The Syrian Conundrum
At his Aug. 20, 2012, news conference, president Obama declared that the use of chemical weapons in Syria would be an American “red line” that if crossed, would draw “consequences”
On August 30, Secretary of State John Kerry confirmed that Assad’s troops, under the command of his brother Maher, have recently killed over 1,400 Syrian civilians with weaponised Sarin nerve gas. There is also evidence that on August 29, Napalm was fired by Assad’s forces into a schoolyard causing several deaths and numerous horrific injuries, mainly to children. All the casualties in both attacks were Sunni Muslims.
Since there is no question that the president’s “red line” has been trampled by Assad, everyone in the Middle East is waiting to see what the promised “consequences” will be.
And that’s there’s conundrum:
• Bombing the chemical weapon stockpiles, which are located in or near highly populated areas, is not a viable option.
• Launching a robust military operation against Assad and his forces will be seen, on the one hand, as a clear message that American “red lines” are serious (attention Iran!). On the other hand it will be perceived as US support of the rebel groups, some of whom are anti-American jihadists, or directly affiliated with Al-Qaeda.
• Doing nothing, or just a mild slap-on-the-wrist, will be seen as US support for Iran’s puppets Assad and Hezbollah, not to mention the shredding of the last remnants of American prestige and credibility in the Middle East.
But is there another option? Actually…yes: In my opinion the swift removal, either by capture and trial, or “extreme prejudice” measures, of Basher al-Assad and his brother Maher, would eventually create an environment for a negotiated settlement to partition Syria into four autonomous states: Sunni, Alawite/Christian, Kurd and Druze.
US Special Forces are more than capable of executing this type of surgical military operation.
And most important - it would send a clear message to Iran about the seriousness of American “red lines”.
Agree or disagree – that’s my opinion.
After chemical attacks by the Assad regime against Syrian Sunni Moslems, there is talk of the US intervening militarily in Syria.
The Middle East effects the US and Israel. This column will give TJP readers a weekly analysis of current events in that region.
In my opinion, there are five root causes of the current conflicts in the region.
1. The Sunni-Shiite Split: (Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Iran, Lebanon) After Muhammad’s death in 632 CE. There was a dispute whether the next leader (Caliph) should be a blood relative (his cousin Ali) or a non-related “companion”. This conflict led to a permanent split in Islam between the “Ali Faction” (“Shiiat Ali”) and the “Sunnah” (“Pathway” of Muhammad). They have been fighting bitterly ever since. Today 80-90% of the world’s Moslems are Sunni, with 10-20% Shiite. The Shiites, persecuted for 1400 years, believe that when Iran has nuclear weapons, they will dominate.
2. The radicalization of Sunnis: (Egypt, Bahrain, Turkey, Libya, Tunisia, Morocco, Jordan, Pakistan, Afghanistan, etc.). With the establishment of Wahhabism in Arabia in the 18th century and the founding of the fundamentalist Moslem Brotherhood (MB) in 1928, many in the Sunni denomination became entrenched in an “Islam is the solution” ideology that rejects Western values and cultures as anti-Islamic satanic temptations to be opposed and defeated. The MB rejects the very concept of statehood, having two declared goals:
a. That the world follows strict Sharia (Islamic) law.
b. The reestablishment of a worldwide Caliphate, replacing today’s states, countries and political systems.
3. The creation of artificial countries after WW1: 90% of the countries in the Middle East today did not exist before 1920. The victors carved the defeated Ottoman Empire into political states, without consideration of the ethnic, religious, tribal, language, cultural or historic relations between different peoples, tribes and clans caught within the new boundaries. The created states include: Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Jordan, Yemen, Lebanon, Egypt, UAE, Syria, Tunisia, Libya, Morocco, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Sudan and Algeria. Military dictators ruled these countries, maintaining stability, relations with the West, growing economies and security. They persecuted opposition, mainly from the MB and Islamist groups that opposed their ties to the US as abhorrent to Islam. But then came…
4. The “Arab Spring”: Lauded throughout the world the, wide-spread demonstrations toppled the pro-West dictators and brought democratic elections. Unfortunately in virtually every country the party that was elected represented the best organized religious organization: The MB. Today in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Jordan and Morocco we see the backlash to those elections.
5. “Desert Culture”: For millennia the peoples of the Middle East have lived under an accepted social and legal code that evolved from living in the desert. Concepts of “honor”, “dignity”, “respect”, “trust”, “credibility” and especially “blood revenge” are integral parts of life. The Ottoman Turks conducted their empire accordingly. The Israelis respect the “law of the desert”.
With the US and Europe getting involved in Syria, they would be wise to remember these root causes of the conflicts.
Agree or disagree – that’s my opinion.
Southwest Jewish Congress was formed in 2009 with the vision and leadership of Founding Chair, Harry Ploss, and a group of committed board members who believed that understanding the complex challenges facing the U.S. and Israel in the Middle East today, will enable us to preserve our Constitutional rights and freedoms tomorrow. It was determined that the way to accomplish this was to provide the community unique briefings on Israel and the Middle East, to initiate programming on threats to the U.S. Constitution and to celebrate diversity in our community.
