2015 Will Be A Very Interesting Year

If there is one thing that over 40 years of both participating in, and analyzing ongoing events in the Middle East has taught me – it’s that it is impossible and naïve to try to predict the future. Even “legitimate” prophets got it wrong most of the time…those were the “prophesies” that never got into the bible or history books.

So with all that in mind – I’m going to stick my neck out and take an educated guess about what we may expect to possibly see in the coming year in Israel, the Middle East and here in the US.

Israel:

• With opposition to Netanyahu growing within his own party, even if he wins the Likud primaries next week there is no certainty that he will lead the next government after the March 17 general elections.
• Regardless of the election results, Israel will remain strong and capable of dealing with any and all current and foreseeable security challenges over the year. The excellent choice of Gen. Gadi Eizenkot as the new IDF Chief of Staff strengthens that conviction, and also sends a message to Iran that Israel is not making idle threats. 

The Palestinians:

• Deepening divisions between Fatah and Hamas, and within a now split leadership in Fatah itself; will lead to increased terrorist attacks against Israel as well as violent infighting between Palestinian factions as each group positions itself for the “post Abu Mazen” era.

The Peace Talks

• Despite renewed US pressure and a so-far feeble Palestinian attempt at getting a UN Security Council resolution to force Israel to withdraw from the West Bank, in 2015 there will probably be no serious continuation of the talks. Of course Israel will be blamed for the failure, despite the fact that the PLO walked away from the table. 

ISIS

• Will continue to grow, expand in numbers and territory of the “Caliphate” and pose a direct threat to Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Europe. In an attempt to appease ISIS, more European countries will distance themselves from Israel and the US, and even develop diplomatic relations with the Islamic State.

Iran 

• The Ayatollah and IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp) regime will continue to develop not only nuclear “breakout” capability, but in all probability one or two testable nuclear devices. 

• Since no other country seems to have the intent to stop them militarily, Netanyahu – or the next Israeli Prime Minister - may have to take very tough and risky decisions.

Islamist-lead and inspired terrorism

• Under the inspiration of the ISIS highly professional and slick PR and Social Media campaign, and the technical and planning expertise, leadership abilities and blind anti-American obsession of Al-Qaeda, virtually every terrorism research and analysis think-tank in the world is predicting a major uptick in Islamist terrorism attacks and specifically in the US and against US interests and targets around the world.

• These attacks, or attempted attacks will range from highly sophisticated and well planned 9/11 style mass casualty strikes, already being prepared by Al-Qaeda and its affiliate organizations, to local radicalized home-grown cells capable of inflicting damage on utilities and infrastructure or attacking schools or entertainment areas, and down to the “lone wolf” terrorist – who is not necessarily affiliated with any group.

So here’s my “guestimate” of 2015 in a nut-shell:

• A new government in Israel – with or without Bibi.
• Iran gets closer to nuclear weapons, or actually produces one.
• Israel gets stronger, prepares for new threats and absorbs more immigrants, mainly from Europe, US and Australia.
• Israel establishes new partnerships with regional countries.
• Ongoing and accelerated Islamization of Europe.
• US led war against ISIS and Al Qaeda expands, though the coalition changes.
• Worldwide anti-Semitism grows. Israel benefits from increased immigration.
• America’s image as a world leader continues to deteriorate…unless it eliminates Iran’s nuclear program militarily. (Unfortunately taking down North Korea’s internet for a few hours doesn’t count!).

In summary: Any one, none or all of the above predictions may pan out.

The only thing I am absolutely certain about is that 2015 will be a very interesting year.

If you want to be happy - go to Israel

If you only got your information about Israel over the past year from news reports and “talking heads” on TV and radio, you could be excused for having the impression that Israelis would be among the most distraught, paranoid,  mistrustful and fearful people on the planet.

After all, what other country is surrounded by armed enemies that constantly declare their commitment to its destruction? What other country is told by a soon-to-be-nuclear enemy that it is a “cancer that must be eradicated”, or “blight on the face of the earth that must be “burned to the ground”?”

What other small country suffers almost daily terrorist attacks and occasional rocket barrages, and yet is criticized, threatened and sanctioned by its supposedly “good friends” when it dares to take the necessary measures to defend its people and its homeland?

I could go on about anti-Zionism demonstrations on college campuses or the worldwide anti-Israel BDS (Boycott, Diversify, and Sanction) movement, and frequent elections...but you get the picture. The Israelis have every right to be...well, at least a bit uptight.

And yet, with all that, the Israelis are actually happy...happier than almost all the other people in the world – including the US!

