Thanksgiving thoughts

Thanksgiving, like the Fourth of July, is the quintessential American national holiday. As we sit down to our Thanksgiving dinners this week, some of us will be debating whether (aside from our health, personal successes and loving families)…is there really anything to be truly grateful for this year? Let’s look at the Middle East.

IRAN

Since I’m writing this on Friday, November 21^st, just 3 days before the November 24^th deadline to conclude the Iranian-P5+1 nuclear deal, and as reports from the last-minute negotiations in Vienna at this moment do not bode well, I can only speculate as to what may have happened on Monday to be thankful about. 

Did Iran agree to a “good deal” that will result in a complete and verifiable end to its nuclear weapons program? Now that would certainly be a reason to celebrate and give thanks. 

Was a half-baked “bad deal” signed which would effectively leave Iran just weeks from nuclear “break-out” capability?  Then thanks…but no thanks, nothing here to be grateful about. 

Did the US and the P-5+1 negotiators agree to extend the deadline for the agreement once again – perhaps “sweetening the pot” for the Iranians by easing even more of the sanctions in the interim period without getting anything in return? This, of course, is the absolutely worst case scenario in my view, as well as that of most Middle East analysts, since it enables the Iranians to:

1. continue to enrich Uranium,

2. complete construction of the Arak Heavy Water nuclear reactor that will produce weapons-grade Plutonium,

3. continue research and development of nuclear weapons at their secret facility in Parchin, and

4. continue building and storing missiles capable of reaching Saudi Arabia, Israel and Europe together with ICBMs (Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles) capable of hitting the US.

ISRAEL AND JERUSALEM

The Third Intifada, as I wrote in this column two weeks ago, is not going to wind down any time soon. Last week saw a tragic escalation when two Israeli Arabs from East Jerusalem entered a synagogue in a West Jerusalem orthodox neighborhood with carving knives, hatchets and a gun. They butchered to death four orthodox Jews, several of them Rabbis, and a Druze police officer who came to their help, wounding several more. The use of cleavers, knives and an ax is symbolic and very disturbing. The traditional battle cry in Arabic by Islamists and terrorists to kill Jews and Israelis, heard repeatedly in Jerusalem in the past weeks from Palestinian rioters and their leaders is: “Itbach al-Yahud” – literally “Butcher (or “slaughter”) the Jews”. Horrific crime scene photographs and witness reports confirm that that’s exactly what these terrorists did. The victims were slaughtered like animals and some were American citizens.  Thankfully, the terrorists were killed before they could hurt more people. 

The office of the president of the Palestinian authority issued a mild condemnation against “killing of innocents on both sides” while Abu Mazen himself continued to praise the “holy martyrs” who are defending the “sacred Al Aksa” from the Zionist Aggressors” and called for many others to join them.

As we sit at our Thanksgiving tables remembering the pilgrims and their leap of faith across the “pond” to escape religious persecution and establish this great country, we should also remember the young Jewish pioneers from the nineteenth century who also escaped persecution in Europe and Russia, and with a dream of returning to their ancestral homeland traveled great distances, at great risk and hardship. They, too established an “Old-New” country, a country that has absorbed millions of immigrants and despite attempts to this day by overwhelming forces to destroy it, is today a modern, thriving, successful “light–unto-the- nations”.

Israelis – both Jews and non-Jews are proud of their country, though they will frequently debate the best ways for it to move forward.

Everyone in the world today benefits from Israeli inventions and developments in medicine, high-tech, sports, environment and more.

Even countries that “hate” Israel secretly maintain ties with it and would love to mimic its success.

And most of all – we Jews, after 2,000 years of exile and persecution have our ancestral homeland back. Israel is strong, independent, confident…and is here forever.

