A complicated Saudi succession

As of this writing President Obama is leading a delegation of some 30 politicians, advisors, business leaders, etc. on a short condolence visit to Saudi Arabia to honor the late King Abdullah, and meet the new King Salman. Should be simple, dignified and straightforward, right? I’m sure that that’s the way this highly choreographed event will look on TV. But…

The problem is that in the discordant and conflicted House of Saud, where the real battle of succession and influence has only started. The traditional declaration: “The king is dead, long-live the king” is somewhat inaccurate.

According to many Middle East experts with ties to the Royal Family, King Salman is suffering from advanced stages of dementia. That is why King Abdullah, shortly before he died, appointed his younger half-brother Prince Mukrin to the position of “Deputy Crown Prince”. When Salman became king the “deputy” was dropped from Mukrin’s title.

But according to the latest reports – King Salman (obviously being handled by family members close to him) has already started the process of removing Mukrin and other Abdullah appointees in favor of his own sons and grandsons. This is understandable, sort of, since it brings the royal blood line back to the “full” Sudeiri faction of the family, which was cut off when Abdullah became king. Neither he, nor Mukrin are sons of Hassa al-Sudairi (hence the “half-brother” moniker). Hassa was the favorite of the 22 legal wives of the Kingdom’s founder; Abdulaziz Ibn Saud, and the mother of six of the last 7 kings. Salman is the last of the “Sudairi Seven”.

King Abdulaziz had 36 sons that survived to adulthood and numerous daughters (though the exact number was never logged…). The fact that the “Sudairi Seven”, thanks to their powerful mother and her family held on to the centers of power (and extreme wealth) never sat well with the other princes and their clans. Infighting has always been an issue. According to observers the calm surface of national mourning is hiding a bubbling undercurrent of factional and clan regrouping, deals, threats and agreements that will continue for some time.

Israel will be monitoring these developments. It is no longer a secret that for some years now Israel and Saudi Arabia have enjoyed an excellent relationship based on common regional interests (peace process) and threats (Iran). The feeling in Israel is that regardless of which clan or faction eventually take over or retain the reins of power, there is no reason to believe that these mutually beneficial ties will change any time in the near future.

As for relations with the US, which are very strained right now, that would depend on three issues:

1. The US standing by its “red line” commitment to stop Iran’s nukes.

2. The US supporting the Asisi regime in Egypt.

3. Which faction or clan actually ends up in power, since various family factions have been developing independent relations with Russia, China, and even extreme Islamist groups, particularly Al-Qaida, Taliban, Hamas and ISIS.

We will certainly be watching, and analyzing exactly who was in the room when President Obama met with Salman on Tuesday, in what order they were introduced and who actually spoke.

 Remember, in the Arab tradition, symbolism and gestures can speak louder than words.

Unintended Consequences

On Sunday a small convoy of unmarked civilian vehicles travelling near the Israeli border on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights was destroyed by air-to-ground missiles.

According to eyewitnesses two drones were seen crossing from the Israeli side before the attack and returning afterwards. Other reports claimed an Israeli attack helicopter fired two missiles at two vehicles, killing several Hezbollah and Iranian military personnel, including commanders. Here is what has been now been confirmed.

According to Hezbollah, the vehicles were attacked by missiles from Israeli aircraft and several Hezbollah senior commanders and fighters were killed, including 25 year old Jihad Mughniyeh – son of Imad Mughniyeh, the former legendary Hezbollah chief of operations who was killed in Damascus in 2008, when the headrest in his car exploded. Hezbollah has always blamed Israel for the murder.

His son Jihad was being groomed by the Iranians and Hezbollah chief Hassan Nassralla to follow in his father’s footsteps. Just a few months ago Jihad was appointed commander of the Hezbollah forces on the Golan, and was preparing attacks against Israel.

Among the Iranian officers killed was Revolutionary Guard Corp General Mohammed Ali Allah Dadi. He was a senior expert on missile deployment and was sent by Iran to mentor Mughniyeh and work with him on building an Iranian missile infrastructure on the Golan Heights against Israel.

Both Iran and Hezbollah blame Israel for the attacks and promise dire retribution: "These martyrdoms proved the need to stick with jihad. The Zionists must await ruinous thunderbolts," Revolutionary Guards' chief General Mohammad Ali Jafari was quoted on Tuesday as saying by Fars news agency. This, Mohammad Ali Jafari said, will be "a new beginning point for the imminent collapse of the Zionist Regime."

"The Revolutionary Guards will fight to the end of the Zionist regime. We will not rest easy until this epitome of vice is totally deleted from the region's geopolitics."