Proof - an annual survey ranked Israel the 11th-happiest country in the world, ahead of the United States, and far ahead of its neighbors in the region.

As reported in the Times of Israel on September 10^th, The World Happiness Report, published three months ago, was based on data collected for 156 countries between 2010 and 2012. Denmark, Norway and Switzerland took the top three spots.

The report ranked the happiness of the world’s nations based on a “life evaluation score,” a number between 0 and 10 that measures several factors including health, family and job security, and social factors like political freedom, social networks and lack of government corruption.

The index was a collaborative effort between the Vancouver School of Economics, the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research, the London School of Economics, and Columbia University.

Israel jumped three spots in the rankings from last year, coming in just behind Australia (10th). The United States dropped six spots, coming in at 17th, and the United Kingdom placed 22nd.

Israelis are much happier when compared to their neighbors in the Middle East. Jordan ranked 74th in the survey, Lebanon 97th, and Egypt 130th.

War-ravaged Syria ranked 148th on the list, and Togo’s citizens were ranked least happy.

One of the goals of the report was to challenge the assumption that happiness is directly correlated to wealth. While the countries that are happiest by and large do tend to be the wealthiest ones, it is social factors that play a larger role in the happiness of those countries, including the absence of government corruption and the degree of personal freedom.

So now, as 2014 draws to an end – we can add another great category to the Israelis long list of world leading achievements. In addition to being pioneering, resourceful, dynamic, groundbreaking, industrious, inventive, compassionate, courageous, ingenious, revolutionary and more than occasionally a little bit “chutzpadik”...Israelis are HAPPY!

Israeli Elections - A Guide to the Perplexed

On Monday this week the Knesset, Israel’s single-house parliament, unanimously passed legislation to self-dissolve, and hold national elections on March 17, 2015.

Since the government (Israel’s executive branch) receives its powers from the Knesset (the legislative branch”), Bibi Netanyahu’s government is automatically “resigned”. 

That does not mean that Israel is without a government. The outgoing cabinet continues to function with full executive powers and authority as an “interim” government until April or May, when the newly elected Knesset is sworn in and seated, so that it can pass a vote of confidence in the new government, which is then sworn in and starts functioning immediately.

The framework of the Israeli electoral system is defined in Article 4 of the Basic Law: The Knesset, which states: "The Knesset shall be elected by general, national, direct, equal, secret and proportional elections, in accordance with the Knesset Elections Law."

• General: On Election Day, voters cast one ballot for a political party to represent them in the Knesset. Every Israeli citizen aged 18 or older has the right to vote, and every citizen aged 21 or older can be elected to the Knesset. (The president, state comptroller, judges and senior public officials, as well as the chief-of-staff and high-ranking military officers, cannot stand for election to the Knesset unless they have resigned their position at least 100 days before the elections.) 
• National: The entire country constitutes a single electoral constituency. 
• Direct: The Knesset, the Israeli parliament, is elected directly by the voters, not through a body of electors. 
• Equal: All votes cast are equal in weight. 
• Secret: Elections are by secret ballot. 
• Proportional: The 120 Knesset seats are assigned in proportion to each party's percentage of the total national vote.

Knesset elections are based on a vote for a party rather than for individuals. Prior to the elections, each party presents its platform and a list of candidates to the Election Committee. A list deposited with the Committee is “carved in stone” and cannot be changed or revised until the NEXT election. 

Parties seated in the outgoing Knesset can automatically stand for re-election.

Other parties can present their candidacy after getting signatures of 2,500 eligible voters and depositing a bond, which is refunded only if they succeed in winning at least one Knesset seat.

Knesset seats are assigned in proportion to each party's percentage of the total national vote. So if, say, a party gets 20% of the total amount of legal votes cast in that election, then it will be allocated 20% of the seats (24).

The number and order of members entering the new Knesset for each party corresponds exactly to its list of candidates deposited for that election. There are no by-elections in Israel. If an MK resigns or dies during the term, then the next person on that party's list automatically replaces him/her. 

The Central Elections Committee, headed by a justice of the Supreme Court is responsible for conducting and supervising the elections. It has the authority to prevent a party or list from participating in elections if its objectives or actions, expressly or by implication, include one of the following: 

• Negation of the existence of the State of Israel as the state of the Jewish people;
• Negation of the democratic character of the State; 
• Incitement to racism. 

