines; Crusaders; Muslims; Mongols and Mameluks, and was decimated in 1347 by the Black Death.
• Important note -During 1,500 years of Muslim rule (the early Caliphates; the Mamelukes and the Turkish Ottoman Empire) Jerusalem never served as a capital of a Muslim state, region, kingdom, caliphate, or seat of government.
• 1516: The Ottoman Empire replaced the Mameluks in Palestine.
• 1538: Sultan Suleiman the Magnificent rebuilds wallsaround Jerusalem, creating the Old City as we know it today.
• As the Jewish population grew in the Old City during the 19^th and 20^th centuries, new suburbs and communities were built outside the walls by both communities - Jews to the West, and Arabs to the East of the Old City Walls.
• In the temporary armistice agreement after the 1948 War of Independence, a cease-fire line divided, for the first time in history, between the Jewish and Arab sectors, leaving the Old City, with its evacuated Jewish Quarter and the Western Wall, in the hands of the Jordanians.
• The city was, as celebrated on Sunday, reunited after the Six Day War.

So before we can argue about whether or not Jerusalem can be re-divided in an eventual "two state" solution with the Palestinians...we have to first agree as to which historic and geographic area of Jerusalem (move the slide on the picture in this link) we are talking about...

Syria - The End of Assad's Regime

It was only a question of time. For the past four years it was never really a question of WHETHER the regime of Bashir al-Assad, despite Iranian and Russian support, would collapse but rather WHEN. And the "when" is very close.

Quick recap: For the past 4 years the tyrannical Alawite (Shiite) dictator Bashir al-Assad has been fighting a civil war against various groups of Syrian Sunni rebels whose goal is to depose of him and his regime and establish a Sunni Sharia-compliant Islamic state.

Assad's Alawite/Shiite regime is supported by Iran, which has committed troops, weapons, missiles, financing, logistics and its proxy Shiite Hezbollah military units from Lebanon.

The Sunni rebels are divided into several groups, with different affiliations and nebulous alliances, which have a tendency to split and merge from time to time:

• ISIS: the largest of the Sunni groups. Growing and expanding, it controls the biggest land segment of Syria, in the North and Northeast, and is currently moving in on the "Alawite State" (a thin coastal strip between the coastal city of Latakia and the port of Tartus), the last stronghold held by the regime's forces.
• Jabhat al-Nusra: A Sunni al-Qaeda affiliate that is the second largest rebel group in Syria, that today controls most of the Syrian Golan Heights, in places up to the Israeli border. While initially an enemy of ISIS after the latter was expelled from Al-Qaeda, in recent weeks we've seen collaboration between Nusra and ISIS during the capture of the major cities of Idlib and Aleppo and a division of control between them of in those cities. There are also rumors of talks of a merger, with Nusra and other groups bolting from al-Qaeda.
• The Free Syrian Army (FSA) and a few smaller secular rebel groups. These are supposedly the less extreme, more secular mixed Sunni, Druze, Shiite and Christian militias, commanded by ex-Syrian officers in exile, that the U.S. and Europeans are supposed to be training and arming to fight both Assad's loyalists and rebel Jihadis. No success yet...

All the Sunni rebel groups are either self-sufficient (ISIS) or are supported by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, the UAE and other Sunni Gulf states, mainly to defeat Iran in Syria, but with a growing wariness of the expansion of the Islamic caliphate under ISIS in all of Syria.

This war has cost the Syrian population dearly. The UN reported that by January 2015, there were an estimated 220,000 dead, mostly civilians. UNICEF reported that over 500 children had been killed by February, 2012, and another 400 children were reportedly arrested and tortured in Syrian prisons. By mid-April 2015, the opposition activist group Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported: 11021 children killed, 7,049 women killed. Many of the casualties were the result of the regimes use of inhumane barrel bombs and, despite the U.S. "red line" warning - weaponized chemicals.

And while the US administration declares at every opportunity that "Assad has to go", very little has been done, as far as I can see, to make this happen.

So why is the title of this column: "Syria - The End of Assad's Regime?