So, YES!  There is much to be grateful for this Thanksgiving.
                                                                                                                                                                        

The "Third Intifada" is here

The headlines in Tuesday’s editions of several Israeli newspapers said it all: “More Israelis killed by terror in past month than last two years”. As of this writing, Tuesday afternoon November 11, six Israelis have been murdered this month alone in terrorist attacks involving  deliberately using cars to mow down people waiting on line at bus and train stops, and single-terrorist knife attacks in the street.  In all of 2012-2013 there were only five terrorist murders in Israel and the West Bank.

How do we know they were terrorist attacks and not, at least in the case of the car crashes, just “unfortunate accidents”? Because Hamas took responsibility for all the “heroic acts of resistance”, and all the perpetrators were Hamas terrorists or related to Hamas terrorists. 

To make matters worse, the so-called “moderate” Palestinian Authority president, Abu Mazen, issued official declarations praising the attackers who “died as noble martyrs” in the ultimate struggle against the illegal occupiers of Palestine, and called on all Palestinian to “use whatever means necessary” to expel the “Zionist invaders” from the Dome of the Rock.

Abu Mazen also wrote a presidential condolence letter to the mother of Islamic Jihad terrorist Mu'taz Hijazi, who was killed after seriously injuring Temple Mount activist Yehuda Glick in a drive-by assassination attempt two weeks ago in Jerusalem. He praised the terrorist as a hero of Palestine who died a pure martyr’s death and will be remembered for generations, and called on all Palestinians to learn from his example.

This week, PA TV broadcasted Abu Mazen calling for violence against Jews in Jerusalem nineteen times within a three day period. In the broadcast, Abu Mazen called for “Ribat” (religious war over land claimed to be Islamic) on the Temple Mount.

Abu Mazen told the Palestinian people, “It’s not enough for us to say: ‘The settlers have arrived at the Mosque.’ They have come, and they must not come to the Sanctuary (i.e., Temple Mount). We have to prevent them, in any way whatsoever, from entering the Sanctuary. This is our Sanctuary, our Al-Aqsa and our Church of the Holy Sepulcher. They have no right to enter it. They have no right to defile it. We must prevent them. Let us stand before them with chests bared to protect our holy places.”

So the call for violence against Israelis comes directly from the Palestinian leader the Israelis are supposed to be negotiating with in good faith, while he coordinates these terror attacks with Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

So what has brought these usually antagonistic groups together…and has riled up the rest of the Muslim world, including countries that are usually friendly to Israel? Can anyone say: Al-Jazeera? Let me try to explain briefly.

To all followers of Islam, the Al-Aksa mosque and the Dome of the Rock compound in Jerusalem is the third holiest shrine in the world, after the “Sacred Mosque” (Kaaba) in Mecca and the Tomb of Mohammed in Medina.

The very presence of non-Muslims anywhere in the Al-Aksa/Dome of the Rock compound is offensive to many believers. The presence of armed Israeli soldiers or police, in any number, is considered repugnant, and entering either structure with shoes on is a major insult to all Muslims, worldwide.

The first “Intifada” (“uprising” or “shaking off” of Israeli rule) was triggered in 1987 when an IDF vehicle accidentally swerved at a checkpoint killing four Palestinians.

The second Intifada (“the Al-Aksa Intifada) was triggered in 2000 when Arik Sharon made a highly publicized and provocative visit to the Al Aksa compound. And while he was careful to remove his shoes before entering the Dome of the Rock, his bodyguards and the soldiers protecting him didn’t.

Today, under the incitement and orchestration of Hamas and mainly Abu Mazen and Fatah, young, fired up and well paid Palestinian youth, who have prepared rocks, bottles and Molotov cocktails behind barricades just inside the massive doors of the Dome of the Rock wait for orders on their smartphones.

Once Al-Jazeera and other media outlets have positioned their cameras according to instructions they received electronically from Hamas or Fatah, The order is given and the youth outside start attacking the soldiers and police protecting the complex. They then run in, followed by the soldiers, who are hit with barrages of rocks, bottles, iron bars and cinderblocks. 