Election Day in Israel is an official holiday so that everyone can participate .Soldiers on active duty vote in special polling stations in their units. Special arrangements are made for prison inmates to vote, as well as for those confined to hospital. Israeli law does not provide for absentee ballots, and voting takes place only Israeli soil. The only exceptions are Israeli citizens serving on Israeli ships (both navy and civilian) and in Israeli embassies and consulates abroad. 

As soon as the votes are tallied and confirmed by the Election Committee, the new Knesset is sworn in and begins to function. This creates an interesting situation because the “old” Interim Government is still in place and running the country. . .

Following consultations with the new Knesset factions, the president gives one Knesset member, who seems to have the support of at least 61 members, the responsibility of forming a government. 

This “Prime Minister designate” now has 28 days to present to the Knesset a list of ministers for approval, together with an outline of proposed government guidelines. All the ministers must be Israeli citizens and residents of Israel; they don’t have to be Knesset members, but most usually are.  

To date, all governments have been based on coalitions of several parties, as no party since 1949 has received the minimum of 61 Knesset seats to be able to form a government by itself.

As you can see – in Israel – unlike in the US, the Prime Minister’s government draws its power and authority from the Knesset, which is elected by the people.

A week ago I was convinced that Bibi Netanyahu was a lock to continue as Prime Minister after this election. Today, with all the shameless deal making, political ship-jumping, backstabbing and foreign “intervention”…I’m not so sure, not so sure at all. I guess we’ll have to wait until after the elections.

Iranian Nukes-Remember "No deal is better than a bad deal"?

Last week I predicted that the November 24th deadline to reach an agreement between Iran and the "P5+1" countries (US, Russia, UK, France, China) would lead to either a “good” deal, a “bad” deal, or a “terrible” deal (a short extension of the talks while trying to maintain the current UN imposed sanctions and intrusive inspection protocol).

On Monday we found out that following recent threats and insults by the ailing Grand Ayatollah and his henchmen, the P5+1 group agreed to not a 'BAD' deal, or even a 'TERRIBLE' deal.

After a year of promising the world that America will never let Iran construct or acquire nuclear weapons..."period", the US, leading a band of weak-kneed world leaders, agreed to what can only be described, at first blush, as a "TERRIBLY BAD" deal:

• Talks are extended for 7 months 
• .Iran continues enrichment. 
• The Arak heavy water reactor will be built and possibly go “hot”. 
• No effective monitoring or inspections will be conducted. 
• No access of the UN’s IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) officials to a suspected nuclear weapons testing base.  
• Iran will get over $700,000,000 a month from unfrozen funds.
• US (and probably Israeli) military strikes are effectively suspended until July 2015.

Bottom line: As of last Monday, Iran is, for all intents and purposes, a break-out nuclear military power, possibly capable of detonating a rudimentary device within 6-8 weeks.

It can still be stopped - but only by a country that has both the ability AND the intent to do so. Only four countries in the world today have the ability: The US, Russia, China and Israel. The first three clearly have no intent. And because of this absurd UN sanctioned “talk extension”; Israel now has to wait at least until April...unless the Iranians launch a missile attack on Israel from Lebanon beforehand.

Or does it?

At second blush though, it appears that the Israelis and all P5+1 countries are “satisfied” with the seven month drag-on of the talks. To understand that we have to go back to last November when everyone agreed to a limited time attempt at diplomacy, but were united in declaring that “no deal is better than a bad deal”.

And that, depending on one’s view point, is exactly what happened: Since there was neither a “good” deal nor “bad” deal, what we have is a “no deal”.

Recent reports by the UN’s IAEA and foreign intelligence agencies confirm that during the past twelve months of talks Iran did not fulfill any of its obligations according to the November 2013 “Joint Plan of Action”, agreement with the P5+1, that were a condition of conducting the negotiations in the first place, and easing the sanctions.

Since Iranian leaders say that they have no intention (or incentive since the sanctions have been breached) of fulfilling those obligations – there is no reason to assume that the extended talks will have different results. President Rouhani went on Iranian TV to declare the extension a victory, saying “the centrifuges are spinning and will never stop.”

So effectively we are in a state of “no deal” – back to the situation a year ago. The only difference is that in the interim Iran has added more enriched Uranium to its stockpiles, constructed and installed newer and more efficient centrifuges, advanced and upgraded production and development of nuclear warheads and long-range missiles (though intel reports say they are still having problems with a reliable missile deliverable warhead) and is about to complete construction of a heavy water reactor.

Which logically should automatically reinstate the “Red Lines” of both the US and Israel. I don’t know about America’s…but I have no doubt that Israel’s red line was never taken off the table.

By the way – the fact that Israel this week entered into election mode must also be taken into account.