Three reasons:

1. The once powerful Syrian army, which in 2011numbered over 350,000 servicemen and women in uniform, has suffered over 40,000 dead in four years and many more wounded. Today it numbers less than 150,000. Morale is at rock bottom, recruitment is almost impossible despite aggressive and harsh punishment against draft-dodgers and their families, and desertions are higher than ever.
2. Hezbollah a feared terrorist organization that was less than impressive in combat against ISIS and Jabhat, has suffered very high losses in Syria and is reluctant today to obey Iran's command to send more troops into battle.
3. Iran's forces have suffered major losses including senior commanders. There is a growing feeling in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (the IRGC) that the cost of continuing the fight in Syria is too high, since Iran is also involved in conflicts in Iraq and Yemen.
4. The rebel forces are continuing to strengthen and advance with more aid and weapons from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, while Russia is reducing support for the Assad regime.
5. Today, with the fall of Idlib and Aleppo, Assad is holding only the Palace in Damascus (which at the moment he refuses to leave despite intensive shelling by ISIS) and the coastal strip now nicknamed "Alawistan".

So unless some fantastic deal emerges during the last days of the P5+1 negotiations with Iran that will allow the Iranians and Assad to at least stay, under Russian protection, in an enlarged "Alawistan", then these may very well be the last days leading to the end of Assad's regime.

Tel-Aviv and Baltimore - Uncomfortable Similarities

In a famous TV satirical sketch from 1972 called "The New Immigrants", Israeli actor Uri Zohar (now an orthodox rabbi) and the late actor/singer Arik Einstein lampooned the reactions of recently arrived "veteran" Israelis to newly arriving immigrants. In all the scenes, that stretch from the 1890's to the 1980's, the two are standing on a sandy hill, watching "new" immigrants from different countries (also played by them) arriving in Jaffa Port. Remember - this was satire.

In the first scene (1890's) they are dressed as Bedouin Arabs complaining about how these new pale, Russian immigrants are going to ruin everything about their traditional nomadic life.

In the next (1930's), dressed as established swamp-draining, settlement building Russian pioneers they mock new immigrants from Poland. Next (1940's) they are established Polish farmers mocking a just arriving Yemenite couple (Zohar is the very pregnant wife). Next (also 1940's) the now settled Israeli Yemenites make fun of the German immigrants, who later laugh at the Moroccan Jews in the 1950's, who mock the waves of Russians after the fall of the Iron curtain, etc., etc.

This funny parody was actually based on fact. Every wave of Jews that immigrated to Israel over the last hundred years endured hardship, discrimination by earlier and now-established settlers, and relegation to communities in lesser attractive areas. One could justifiably argue that this was done out of necessity.

There was precious little money, including donations, to settle hostile border areas, build the IDF, fight wars, finance education, provide welfare AND absorb hundreds of thousands of immigrants at the same time. Immigration absorption was, unfortunately a low priority.

However, with all the hardship, virtually all the immigrants, many of whom started in mud-paved tents of the Ma'abarot" (transition camps established to shelter survivors of the Holocaust and North African immigrants in the 1950's), especially the second generation, succeeded, with some government and organizational help, in breaking out of the poverty cycle.

So why haven't the 130,000 plus Ethiopian Jews, who have been in Israel now for over thirty years succeeded like the others? Why are they so frustrated and disenfranchised that they feel compelled to riot, like in Baltimore, against police brutality and lack of support or caring by the Israeli government and local authorities? Why do many feel ostracized today by an Israeli public that received them with open arms just three generations ago?

The answer is complex, embarrassing and not necessarily politically correct. First - there were two categories Immigrants from Ethiopia:

• Those that came from the cities.
• Those that came from remote villages.

The first group was, for the most part, educated; spoke languages, with some having professional degrees or commercial experience. This group was absorbed relatively quickly in Israel.  Many achieved success in business, politics, art, the IDF, sports and diplomacy - representing Israel around the world as heads and staff of Israeli missions and delegations.

In 2013, Ethiopian immigrant Titi Yitayish Ayanow represented Israel in the Miss Universe contest.

The second group, the majority, was totally different. Having been pretty much disconnected from civilization for hundreds of years most had never seen a structure bigger that a straw hut. They had never seen a door handle, sink, running water or anything electrical or gas driven.

When it was clear that the normal process of absorption (several months in an absorption center for full-emersion language, culture, customs orientation and adaptation) was not appropriate here, other systems were tried. Some worked - some not so much.

While first generation absorption has always been difficult, it almost always got better with the second generation once they were drafted, to the IDF, which has always been the "great melting pot" of Israeli society. The IDF prides itself as being color blind (Israelis from Ethiopia serve in every unit and every command position), religion blind (Jews, Muslims, Christians, Druze, Samaritans and atheists serve together), education blind (soldiers and officers are evaluated and promoted by performance, not education level), gender blind (every combat and command position is now open to women), race blind (Arabs and Circassians serve) and social status blind - all recruits start off as a basic trainees on equal footing.