Once they enter the structure to arrest the attackers and restore order two things are immediately broadcast worldwide: Blood flowing on the “sacred” floor of the building (from non-lethal weapons and ammo used by the soldiers) and military boots entering in hot pursuit of the barefoot rock throwers.

And the Muslim world sees it all. And the “Lone Wolf” Jihadists are enraged, and they hear Abu Mazen’s call to “use any method”, and they get in their car, or grab a gun, knife or tire iron…and go out to kill. 

Whether they end up calling this “The Dome of the Rock Intifada”, or – more appropriately: “Abu Mazen’s Intifada”…the “Third Intifada” is here.

Strange as it may seem, what happens to any hopes of a “peace process” any time soon really depend less on these events in Jerusalem, and more on the November 24 deadline for the Iranian Nuke deal.

And that nexus is REALLY complicated. I’ll discuss it next week.

While you were voting

By the time you read this column, you are probably recovering from a post-elections hangover – either because on Tuesday night you were either celebrating what, in your opinion, was a “great” election result”…or were trying to drown a “terrible one”. 

Either way, believe it or not, while everyone here was focusing on the elections, events in Israel and the Middle East continued to develop and make headlines.

So for the benefit of our readers – here is a summary of this past week.

1.  The “chickenshit” affair: 

• I’m still digging on this and will do a full analysis in a future column. All I can say at this time (Nov 4) is that the more information I uncover, the worse it looks.

2.  The peace process: 

• Following numerous rumors that the US is preparing to present new and innovative proposals to Israel and the Palestinians to resume negotiations, State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said on Monday: "It's up to the parties to take steps. We know what the issues are. We know what the conditions would be. But it's up to them." "We're obviously having a range of discussions and conversations with them privately, but there are no plans to introduce a peace plan.” 

3,  Iranian Nukes:

• According to the interim agreement signed last November between Iran and the P5+1 group (US, Russia, China, France, UK and Germany), in exchange for a gradual and reciprocal easing of sanctions, Iran was to take specific measures, under supervision of the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that would delay its ability to “break-out” into nuclear weapons production.
• During this time negotiations were to be conducted toward signing a final agreement, on November 24, 2014, that would verifiably end Iran’s nuclear weapons ambitions. 
• An IAEA report published last week said that Iran had not fulfilled its obligations according to the November 2013 agreement, and remains today at, or very close to, “breakout” stage, with the ability to build  bombs within 1-2 months.
• The negotiations on the final agreement have stalled, though are scheduled to renew in Oman next week. 

The Israelis and Sunni Arab states, including; Saudi Arabia, Egypt, The Emirates, Turkey and others are very concerned that recent reports from highly reliable Washington sources indicate that in an effort to get Iran to join the coalition against the Islamic State (ISIL), the US administration is willing to make major concessions to Iran (“A Bad Deal”), or even worse – agree to postpone the November 24 deadline. Either will ease the UN Security Council imposed sanctions and enable Iran to effectively become a nuclear power. 

Ray Taqey, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations wrote in Tuesday’s Washington Post:  “As the Nov. 24 deadline approaches, Iran has finally come to the crossroads, and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and many hardline elements seem ready to forge ahead with their nuclear ambitions…hard-liners believe that isolation from the international community can best preserve Iran's ideological identity. This siege mentality drives Iran's quest f or nuclear arms and their deterrent power.” 

So if the Iranian leadership has made the decision to “break-out” to nuclear weapon status – doesn’t that cross the original US “red line”? Isn’t that, according to promises made to Israel and the Saudis over a year ago, when the US was supposed to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities to “degrade and destroy” them? If that is the case then why is the US seemingly bending over backwards to sign a bad deal? 

Or is the US relying on Israel’s “red line” vis-à-vis Iranian nukes? But that brings us back full circle to the “chickenshit” affair…   

As you can see – Middle East dynamics don’t have time to pause for American elections.