While Israel has officially neither confirmed nor denied that it was responsible, in an interview this week with Reuters, a “senior Israeli security source” left little doubt. The Israeli source confirmed that Israel carried out the strike. Asked if Israel expected Iranian or Hezbollah retaliation, the source said: "They are almost certain to respond. We are anticipating that." 

"We did not expect the outcome in terms of the stature of those killed - certainly not the Iranian general," the source went on to say. "We thought we were hitting an enemy field unit that was on its way to carry out an attack on us at the frontier fence." "We got the alert, we spotted the vehicle, identified it was an enemy vehicle and took the shot. We saw this as a limited tactical operation."  

Troops and civilians in northern Israel are on heightened alert. Roads near the border have been closed as convoys of artillery and tank units can be seen heading north. Iron Dome rocket interceptor units have been moved from the center and deployed near the Syrian border.

But will this evolve into a full scale “Third Lebanon War”? I doubt it.  Iran and Hezbollah have too much to lose and nothing to gain. The estimated 150,000 medium and long range heavy missiles that Iran today controls in Lebanon and that can certainly do serious, if not catastrophic damage to Israel are the only insurance policy it has left against an Israeli attack on its nuclear weapons program.

Israel has made it clear that they will be immediately destroyed during the first hours of the next war.

Yes – Iran and Hezbollah will without a doubt try to avenge Sunday’s attack, but it will probably be against Israeli and Jewish targets overseas, preferably in the US were they get the added bonus of humiliating the “Great Satan”.

2015 - an ominous start...

Last month I predicted that “2015 will be a very interesting year”. Reports this week from France, the Middle East and around the world confirm that prediction…and more! 

Here are just some of the headlines we’ll be following and commenting on in the New Year.
 
Islamist terrorism: What we know so far about the two professionally executed terrorist attacks in Paris against the satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo and a kosher store is that they were long planned operations ordered by al-Qaida’s leader Ayman Al- Zawahiri and conducted by French based “sleeper cell” of AQAP – Yemen based al-Qaida in the Arab Peninsula. Here are translated recent Tweets by Bakhsaruf al-Danqulah – a senior AQAP leader active on Twitter (courtesy of Gloria Center):

1. Many followers are asking about the link between al-Qa’ida and those who carried out the Charlie Hebdo attack. The link is direct and the operation was supervised by AQAP.

2. The operation was directed by AQAP’s leadership. And they chose these targets out of desire to avenge the insult to the Holy Prophet.

3. And in France in particular for its undisguised role in the war on Islam and oppressed peoples.

4. The operation is an implementation of the threat of Sheikh Osama bin Laden in which he warned the West of the consequence in the long run of affront to the sanctities of Muslims.

5. He said in his message to the West: “If there is no limit to your freedom of speech, your chests will become broadened targets for our actions.”

6. The organization delayed implementation of the operation for security reasons dependent on the operatives. And the operation has a number of messages for all Western states.

7. Infringing on Islam’s sanctities and protecting those who mock them will bear a very heavy price. And the consequence will be severe and terrible.

8. The crimes of the Western states- especially America, Britain and France- will be turned on their heads within their abodes.

9. The policy of striking the far enemy which has remained for al-Qa’ida under Zawahiri’s leadership will continue in the realization of its aims, until the West falls back on itself.

10. The policy of the mujahideen of al-Qa’ida’s media incitement, especially Inspire magazine, has produced splendid results in the defining of its aims and marshalling potential.

11. For one of the authors put his name and photo [i.e. that of the editor of Charlie Hebdo] as a dead or alive target for the mujahideen, so the Western states should expect evil consequences and ruins by God’s power.

Al- Danqulah concludes with a call for people to disseminate and translate his tweets. The threat is clear and unequivocal.

According to most analysts, 2015 could easily become the Year of Islamist Worldwide Terrorism – coming soon to a public place near you…

Rallies, marches, demonstrations and speeches will not stop them.

But we should pay careful attention to the courageous speech that Egyptian president Abdul-Fatah al-Sisi gave last month front of leading Islamic clerics and scholars at the sacred Al-Azhar University in Cairo. It may get him assassinated, but if other Moslem leaders follow his lead, it could be a start to a completely different future. Click here for a short clip with English subtitles.

Israel Elections (March 17): Netanyahu won the Likud primaries but lost several key players. Tzippi Livne joined forces with the labor Party to form a combined list, which most current polls show is running head to head with Bibi’s Likud. Another centrist party, formed by former Likud member of Knesset Moshe Kahalon, is gaining steam by recruiting topsecurity experts to its list, and it looks like the Sephardic orthodox party, Shas, is regrouping.

Right now there is a plausible chance that with successful coalition negotiations after the March 17 elections…Yitzhak Herzog could be the next Israeli prime minister. But a lot can happen in the interim. 

We’ll stay tuned and keep you informed.