Unfortunately this time the system failed. As Renee Ghert-Zand reported in the May 5^th edition of The Times of Israel: "Although 89% of teenage boys (higher than the national average of 75%) and 62% of teenage girls of Ethiopian heritage serve in the IDF, one third of them end up in IDF prisons." Many are subsequently dishonorably discharged.

And these, together with their younger brothers and sisters, have become the critical mass of frustrated, disenfranchised, jobless young Ethiopian Israelis who live in crowded, run down apartments, turn to minor criminal activities or drugs, feel harassed by the police and invisible to the authorities.

Like in Baltimore - the trigger was a video tape of two Israeli policemen attacking an Ethiopian soldier because he "looked suspicious". This cannot continue. The Israeli government and society dropped the ball. Bibi Netanyahu promised very publicly that he intends to deal with this explosive and growing "festering wound", as president Rivlin called it, at "top priority".

Let's see which situation be resolved first...Baltimore or Tel- Aviv. Hopefully it will be both - and the sooner, the better.

The Islamist Attack in Garland

Though details from the investigation are still coming out, I have absolutely no doubt that Sunday’s attack in Garland, during the “Muhammad Art” contest was a full-fledged planned and prepared Islamist Jihadist terrorism attack against Americans citizens who, having obtained all the necessary permits from the authorities and in full coordination with the police and federal agencies, were legally exercising their Constitutional rights of Free Speech on US soil.

  

I emphasize that because this specific event, a very public demonstration of First Amendment rights (even if they anger or offend others in our society), was held to counterbalance an earlier event that took place in January at the exact same venue.

On January 17, speakers at the “Stand With the Prophet in Honor and Respect” conference in Garland declared that they are trying to start a “movement to defend Prophet Muhammad, his person, and his message.” 

 This theme was very similar to the motive of the Charlie Hebdo jihadist killers: after they had murdered twelve people, one of the gunmen shouted, “We have avenged the Prophet Muhammad.”

The January anti-free speech conference claimed that “Islamophobia” should be punished as a hate crime, and press articles opposing Jihad should be stifled. Speaker after speaker called for legally restricting any negative commentary on Islam, its practices, wars, values or prophets.

  

Siraj Wahhaj, who is the US born charismatic imam of the extremist Al-Taqwa mosque in Brooklyn, the leader of The Muslim Alliance in North America...and an unindicted co-conspirator in the 1993 World Trade Center bombing was the keynote speaker. Wahhaj, an American citizen, has said, amongst other anti-American utterances: “If only Muslims were clever politically, they could take over the United States and replace its constitutional government with a caliphate.”

Despite the fact that statements like this are abominations to most Americans, no one shot at the police and security guards that Saturday, no one tried to blow anything up and no one declared a desire to become a “Shaheed”, a martyr.

  

On the contrary, the human rights advocacy group the American Freedom Defense Initiative (AFDI) the same organization organized yesterday’s event in Garland, held a peaceful demonstration outside that conference on “Islamophobia”.

 

And Sunday two Islamist terrorists drove up in a van with assault rifles and ammunition, shot and wounded a uniformed guard and to everyone’s good fortune were immediately killed by a police officer.

How do we know that they were Islamist terrorists?

1.   ISIS claimed responsibility and that “this was just the beginning”.
2. The two terrorists, Elton Francis Simpson, and Nadir Soofi, were friends and had well known Islamist sympathies. Simpson already had an FBI terrorist file.
3. Simpson had told an FBI informant that he wanted to travel to Somalia to join Al-Shabaab, expressing a desire to get all the “rewards” of being a martyr since he’s going to die sometimes, anyway.
4.  And most incriminatory – Simpson’s twitter account “ Shariah is Light”, posted this just hours before the attack in Garland.

  “Baya”= Absolute allegiance.

“Amirul Mu’mineen = The Commander of the Faithful (currently – Head of ISIS)

“Mujahideen” = One engaged in Jihad.

“Dua” = Sincere Islamic prayer.

So, yes! This was an Islamist terrorist attack, though I seriously doubt if ISIS planned it. Way too amateurish… It may be just a case of “Shaheed (martyr) by cop”. Nevertheless they had assault rifles and got very near a “secure location”.   

These extreme Islamist terrorists will be feted as holy shaheeds, and have a place of honor in Jihadi history. Others will try to copy their "lone wolf" attempt, and ISIS will now compete with Al-Qaeda in attacks on US soil. 

So unfortunately I have to agree with the ISIS statement…this is just the beginning…